Recession impact on UK airports
Thread Starter
Recession impact on UK airports
The UK is quickly entering a recession according to various analysts. So what will the impact be on the various airports - my starter for 10:
Heathrow - benefit from slot scarcity and transfers of routes from Gatwick
Gatwick - loss of routes to LHR, reductions in charter market, especially demise of XL
Stansted - loss of FR and EZY volumes, high fees will restrict new operators
City - impact of financial cutbacks v slot scarcity
Luton - benefit from Stansted high costs. Destination list still growing. Not much charter traffic left to lose
Bristol - loss of XL against the best EZY regional base
Bournemouth - could buck the trend due to affluence of catchment area and interest from FR/EZY
Cardiff - loss of charter traffic and marginal chance of new loco operations
Birmingham - loss of charter traffic and full service cutbacks v Ryanair base building
Coventry - in severe danger of losing all traffic
EMA - loss of charter traffic, EZY base weak, FR base stronger, no growth from BMI. On balance
Doncaster - charter traffic down, not much else to rely on.
Leeds - Jet2 diversifying. Possible alternative destination in north to Manchester, eg PIA. Full service cutbacks
Manchester - very diversified but prone to charter decline. Possible increases from EZY and FR.
Liverpool - exposed to growth of FR and EZY at MAN. No new operators likely.
Blackpool - marginal even in the good times.
Teesside - nothing new, so gentle decline likely
Newcastle - charter traffic will reduce. Loco fairly bouyant.
I don't know enough about Scotland & N Ireland to comment.
I'd be interested to hear other people's perspectives. The views above are purely personal.
Heathrow - benefit from slot scarcity and transfers of routes from Gatwick
Gatwick - loss of routes to LHR, reductions in charter market, especially demise of XL
Stansted - loss of FR and EZY volumes, high fees will restrict new operators
City - impact of financial cutbacks v slot scarcity
Luton - benefit from Stansted high costs. Destination list still growing. Not much charter traffic left to lose
Bristol - loss of XL against the best EZY regional base
Bournemouth - could buck the trend due to affluence of catchment area and interest from FR/EZY
Cardiff - loss of charter traffic and marginal chance of new loco operations
Birmingham - loss of charter traffic and full service cutbacks v Ryanair base building
Coventry - in severe danger of losing all traffic
EMA - loss of charter traffic, EZY base weak, FR base stronger, no growth from BMI. On balance
Doncaster - charter traffic down, not much else to rely on.
Leeds - Jet2 diversifying. Possible alternative destination in north to Manchester, eg PIA. Full service cutbacks
Manchester - very diversified but prone to charter decline. Possible increases from EZY and FR.
Liverpool - exposed to growth of FR and EZY at MAN. No new operators likely.
Blackpool - marginal even in the good times.
Teesside - nothing new, so gentle decline likely
Newcastle - charter traffic will reduce. Loco fairly bouyant.
I don't know enough about Scotland & N Ireland to comment.
I'd be interested to hear other people's perspectives. The views above are purely personal.
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UK Airports - Performance
I would agree with your comments for each airport, looking at things from a statistics point of view, pax total for 12m ending 31.07.08:-
Heathrow - 67,879,939 up 1.24% (record was 68,180,945 - 12m end Feb 2008)
Gatwick - 35,458,009 up 2.49% (record was 35,601,289 - 12m end Mar 2008)
Stansted - 23,122,529 down 2.77% (record was 24,037,747 - 12m end October 2007)
Manchester - 21,952,703 down 1.01% (record was 22,578,836 - 12m end July 2006)
Luton - 10,237,686 up 6.19% (record now)
Birmingham - 9,533,145 up 4.35% (record now)
Edinburgh - 9,140,468 up 3.66% (record was 9,152,395 - 12m end June 2008)
Glasgow - 8,645,579 down 2.30% (record was 8,924,427- 12m end May 2007)
Bristol - 6,281,780 up 8.09% (record now)
East Midlands - 5,688,638 up 9.93% (record now)
These figures bear out that East Mids, Bristol, Luton, Birmingham are still growing.
Manchester peaked over 2 years ago.
Lets see what happens over the Winter
BHX5DME
Heathrow - 67,879,939 up 1.24% (record was 68,180,945 - 12m end Feb 2008)
Gatwick - 35,458,009 up 2.49% (record was 35,601,289 - 12m end Mar 2008)
Stansted - 23,122,529 down 2.77% (record was 24,037,747 - 12m end October 2007)
Manchester - 21,952,703 down 1.01% (record was 22,578,836 - 12m end July 2006)
Luton - 10,237,686 up 6.19% (record now)
Birmingham - 9,533,145 up 4.35% (record now)
Edinburgh - 9,140,468 up 3.66% (record was 9,152,395 - 12m end June 2008)
Glasgow - 8,645,579 down 2.30% (record was 8,924,427- 12m end May 2007)
Bristol - 6,281,780 up 8.09% (record now)
East Midlands - 5,688,638 up 9.93% (record now)
These figures bear out that East Mids, Bristol, Luton, Birmingham are still growing.
Manchester peaked over 2 years ago.
Lets see what happens over the Winter
BHX5DME
Thread Starter
Exeter and Southampton are so closely linked to the strategy and fortunes of one airline (flybe) that makes them difficult to read. Both benefit from relatively affluent catchment areas, so any decline will probably be modest, unless something happens to FlyBe (which does appear fairly robust at present).
Plymouth has already lost the Air Wales routes, and is intricately involved with Air Southwest - including common ownership. If ASW prosper, so will PLH, but the opposite applies too.
As for NQY, I think some recent successes have been symptomatic of the froth at the top of the boom, and will reverse. BA have already pulled out, but I see Jet2 are planning flights. Not sure whether these will work.
Plymouth has already lost the Air Wales routes, and is intricately involved with Air Southwest - including common ownership. If ASW prosper, so will PLH, but the opposite applies too.
As for NQY, I think some recent successes have been symptomatic of the froth at the top of the boom, and will reverse. BA have already pulled out, but I see Jet2 are planning flights. Not sure whether these will work.
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I would add to this thread that those airports that are paying their incumbent airlines to fly from them with 'rich' incentives are going to be massacred if those airline fail or leave. Eu Jet, remember them? Plane Station, remember them?
Nice to see Luton at Number 5. Should have been there years ago, but the BAA was allowed to use profits from Heathrow to expand an Essex airport then offer ridiculous subsidies to airlines. Now the incentives are over, Luton wins and Stansted loses.
Over the next 5-10 years, Stansted will win back operators if it is sold off and more incentives are then on the table to justify runway 2.
Sadly with a local council running Luton indirectly, future growth should there be a sell off at Stansted, will remain in Essex.
Regional airports will survive if the need to trade and relax continues.
As I have said many a time, credit card balances and the buy now - pay on the 'never never' threaten the most robust airport and airline.
The ' sling it on the mortgage culture ' is now over, folk have to pay off their debts in an economy of financial uncertainly and heavily rising basics like food and fuel.
Customer service will have to return to our industry once more to entice travellers.
I was told today that a large percentage of adults, for whatever reason, owe more than a years wages in unsecured debt. How the heck are they ever going to pay it off? These are the folk that fly regularly!
Next year will be nasty, I predict a third quarter from hell. hopefully Buster is proved incorrect, but..........?
Nice to see Luton at Number 5. Should have been there years ago, but the BAA was allowed to use profits from Heathrow to expand an Essex airport then offer ridiculous subsidies to airlines. Now the incentives are over, Luton wins and Stansted loses.
Over the next 5-10 years, Stansted will win back operators if it is sold off and more incentives are then on the table to justify runway 2.
Sadly with a local council running Luton indirectly, future growth should there be a sell off at Stansted, will remain in Essex.
Regional airports will survive if the need to trade and relax continues.
As I have said many a time, credit card balances and the buy now - pay on the 'never never' threaten the most robust airport and airline.
The ' sling it on the mortgage culture ' is now over, folk have to pay off their debts in an economy of financial uncertainly and heavily rising basics like food and fuel.
Customer service will have to return to our industry once more to entice travellers.
I was told today that a large percentage of adults, for whatever reason, owe more than a years wages in unsecured debt. How the heck are they ever going to pay it off? These are the folk that fly regularly!
Next year will be nasty, I predict a third quarter from hell. hopefully Buster is proved incorrect, but..........?
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LGS6753: To be fair, Air Wales stopped flying from Plymouth a few years back when they ceased to exist, and nothing to do with current economic conditions. PLH actually isn't doing bad for a small airport - pax numbers up by 31% in June as a result of new ASW services. So the regional picture isn't all bad!
Please don;t forget Humberside,soon to have a new owner.
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I think the biggest winner will be Luton. BHX will look good in short term but ryanair will in effect replace other carriers in the longer term so that they are worst off. Small airports are going to go under.
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Has any airport actually 'gone under'? They are key economic locations of strategic importance. In the current climate some might be sold to other management companies or even nationalised but I can't see padlocks going on any gates
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Has any airport actually 'gone under'? Sheffield City, but maybe that was always something of a wheeze, to lead to non-Aero use. Many closures for a nearby better - Blackbushe/Bovingdon/Dunsfold/Langley/civil-Northolt (for LHR), Croydon (LGW), Burnaston (EMA), East Fortune (Turnhouse), Nutts Corner (Aldergrove), Renfrew (Abbotsinch), Whitchurch (Lulsgate). r283 is right, in that if commercial investors pull out of LPL, SEN...the Local Authority will be obliged to takeover and then embark on the glacial Planning process to find revenue-positive useage. That might be to build all over it - Baginton, Finningley, Middleton-St.George, Rochford (oldie!) most vulnerable, due in part to accessible alternatives.
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nationalised big airports would happen as they are worth something. The problem ones are the likes of Coventry that are not far from profitable and well connected airports like BHX. As we get less airlines we may lose 2-3 of the small airports as passenger airports.
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Recession impact on UK airports
Airports which rely upon one or two carriers could be at risk. Airports with a wide variety of carriers legacy,charter and low fares will be the winners in the long term.
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Think you will find they are doing ok at the moment. BHX ,LTN ,BRS ,EMA are holding up well. but doubt it will last through the winter.I know they were probably just trying to show a " Trend" forming, but you do get the "Whole world rotates around BAA" feeling
But not for long !!!
