FlyBe - 6
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Flybe's market segment is the problem, I'm not sure that shuffling the Directors will have any positive impact, they provide in the main a good service with a fleet that's about as efficient as possible, but on many routes there are cheaper options from down the road and putting more Meds on won't help because their aircraft are not big enough to compete with an 319 or 738.
Lets face it the UK aviation industry is F**ked at this level, of the remaining independent airlines you've only got Eastern, BMIR and a few odd's and sods like Titan left, BMIR is fresh into new owners, but judging by Flybe's figures I think they'll have their work cut out unless less they can find some thin profitable routes, Eastern have always played a clever game in keeping away from routes that generate to many passengers, Titan have done well out of the misfortune of other airlines in covering tech issue's but their customer is less and less each year, with the likes of Globespan & baby gone to name a few, the PAN contract must be up in either 13 or 14 and the Royal mail might be a proper private company by then, so they need to keep their QC's but they are too small to cover the 148-189 segment (Easyjet/Jet2/BA) market and the 752 are too big.
I think Flybe have little choice but to try and tough it out and can't expect any help from either BA or the Government over APD, the country is also skint!
Lets face it the UK aviation industry is F**ked at this level, of the remaining independent airlines you've only got Eastern, BMIR and a few odd's and sods like Titan left, BMIR is fresh into new owners, but judging by Flybe's figures I think they'll have their work cut out unless less they can find some thin profitable routes, Eastern have always played a clever game in keeping away from routes that generate to many passengers, Titan have done well out of the misfortune of other airlines in covering tech issue's but their customer is less and less each year, with the likes of Globespan & baby gone to name a few, the PAN contract must be up in either 13 or 14 and the Royal mail might be a proper private company by then, so they need to keep their QC's but they are too small to cover the 148-189 segment (Easyjet/Jet2/BA) market and the 752 are too big.
I think Flybe have little choice but to try and tough it out and can't expect any help from either BA or the Government over APD, the country is also skint!
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I must admit, I think its a bit strange that Flybe has abandoned its French routes from Manchester with the exception of Nantes, to concentrate on their UK domestic market. Especially when they say the UK domestic market is where they say they are being financially hit or making a loss. To me it has smacks of bmibaby's 'launching new niche flights from Manchester' - i.e. flying from Birmingham to Tenerrife(!). Very strange!
My view is that Flybe have a self declared hub at Manchester but need to launch direct routes to popular routes that MAN have recently they lost (e.g. Bordeaux, Lourdes, Montpellier). Ryanair seem to have done very well with this albiet to other airports. However knowing what company senior management teams are like I think that they would rather drive their company out of business than change strategy.
DomyDom
My view is that Flybe have a self declared hub at Manchester but need to launch direct routes to popular routes that MAN have recently they lost (e.g. Bordeaux, Lourdes, Montpellier). Ryanair seem to have done very well with this albiet to other airports. However knowing what company senior management teams are like I think that they would rather drive their company out of business than change strategy.
DomyDom
Bovvered - I think you're being slightly overly pessimistic. There is a gap between J41 and A319 on routes where flying less than daily just won't bring in the customers.
Flybe will forever remain a company driven by a need to look for new routes to develop, while its best performing routes are attacked by the larger players.
Yes, plenty of people do live in the UK's 8 or so largest urban centres, but people living in smaller cities like Exeter, Southampton, Norwich, Cardiff, Nottingham, etc... still need to get to other places while some of the larger cities need frequency on routes where a B737 would be overload.
I don't profess to know the ideal size or shape of Flybe for years to come, but unless Easyjet order a load of regional aircraft, the core business rationale is sound - there will always remain a need for an airline flying 50-100 seat aircraft around the UK regions.
Flybe will forever remain a company driven by a need to look for new routes to develop, while its best performing routes are attacked by the larger players.
Yes, plenty of people do live in the UK's 8 or so largest urban centres, but people living in smaller cities like Exeter, Southampton, Norwich, Cardiff, Nottingham, etc... still need to get to other places while some of the larger cities need frequency on routes where a B737 would be overload.
I don't profess to know the ideal size or shape of Flybe for years to come, but unless Easyjet order a load of regional aircraft, the core business rationale is sound - there will always remain a need for an airline flying 50-100 seat aircraft around the UK regions.
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Stepping into the realms of Europe? Here there be monsters with orange, blue and yellow markings who will stomp all over your head should you enter their lair, leaving behind a gutted carcass.*
Why would anyone want that job?
*That's a prediction and not a wish should you take it a bit too personally.
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DJ6
I think i'm just being realistic, i don't see a quick fix here, if they cut frequency to up load factors they make the product less attractive for the people who need/want a higher frequency.
I think airports have their part to play here to, for the short business trip the days of getting dropped at the airport door for a kiss & fly have largely gone from regional airports, yet you can still do it at LGW/LHR/MAN, but at LBA/EMA/BHX you'll need that elusive pound coin, no doubt done to cover the fact that their getting bugger all from the likes of FR in fee's but it just adds to the hassle and that's before you start the security side of things!
The train is so much easier for many these days, but we need the likes of Flybe in the UK market
I think airports have their part to play here to, for the short business trip the days of getting dropped at the airport door for a kiss & fly have largely gone from regional airports, yet you can still do it at LGW/LHR/MAN, but at LBA/EMA/BHX you'll need that elusive pound coin, no doubt done to cover the fact that their getting bugger all from the likes of FR in fee's but it just adds to the hassle and that's before you start the security side of things!
The train is so much easier for many these days, but we need the likes of Flybe in the UK market
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Winter 2012/3
Not surprising that the usual post Christmas/New Year cuts this winter look slightly deeper than the previous two years.
I have only checked the BHX services but some days DUS reduced by 50% (4-2), GLA five a day to seven on some days, Stuttgart just daily or less on four days of the week but the real surprise is what appears to be the suspension of Waterford between 6 January and 17 February.
With the EI Regional announcement this week I would have thought flybe would have added rather than reduce although I assume this decision was made before the EIR one.
It does not say suspension just full on the normal days of operation. Hopefully it is due to the booking engine being update in light of the EI Regional decision.
All in all the BHX January/February schedule looks realistic and not too bad unless there are further cuts to come!
Pete
I have only checked the BHX services but some days DUS reduced by 50% (4-2), GLA five a day to seven on some days, Stuttgart just daily or less on four days of the week but the real surprise is what appears to be the suspension of Waterford between 6 January and 17 February.
With the EI Regional announcement this week I would have thought flybe would have added rather than reduce although I assume this decision was made before the EIR one.
It does not say suspension just full on the normal days of operation. Hopefully it is due to the booking engine being update in light of the EI Regional decision.
All in all the BHX January/February schedule looks realistic and not too bad unless there are further cuts to come!
Pete
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DJ6 said
'I think i'm just being realistic, I don't see a quick fix here, if they cut frequency to up load factors they make the product less attractive for the people who need/want a higher frequency.'
I do agree with this statement. Sometimes as well you have to be bold and take a few risks to succeed.
Flybe's EMB Jets (195 and 175) are well received aircraft. Use them more on the key routes, especially as more 175s are delivered. Reliable frequent services with good cabin service and competitive pricing is the key.
I also wouldn't give up on Gatwick just concentrate on routes that support the jets and compete!! (Newcastle, Manchester, Inverness, Newquay, Belfast City, Isle of Man, Guernsey and Jersey plus some decent French tourist destinations in the summer months). Being at a London airport is important for national and international exposure.I know that Guernsey may need an upgrade before jets are possible. Is this true of the 175 too?
I am not at all anti the Dash 8 (it has allowed services to continue and happen where they wouldn't have done so) but to compete with Easyjet, Ryanair and others you need a comparable product or ideally a better one!!
Finally if the business model looks as though it might not be working to best advantage do not be stubborn about amending it.
It is frustrating to see Flybe develop routes and then abandon some of them too quickly if competition hots up. Work to get a loyal customer base and this should be less of an issue.For example Aberdeen. BA started from LCY BE stops Gatwick but Easyjet didn't! Easyjet puts A319 on Isle of Man so you should put EMB 175 on Isle of Man etc...)
Apologies if I come across as an armchair airline boss!! I enjoy travelling on Flybe and do not want to lose it.
V.
'I think i'm just being realistic, I don't see a quick fix here, if they cut frequency to up load factors they make the product less attractive for the people who need/want a higher frequency.'
I do agree with this statement. Sometimes as well you have to be bold and take a few risks to succeed.
Flybe's EMB Jets (195 and 175) are well received aircraft. Use them more on the key routes, especially as more 175s are delivered. Reliable frequent services with good cabin service and competitive pricing is the key.
I also wouldn't give up on Gatwick just concentrate on routes that support the jets and compete!! (Newcastle, Manchester, Inverness, Newquay, Belfast City, Isle of Man, Guernsey and Jersey plus some decent French tourist destinations in the summer months). Being at a London airport is important for national and international exposure.I know that Guernsey may need an upgrade before jets are possible. Is this true of the 175 too?
I am not at all anti the Dash 8 (it has allowed services to continue and happen where they wouldn't have done so) but to compete with Easyjet, Ryanair and others you need a comparable product or ideally a better one!!
Finally if the business model looks as though it might not be working to best advantage do not be stubborn about amending it.
It is frustrating to see Flybe develop routes and then abandon some of them too quickly if competition hots up. Work to get a loyal customer base and this should be less of an issue.For example Aberdeen. BA started from LCY BE stops Gatwick but Easyjet didn't! Easyjet puts A319 on Isle of Man so you should put EMB 175 on Isle of Man etc...)
Apologies if I come across as an armchair airline boss!! I enjoy travelling on Flybe and do not want to lose it.
V.
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Whoops sorry! Speed reading again!!
Facelookbovvered said
'I think i'm just being realistic, i don't see a quick fix here, if they cut frequency to up load factors they make the product less attractive for the people who need/want a higher frequency.'
Apologies again
V.
Facelookbovvered said
'I think i'm just being realistic, i don't see a quick fix here, if they cut frequency to up load factors they make the product less attractive for the people who need/want a higher frequency.'
Apologies again
V.
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I know that Guernsey may need an upgrade before jets are possible. Is this true of the 175 too?
100% Flybe spin I'm afraid. So when will GCI get its jets? We've been missing them since the last 146 departed.
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if they cut frequency to up load factors they make the product less attractive for the people who need/want a higher frequency.'
Just priced four of us going to a family funeral on Thursday(day return).
BFS-GLA-BFS with Easy...£320
BHD-GLA-BHD with FlyBe £910.
Guess who got the business?
Last edited by eastern wiseguy; 10th Nov 2012 at 12:07.
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Flybe must be loseing a lot of Business on the GCI - LGW through lack of Jet service. I flew mid week last week 7AM flight out and 19.50PM back (first and last one of the day) 78 seater Dash had 36 people on out bound and 33 on return. Dont get me wrong they offer a great service but for some reason people choose Aurigny being a local airline. I guess at least 50% of the people on board were travelling for business so wont want the free 20Kgs of luggage that Aurigny offer. The dash is quieter and quicker it can take off 15minutes behind the ATR and land just after or in some cases before it. I belive Flybe have a rough time with the states owned airline Aurigny continue to make a loss yet get bailed out time and time again by the Guernsey states. People need to wise up and realize it wont be too long before the Gatwick slots are so expensive Aurigny will either become too pricey or will leave Gatwick. Guernsey people need to start beliveing in Flybe a bit before they ditch the GCI - LGW route. From Flybe point get the E-175 on to this route ASAP and watch the numbers go up. People are all talk about i like to support the local Airline but as soon as they can say we travel by jet they will soon swap to Flybe!!
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Firstly just to say I'm not an Aurigny employee and am all for 175s on the GCI-LGW route but feel that a fair comparison is needed; perhaps we ought to set the record straight on a few matters?
Not true; both the ATR and the Q400 have an average cabin noise rating of 77-79dB. Some sources quote the latter as two decibels lower; this is not a perceivable difference to the human ear and you're splitting hairs here about an issue which even the most discriminating customer would not even notice.
The Q400's economical cruise speed is indeed higher in theory, but have a look at what actually happens: BE909 left LGW at 11:59 today and arrived GCI at 12:49 - a 50min flight. GR603 left LGW at 15:58 and arrived at 16:42 - a 44min flight. Obviously some Q400 flights are faster, but the splitting hairs factor applies as above.
Aurigny and Flybe use aircraft in the same category as dictated by LGW charges/fees (<150 seats). So fee rises will affect both carriers equally? Given that it serves a community and is owned by a government which purchased it to protect that very route, Aurigny is in fact less likely to drop it. Flybe has significantly reduced its presence at LGW recently with a number of routes disappearing. It cannot simply absorb fee rises at Gatwick just because its operation there is larger; fares would go up and the same would apply.
If you are wondering why, have a look at the GCI-MAN route. Aurigny has operated a twice daily year-round service for some years; Flybe then applied to compete. It was awarded a license to operate similar year-round services but dropped them in winter, operating the route seasonally and cancelling flights out of the blue between January and March 2008. Cherry-picking is not good for customers and it is not good for Aurigny - the former ended up using the latter because Flybe's service could not be relied upon. Yes, it isn't a charity but if it isn't dependable then don't expect islanders to use it.
Sorry for what is a lengthy post but while I do believe in competition and private enterprise and am not a supporter of the Aurignyflot concept, I don't like to see issues portrayed in an unfair and slanted fashion. If Flybe puts jets on GCI-LGW then it will do very well and it certainly deserves to.
The dash is quieter
and quicker
it wont be too long before the Gatwick slots are so expensive Aurigny will either become too pricey or will leave Gatwick
People are all talk about i like to support the local Airline
Sorry for what is a lengthy post but while I do believe in competition and private enterprise and am not a supporter of the Aurignyflot concept, I don't like to see issues portrayed in an unfair and slanted fashion. If Flybe puts jets on GCI-LGW then it will do very well and it certainly deserves to.
Last edited by Aero Mad; 10th Nov 2012 at 18:16.
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@Aero Mad
just a side note: I'm not a sound expert, but don't forget db are measured on a logaritmic scale, so a 77db to 79db difference should be easily audible, especially as the threshold to sth. being annoyingly loud for some people starts in the high 70ies.
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Aeromad - I dont wish to argue with you too much but i often travel on Flybe GCI to LGW and more often than not the Q-400 leaves after the ATR and get their 1st. Yes one flight today was quicker by ATR but that may be down to air congestion arriving into GCI at the time.
I do not have exact facts and figures on noise in the aircraft but one of my friends (best man at my wedding) works for Anglo Normany the Aurigny servicing arm and even he admits the ATR is louder espically the old AC.
As for the states buying the Airline to protect the LGW slots you obviously did not see Malcolm Harts comments in the Local press recently saying that rising Gatwick fees are the Airlines main threat. A threat is obvoiusly something that he feels can damage a Airline beyond repair. Yes the Q-400 is the same bracket as the ATR for fees at LGW but do Flybe not have more leverage on these fees being one of the main carriers at Gatwick.
On the Manchester front Flybe lower the amount of flights so as to run at a profit - as all companies should. A few weeks ago I being an Arsenal fan had tickets for Arsenal V Man Utd in Manchester on a Saturday lunch time. I looked 2 weeks before the match and all Friday night, Saturday morning outbound flights were full and with no return flights avaiable to the monday morning. With more and more flights operating from Manchester worldwide i belive there is enough capacity for 2 Airlines on GCI to MAN.
I have said before please look back through my previous posts competion is good for the public and keeps prices reasonable (I dont want to say low as if they go too low then airlines pull out of routes). I would much rather pay slightly more with Flybe to keep them on the route rather than my taxes paying for an airline that cant be run at a profit and keeps getting finacally proped up. I cant understand why if Aurigny lose money operating 5 flights a day GCI to LGW they decided that putting a 6th daily flight would make it more profitable. The 6th flight leaves 90min after the 1st and returns 90mins before the last.
Once again these are only my opinions and always try to see the other sides of an arguement
I do not have exact facts and figures on noise in the aircraft but one of my friends (best man at my wedding) works for Anglo Normany the Aurigny servicing arm and even he admits the ATR is louder espically the old AC.
As for the states buying the Airline to protect the LGW slots you obviously did not see Malcolm Harts comments in the Local press recently saying that rising Gatwick fees are the Airlines main threat. A threat is obvoiusly something that he feels can damage a Airline beyond repair. Yes the Q-400 is the same bracket as the ATR for fees at LGW but do Flybe not have more leverage on these fees being one of the main carriers at Gatwick.
On the Manchester front Flybe lower the amount of flights so as to run at a profit - as all companies should. A few weeks ago I being an Arsenal fan had tickets for Arsenal V Man Utd in Manchester on a Saturday lunch time. I looked 2 weeks before the match and all Friday night, Saturday morning outbound flights were full and with no return flights avaiable to the monday morning. With more and more flights operating from Manchester worldwide i belive there is enough capacity for 2 Airlines on GCI to MAN.
I have said before please look back through my previous posts competion is good for the public and keeps prices reasonable (I dont want to say low as if they go too low then airlines pull out of routes). I would much rather pay slightly more with Flybe to keep them on the route rather than my taxes paying for an airline that cant be run at a profit and keeps getting finacally proped up. I cant understand why if Aurigny lose money operating 5 flights a day GCI to LGW they decided that putting a 6th daily flight would make it more profitable. The 6th flight leaves 90min after the 1st and returns 90mins before the last.
Once again these are only my opinions and always try to see the other sides of an arguement
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Interesting reference to FlyBe reducing the number of flights to match demand. Yes, they need to do this, but there is a suspicion amongst regular pax that domestic flights leaving within two or three hours of each other are combined at very short notice. No airline can do this very often without alienating its most valuable customers, and leading them to conclude that rail/driving is a more reliable alternative. Whatever the reason, FlyMaybe has become a commonly used title.
As for Gatwick's landing fees it is easy to blame the airport's new owners, GIP. But the real blame needs to be put at the door of successive governments, who have failed to grasp the nettle of runway capacity at both Heathrow and Gatwick. With a single runway at their disposal, GIP are inevitably going to try to discourage the use of smaller aircraft, especially those with lower than average seat factors.
As for Gatwick's landing fees it is easy to blame the airport's new owners, GIP. But the real blame needs to be put at the door of successive governments, who have failed to grasp the nettle of runway capacity at both Heathrow and Gatwick. With a single runway at their disposal, GIP are inevitably going to try to discourage the use of smaller aircraft, especially those with lower than average seat factors.
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I enjoyed reading this thread, lots of good points!
I feel like this new environment is the norm, APD and fuel prices unlikely to change significantly. Flybe's model was good and I feel it will still be successful in future years providing it can get through the tough times. An airline like Flybe is needed in the UK but perhaps with extra consolidation and codeshares. Perhaps operating all the jets under Flybe Europe and rebranding the q400s under a separate name operating a low cost service (something I believe the q4 can achieve)
In any case if this is the new environment innovation is needed. I hope the new CEO will provide that and not just cut costs to make the shareholders happy and leave Flybe in a poor long term position.
I feel like this new environment is the norm, APD and fuel prices unlikely to change significantly. Flybe's model was good and I feel it will still be successful in future years providing it can get through the tough times. An airline like Flybe is needed in the UK but perhaps with extra consolidation and codeshares. Perhaps operating all the jets under Flybe Europe and rebranding the q400s under a separate name operating a low cost service (something I believe the q4 can achieve)
In any case if this is the new environment innovation is needed. I hope the new CEO will provide that and not just cut costs to make the shareholders happy and leave Flybe in a poor long term position.