MD80 plane crash in Phuket, Sep. 07
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DCA says cause is pilot error
The DCA has now publicly stated that the cause of OG269 is pilot error.
I wonder if the DCA will:
I wonder if the DCA will:
- Make clear that Montri was the flying pilot?
- Note that both Montri and Arief were exhausted (having flown beyond the legal limits and expected to fly more the same day)?
- Mention Arief had fasted all that day?
- Point out that Arief spoke not at all, and Montri panicked and stopped flying the plane as the G/A went bad?
- Observe that the flight was most likely recoverable until about 8 seconds before impact, even though Montri had stopped flying the aircraft 19 seconds before impact?
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Latest information I have received today is that OG/OX failed the review of the processes and quality control again and DCA does not allow them to restart service on Sept 15. Instead they give them another 30 days and if they fail again, then AOC will be revoked.
This is an unconfirmed news so do not take it for granted. Keep the champagne in the fridge for the time being ...
This is an unconfirmed news so do not take it for granted. Keep the champagne in the fridge for the time being ...
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Thai Culture: NCF
I won't be happy until US FAA recognizes that Thailand has little regard for safety in ALL aspects. ( Just look at the electrical wiring hanging all over the place)and downgrades the rating accordingly.
It's not that TLand's poor, how many temples were erected this past year to commemorate HRH anniversary , they just don't care....
NCF : No Concept of the Future..
'cause, if Thai DCA is so lax , then how can we reasonably expect that ANY Thai airline is safe by US standards ?
It's not that TLand's poor, how many temples were erected this past year to commemorate HRH anniversary , they just don't care....
NCF : No Concept of the Future..
'cause, if Thai DCA is so lax , then how can we reasonably expect that ANY Thai airline is safe by US standards ?
N4790P
So the FAA is now the world's regulatory authority on health & safety? ( I don't disagree with your comments on general H & S, but welcome to a 3rd world environment. No different to any other 'developing' nation).
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Not Possible
Here's the applicable policy standard that guides Category 2 certification. Editorial comments follow.
1. We'll show you any law (well, it's alleged English translation) or (given the inability of the last 3 governments to actually establish any laws) draft legislation that rectifies any deficiencies in area 1.
2 & 3. Plenty of qualified personnel. How do we know they're trained and qualified? Thai DCA has certified them as such. See some of the language discussions on Thai controllers' English abilities.
4. Plenty of guidance for inspectors on enforcement and compliance. What they actually do with that guidance is another matter. Of course you are free to infer that "no enforcement actions" means that all operators are in compliance.
5. Documentations and records missing? Evidently misplaced; here they are now.
FAA reports all discrepancies noted have been cleared, and recertification goes through.
Thai DCA, a government regulatory and oversight bureau, is controlled by TG, AoT, and AeroThai. These are "state enterprises." Government entities, semi-privatized, with majority ownership by the Thai government and the significant minority interests by a short list of Wall St. investment bankers. It certainly wouldn't do for a regulatory arm of the government to be restrictive or castigating of a revenue arm of the same government, upsetting foreign investors, and casting a pall over the Stock Exchange of Thailand.
Rest assured, the only thing keeping OT from having their AOC restored right now is the pressure on DCA from TG to secure recertification of Cat 1. There are a lot of vested interests, inside and outside of Thailand, that are standing for huge losses if Thailand gets the same treatment as Indonesia or the Phillipines. And given the political tentacles stretched through the government agencies and state enterprises, reclassifying to Cat 2 would have a de-stabilizing on Thailand's fragile political and feudal economic structure as well.
You also may want to question ICAO on a contracting state's ability to "revise and extend their remarks" in reference to state letters of compliance. And see if the DCA's new MPL rules (faster, cheaper pilots for TG) even come close to the standards used in Europe for granting these controversial licenses.
(1) The country lacks laws or regulations necessary to support the
certification and oversight of air carriers in accordance with minimum
international standards; (2) the CAA lacks the technical expertise,
resources, and organization to license or oversee air carrier
operations; (3) the CAA does not have adequately trained and qualified
technical personnel; (4) the CAA does not provide adequate inspector
guidance to ensure enforcement of, and compliance with, minimum
international standards, and (5) the CAA has insufficient documentation
and records of certification and inadequate continuing oversight and
surveillance of air carrier operations.
certification and oversight of air carriers in accordance with minimum
international standards; (2) the CAA lacks the technical expertise,
resources, and organization to license or oversee air carrier
operations; (3) the CAA does not have adequately trained and qualified
technical personnel; (4) the CAA does not provide adequate inspector
guidance to ensure enforcement of, and compliance with, minimum
international standards, and (5) the CAA has insufficient documentation
and records of certification and inadequate continuing oversight and
surveillance of air carrier operations.
2 & 3. Plenty of qualified personnel. How do we know they're trained and qualified? Thai DCA has certified them as such. See some of the language discussions on Thai controllers' English abilities.
4. Plenty of guidance for inspectors on enforcement and compliance. What they actually do with that guidance is another matter. Of course you are free to infer that "no enforcement actions" means that all operators are in compliance.
5. Documentations and records missing? Evidently misplaced; here they are now.
FAA reports all discrepancies noted have been cleared, and recertification goes through.
Thai DCA, a government regulatory and oversight bureau, is controlled by TG, AoT, and AeroThai. These are "state enterprises." Government entities, semi-privatized, with majority ownership by the Thai government and the significant minority interests by a short list of Wall St. investment bankers. It certainly wouldn't do for a regulatory arm of the government to be restrictive or castigating of a revenue arm of the same government, upsetting foreign investors, and casting a pall over the Stock Exchange of Thailand.
Rest assured, the only thing keeping OT from having their AOC restored right now is the pressure on DCA from TG to secure recertification of Cat 1. There are a lot of vested interests, inside and outside of Thailand, that are standing for huge losses if Thailand gets the same treatment as Indonesia or the Phillipines. And given the political tentacles stretched through the government agencies and state enterprises, reclassifying to Cat 2 would have a de-stabilizing on Thailand's fragile political and feudal economic structure as well.
You also may want to question ICAO on a contracting state's ability to "revise and extend their remarks" in reference to state letters of compliance. And see if the DCA's new MPL rules (faster, cheaper pilots for TG) even come close to the standards used in Europe for granting these controversial licenses.
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3rd World They're Not
At least as far as infrastructure and capital go. Look at the ex-PM, even after half his assets were seized, he still manage to slip out of the country and pay cash for Man City.
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3rd world country, why 1st class rating ?
ZFT
I live in Thailand, I know it's 3rd world, so my point is why does it have a first class rating from US FAA?
I"m not suggesting FAA has any jurisdiction over any other safety issue. I"m just saying look at the whole picture of the Thai culture of fatalism .
Then downgrade the F'n rating NOW !!!
I live in Thailand, I know it's 3rd world, so my point is why does it have a first class rating from US FAA?
I"m not suggesting FAA has any jurisdiction over any other safety issue. I"m just saying look at the whole picture of the Thai culture of fatalism .
Then downgrade the F'n rating NOW !!!
N4790P
CristySweet,
Are you stating that only First World countries should get a First Class rating?
(And as stated previously, there is no place in aviation for the likes of 1 To Go, Orient Thai, Phuket Air etc)
Are you stating that only First World countries should get a First Class rating?
(And as stated previously, there is no place in aviation for the likes of 1 To Go, Orient Thai, Phuket Air etc)
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First World, First Class
ZFT, I don't agree that it's 3rd world, except in mentality.
And conformance is conformance, so any country that complies with their obligations (1st, 2nd or 3rd world) deserves the top rating.
On the recertification there are two options: refuse to recertify or demote to category 2. And the criteria revolves around making substantial progress on deficiencies or actual correction of deficiencies.
Lots of LDC's (lesser-developed countries) make serious efforts to improve and upgrade their safety standards. That's a first world attitude operating under 3rd-world budgetary and expertise constraints.
Thai DCA/TG/AoT/AeroThai don't operate under 3rd-world budgetary constraints. There's plenty of cash to feed their bloated bureaucracies. Hard to pin them on the expertise side since they're self-certifying.
But they have a 3rd-world mentality of covering up their deficiencies with paper rather than actually doing anything about them. The new papers will be ignored just like the last batch. Rule number one, in a world where "saving face" is the priority: never admit you're wrong, and never point out that anyone else is either.
Leaving them in re-cert limbo is probably the only way to exert any pressure that can force changes. Decertifying only means that TG's slots into the US are frozen at current levels, and their monopoly of Thai carriers is extended. Everyone else goes on their merry way, the same same as Indonesia and the Phillipines, pumping effectively-unregulated, unsupervised tin into the skies over Asia. And of course, picking up all those freight and charter jobs at discount rates for the rest of the world.
And conformance is conformance, so any country that complies with their obligations (1st, 2nd or 3rd world) deserves the top rating.
On the recertification there are two options: refuse to recertify or demote to category 2. And the criteria revolves around making substantial progress on deficiencies or actual correction of deficiencies.
Lots of LDC's (lesser-developed countries) make serious efforts to improve and upgrade their safety standards. That's a first world attitude operating under 3rd-world budgetary and expertise constraints.
Thai DCA/TG/AoT/AeroThai don't operate under 3rd-world budgetary constraints. There's plenty of cash to feed their bloated bureaucracies. Hard to pin them on the expertise side since they're self-certifying.
But they have a 3rd-world mentality of covering up their deficiencies with paper rather than actually doing anything about them. The new papers will be ignored just like the last batch. Rule number one, in a world where "saving face" is the priority: never admit you're wrong, and never point out that anyone else is either.
Leaving them in re-cert limbo is probably the only way to exert any pressure that can force changes. Decertifying only means that TG's slots into the US are frozen at current levels, and their monopoly of Thai carriers is extended. Everyone else goes on their merry way, the same same as Indonesia and the Phillipines, pumping effectively-unregulated, unsupervised tin into the skies over Asia. And of course, picking up all those freight and charter jobs at discount rates for the rest of the world.
N4790P
tbavprof,
Assuming you are in Hua Hin you will know just how this country works. If you force TG, BKP or any of the other DCA approved operations that do comply with the rules; they will react to their ‘loss of face’ by retaliation to and self-imposed isolation from the FAA and USA.
Replacement aircraft, fleet additions or aviation equipment from USA – forget it.
I’m all for going after the rubbish like 1 To Go, but a targeted approach and maintaining pressure on their regulatory authorities will be far more productive.
Across the board sanctions will IMHO create more problems than it solves.
Assuming you are in Hua Hin you will know just how this country works. If you force TG, BKP or any of the other DCA approved operations that do comply with the rules; they will react to their ‘loss of face’ by retaliation to and self-imposed isolation from the FAA and USA.
Replacement aircraft, fleet additions or aviation equipment from USA – forget it.
I’m all for going after the rubbish like 1 To Go, but a targeted approach and maintaining pressure on their regulatory authorities will be far more productive.
Across the board sanctions will IMHO create more problems than it solves.
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Targeted Pressure
Yep, I know how this place works. And Z is right, only the targeted pressure on DCA will have any effect. That's why I say that withholding re-cert, rather than decertifying right now is the only way to keep a sustained pressure on them.
TG has already slashed their US routes in the last month (though they still have rights). And they've received their IATA IOSA sign-off, so their code-shares now have an FAA seal of approval, even if they never operate in US airspace again.
DCA, with ICAO's blessing, has pretty much blown off the FAA already as far as technical assistance. But they'll be more than happy to consider it if someone other nation provides the funding so they can line their pockets, especially if it involves free travel abroad.
To investigateudom, the international safety program may have been set up with an intent to provide information to US passengers, but its implementation is less than robust. Like Z says, things like Boeing sales, and the ability to charter military/UN logistics flights outside of the US at discount rates all play into the decisions of what is publicly available. The best you can say is, if it's certified cat 2, watch out. If it's certified cat 1, do your homework. In this case, an FOI request for the audit working papers is probably the only way to get the truth and hold the FAA accountable for its decision.
As far as the memorial, if the airport is cleared of protesters and police by then, I'd be happy to participate in something there.
TG has already slashed their US routes in the last month (though they still have rights). And they've received their IATA IOSA sign-off, so their code-shares now have an FAA seal of approval, even if they never operate in US airspace again.
DCA, with ICAO's blessing, has pretty much blown off the FAA already as far as technical assistance. But they'll be more than happy to consider it if someone other nation provides the funding so they can line their pockets, especially if it involves free travel abroad.
To investigateudom, the international safety program may have been set up with an intent to provide information to US passengers, but its implementation is less than robust. Like Z says, things like Boeing sales, and the ability to charter military/UN logistics flights outside of the US at discount rates all play into the decisions of what is publicly available. The best you can say is, if it's certified cat 2, watch out. If it's certified cat 1, do your homework. In this case, an FOI request for the audit working papers is probably the only way to get the truth and hold the FAA accountable for its decision.
As far as the memorial, if the airport is cleared of protesters and police by then, I'd be happy to participate in something there.
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My feeling right now is that we can take enough information public to let the public decide on the dangers of travel in Thailand under this DCA.
FWIW, if Thailand remains at Cat 1, I will strongly suggest Congress stop funding the IASA program as it is a waste of taxpayer dollars and misinforms the traveling public.
Very much appreciate any and all offers to participate in a memorial in Phuket. (As you say, assuming the crowds have left.)
FWIW, if Thailand remains at Cat 1, I will strongly suggest Congress stop funding the IASA program as it is a waste of taxpayer dollars and misinforms the traveling public.
Very much appreciate any and all offers to participate in a memorial in Phuket. (As you say, assuming the crowds have left.)
Last edited by InvestigateUdom; 31st Aug 2008 at 02:15.
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More Fuel
The airport closures at Phuket and Krabi also are prima facie evidence that Thailand is not in compliance with their aviation security obligations under Annex 17. That protesters were able to overpower security forces and take to the runways at Phuket shows that neither the DCA nor the Thai security forces are able or willing to live up to their obligations.
This is reason enough for suspending international air service to and from Thailand immediately.
Who's to say that the same can't or won't happen at BKK, CNX, or UTP? Given that TG, AoT, and AeroThai are releasing their staff to join forces with those that smashed up the terminals in the south, it would be irresponsible to allow air service to continue.
This is reason enough for suspending international air service to and from Thailand immediately.
Who's to say that the same can't or won't happen at BKK, CNX, or UTP? Given that TG, AoT, and AeroThai are releasing their staff to join forces with those that smashed up the terminals in the south, it would be irresponsible to allow air service to continue.
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TIP = This Is Thailand
Thailand is a toypet of the US and the US will not downgrade Thailand into Cat. 2 and will not allow any downgrading.
When I fly into Thailand I can see so many security and safety gaps that any other country would have been downgraded years ago (see IND and PHI). But the US needs Thailand against their percieved war against Myanmar, China, Laos and even Cambodia (to a certain extend).
So don't expect any major changes to happen not until the government of Thailand is not anymore US friendly and only than Thailand will be downgraded.
When I fly into Thailand I can see so many security and safety gaps that any other country would have been downgraded years ago (see IND and PHI). But the US needs Thailand against their percieved war against Myanmar, China, Laos and even Cambodia (to a certain extend).
So don't expect any major changes to happen not until the government of Thailand is not anymore US friendly and only than Thailand will be downgraded.
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Memorial
To remember those who lost their lives in the Thai Orient/1-2 Go crash that was wholly preventable.
At Phuket Airport, September 16, 2008 as near as possible to the site of the crash and at the same time
of day 3:30 PM ( Afternoon)
Also, there will be demonstrations in front of Thai Embassy in France and perhaps
Washington, DC to protest the Thai DCA's
( Dept. of Civil Aviation) apparent lack of regulatory authority regarding this
airline company . ( Corruption)
The U.S.A. FAA is considering , and being aggressively lobbied to downgrade
Thailand's Aviation safety standard.
More details to follow...
At Phuket Airport, September 16, 2008 as near as possible to the site of the crash and at the same time
of day 3:30 PM ( Afternoon)
Also, there will be demonstrations in front of Thai Embassy in France and perhaps
Washington, DC to protest the Thai DCA's
( Dept. of Civil Aviation) apparent lack of regulatory authority regarding this
airline company . ( Corruption)
The U.S.A. FAA is considering , and being aggressively lobbied to downgrade
Thailand's Aviation safety standard.
More details to follow...
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F/O Montri
A number of the people following this thread have commented to me on the tough manner in which I have pressed responsibility for the crash on First Officer Montri.
I thought I would share my reasoning for emphasizing Montri's failures:
(By all accounts, Montri was a very decent man, cared for and loved by his family, friends and co-workers and was one of the better Orient Thai First Officers. Nothing should or can take away from that.)
I thought I would share my reasoning for emphasizing Montri's failures:
- Arief was the captain and chief pilot. He was flying over hours and clearly continued to have issues flying an aircraft no matter his hours. Additionally, he was fasting for Ramadan. While it is terrible and unconscionable that he did not stop himself from flying, this is a known limitation of human nature and one of the many reasons aviation has so much redundancy. It was Udom's and the DCA's responsibility to ground him. They did not. The fact that Arief was Captain of that aircraft is the failure of Udom, Orient Thai, the DCA and Arief.
- Montri was an inexperienced First Officer and the flying pilot. He was over hours, under-trained and had been provided no education in the importance of safety in aviation. Montri was personally responsible for flying over hours. Udom, Orient Thai and the DCA are responsible for the fact that Montri was over hours, under-trainied and flying without the necessary understanding of safety.
- (To my understanding) in western commercial aviation, no one of Montri's skills or experience would be the flying pilot. Montri's inexperience, lack of skill and panic at the time when the aircraft was still rescue-able drives home the point that there are major differences in skill level and experience between the pilots of Orient Thai operated aircraft and international standards. A western First Officer would have had the skills to handle the situation. The fact that Montri could have been in a situation of flying that aircraft with passengers in a storm is a major failure of Orient Thai, Udom the DCA to have basic redundancy in their aviation systems.
- Finally, the DCA has clearly been looking to put blame on anyone who isn't Thai. They tried to fault the NTSB. They tried to say it was wind sheer. Now they are saying "pilot error" without providing any details. Arief, an Indonesian, was a non-factor in the moment. Where as Montri - the Thai backup pilot - was flying the aircraft and doomed it. IMO, to address the truth and ensure proper accountability and future safety in Thailand, Thai people must accept the fact that a Thai person made terrible mistakes in the moment (in addition to flying over hours). Once this fact is digested, Thailand can move forward to true accountability by asking themselves how Montri was able to be in such as situation.
(By all accounts, Montri was a very decent man, cared for and loved by his family, friends and co-workers and was one of the better Orient Thai First Officers. Nothing should or can take away from that.)