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What will happen in 2008?

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What will happen in 2008?

Old 28th Nov 2007, 20:12
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Here's one. FlyBE will take over Loganair and run it as FlyBE Scotland, plus BE will take over BA's Cityflyer operation as they already own some of the aircraft.

Biggest question is what will happen with the SQ holding in Virgin, and will teh Bearded One manage to buy it back? Can he afford it with his other shenanigans?
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Old 28th Nov 2007, 20:40
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Key Pilot

Thanks for the compliment, I thought yesterday That i would get a lot of responses saying it was negative and no substance!! He he .

So much interesting info coming back. What do you all say to the following statements?

1. Flybe-if they have IPO will MOL buy stock? to make life hard?
2. Aer Arann- Will Flybe take over, 195s not a good idea-Padraid stick to Props and niche market stay out of Ryanairs way?
3. BMI Baby-too much competition, no fleet strategy. Bmibaby and Jet 2 will be snapped up by EZY/FR.
4.FLyglobespan- they will fold, did anyone see the bit on WHistleblowers on TV tonight?
5.Euromanx -Will disappear.
6.Aer Lingus will continue in existing ownership, will struggle to show good reasonable profits. will launch extra new base next year in BHX?

One common theme seems to be Flybe will BA back BE to buy up all the regional airlines around the place? Bmi Regional, Eastern, Aer Arann.

ALot of people would suggest that BE is the obviuos buyer for Aer Arann. What do you all think?
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Old 28th Nov 2007, 20:48
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What chance Jet2 and BMI Baby getting together to form a sizeable third LoCo?
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Old 28th Nov 2007, 21:04
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2008

house prices tumble in uk and credit crunch means less trips to the sun

Jet 2 get bought by EZY after profits collapse.

Eastern retrench early and stick with there model

Loganair looks for buyer without success - MBO struggles

BE doesnt buy Eastern or Loganair

WOW sells out to BE

BACF grows at LCY

VLM gets bought by European carrier

Euromanx aren't around BE takes their routes

VLM fills Euromanx gap LCY IOM

BE closes lots of French routes next summer and consolidates in UK insted

FR have big fall out with BHD

Aer Lingus do well out of BFS

BMI & Baby are reorganised

Oil breaks $100bbl then collapses to $70 by autumn

Gordon Brown is no longer PM>

Heathrow is still the worst airport in the world for pax.
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Old 28th Nov 2007, 21:32
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EI-BUD - you're welcome!

To answer your predictions:

1. Don't know, is this a big issue?
2. Aer Arann have been living on borrowed time for years - I remember sitting in Thornton's in 2002 as some well-known figures in Irish aviation plotted their respose to its imminent demise - I was on the next table, they couldn't have known I was in the industry but just goes to show about loose lips and all that. Will they get wiped out in 2008 - dunno - but I would probably bet not
3. I predict 1 out of these 2 things will jhappen in 2008, the other in 2009 - I bet Jet2 to go first!
4. Fully agreed!
5. Again, this will happen - but in 2008? I'd say 50/50
6. Agreed, except bit about new base. I think BFS will be a bit of a headache, which may limit their expansionist ambitions

Overall an intereting and sensible set of predictions! Now if you could get a 6-horse accumulator, what odds would you get and how much would you put on?
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Old 30th Nov 2007, 11:06
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Good first post, bmibabyCSA and welcome on board!

Are you hearing rumours about this? I certainly think that a move to A319s should be considered (I thought WW was actively considering this), but it's a decent low cost brand as it is; moving to 319s would certainly improve punctuality and reliability, but (in my experience) that's about all they need to change.
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Old 30th Nov 2007, 11:38
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Akeroskid

Whilst I agree a fleet replacement is needed, Baby is still no 2 in the lo-co airline punctuality tables http://www.flightontime.info/loco/loco.html
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Old 30th Nov 2007, 15:08
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By the way; SkyEurope has improved its results! The carrier just announced the preliminary results for Q4 of the 2007 fiscal year, showing the fourth quarter operating profit of EUR 14.325 mln, from a loss of EUR 6.580 mln in Q4 2006.
"Full-year financial target guidancewill be achieved with a record Q4 EBIT profit of more than EUR 14.3 mln." - CEO Christian Mandl told a conference for investors today.
• Revenue increasing by 22.1% during Q4, passengers flown reaching 1.1 million up from 991,000 despite less average aircraft in the quarter, the revenue per available seat kilometre improves 15.7% in Q4 2007 and 11.5% on a YTD basis.
• Aircraft utilisation increases by 9.1% during the quarter to 12:25 hours (up from 11:23 hours in Q4 2006) with continued focus put on high asset utilisation.
• Steven Greenway (ex Virgin Blue) will be appointed as SkyEurope’s Chief Commercial Officer effective 1 December 2007.

New strategy pays off?
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Old 30th Nov 2007, 19:46
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UK airline goes bust. Public reaction to their loss of cash for flights not flown (it's our money, not theirs) forces government review of monies paid in advance for services yet to be delivered. Legislation brought forward requiring such cash to be segregated from business cash until service (= flight) actually delivered. BA and other airlines huge cash balances disappear from their balance sheets. Financial mayhem! Serve the b*gg*rs right!
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Old 30th Nov 2007, 21:16
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Jet2 is owned by the Dart Group and about half the business is held privately by PM. Same business also runs a haulage company. Getting hold of Jet2 not going to be straight forward. bmi baby too has all the SMB issues.
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Old 1st Dec 2007, 11:17
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bmibaby is not going to be rolled into bmi. The management team have not spent the last five years establishing the brand, getting our own AOC and slowly bringing more operations in house at Tiny Town - only for it all to be dissolved. Also, you have the issue of all baby crews being checked out on the 737, it would bring massive conversion costs to change this. Finally, is the bmi product really what EMA and BHX needs today?
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Old 1st Dec 2007, 11:48
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2008 Major Event

For those unaware, in the UK on 16 July 2008 EU OPS becomes effective. Anyone with any doubt about what this means should read CAA FODCOM 3/2007. There are serious implications for airlines who are not prepared, so this is just a gentle reminder.
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Old 1st Dec 2007, 16:31
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LBA is the second largest conurbation in Britain.
It's the fourth, after London, Birmingham and Manchester.
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Old 1st Dec 2007, 17:13
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I too can't see bmi wanting to re-integrate bmibaby into the mainline or regional operations. The airline has spent years and a small fortune on entering the low-cost market, and considering that bmi is soon up for sale, the purchaser (most likely LH) is only going to be interested in LHR and the high-yielding regional business, not an airline who will shortly need an expensive fleet renewal and who operates predominantly low yielding routes from airports with big LCC competition. Also, bmibaby don't have a base at BFS, it's more of a focus city with flights from all bases. WW will probably be around for a while yet as a middle of the ground LCC, or will be sold off to fund longhaul and the new BMEDistan routes.
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Old 1st Dec 2007, 20:00
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Can't really see any sense in easyjet buying Jet2, a B737/B757 operator! easyJet can hold there own in the competition stake, and the aircraft and crews wouldn't make sense, unlike buying GB!

A B737 operator such as FR on the other hand....
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Old 1st Dec 2007, 20:45
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Ryanair and Jet2, not going to happen. Might be a 737 but the Ryanair crew are only trained for the 800, also the age of the a/c does not help. Also Jet2 does cargo, and Ryanair will not carry cargo, only its own from base to base, either company mail or a/c parts for its own needs.

Now someone like Skyeurope might be a better choice.

Lee
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Old 1st Dec 2007, 21:46
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Grrr

Whilst oil is $2 a barrel and the £1 buys $2, airlines might survive? Should any of the previous change for the worse, then consolidation will occur, or rather airlines will go bust as folk in the UK are strapped for cash whilst interest rates bite deep. Those that hedged early and deep will suffer least.

Both easyJet and Ryanair are spreading their exposure to this right across Europe with continental bases.
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Old 2nd Dec 2007, 15:42
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don't forget Alitalia!

We all keep talking about some budget airlines that could go bust next year. However, we should mention also at least one "high-cost" airline that can spark some turbulence in Europe in some months or so. Namely, Alitalia. It still has some chances to be sold. But if it does not succeed, will the Italian government have a power needed to prop the carrier up once again? And the possible bankruptcy would have vast effects on the entire mrket, don't you think?
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Old 2nd Dec 2007, 18:31
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Alitalia was sort of who I was thinking of in my third point. Although, Olympic would be another candidate and you have a few more like SN Brussels or TAP that would make you wonder.

Agreed that Alitalia would have the biggest impact. I don't even know what would happen with SN Brussels. With Ryanair in Charleroi, Eurostar competing to London and Schiphol and CDG soon to be little over an hour away on high speed rail lines, I'm not sure how much take up there would be for flights out of Brussels if anything happened to them.
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Old 3rd Dec 2007, 12:13
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Most posts are too LCC/UK/EI-centric. If EU stops Italy giving AZ another "last" subsidy (and AZ's lucky suitor is about to be announced - where LH seems to be competing with its (Air One) self), so that Europe's residual parastatals face up to the end of Protection: then we are ready for the marketing alliances to move towards operations integration. From just painting up (?10%) of the joint fleet as Star Alliance, we will move towards the 1989 notion of Royal Ameripore Airlines (L.Gialloreto, Strategic Airline Management). It is plain daft for purchasing to continue to be fragmented: $100 fuel is still just, what, 25% of all procurement? Daft for long haul capacity to sit idle at, say LHR all day. If it takes a strike to change crew scope, then one patsy will take it for the team, so that, say BA can take a 5hr. LHR rotation on a lull OneWorld 747, for QF then to take it home. "Intelligent Misuse" of all ware, hard and warm, to improve utilisation.
.
If the incumbent BA and AA seniors, LH and UA, AF and DL, can stay in post after Open Skies and Chapter 11 emergences settle down - say, this time next year, then...they now know, and presumably may soon love, each other. I am stunned that (for example) KL and AF have not yet publicly got into a hissy fit - arrogance, leadership issues (imagine adding AZ!). The moment one of the Alliances decides to become one airline, then that gorilla will change the entire air transport game.
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