BRISTOL - 4
Brunel to Concorde
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I agree. There is not even a remote chance of 7 mppa being realised this year or even next unless something completely unexpected occurs next year. The management has certainly not suggested 7 mppa next year although it is a target/aspiration for the next 2-3 years according to the airport CEO a few months ago.
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Has anyone heard about any additional capacity on the CDG route or competition from another airline? I can't believe Brussels gets 3 flights per day but Paris only gets one, often full and often expensive flight.
Also, does anyone think Ryanair will ever expand at BRS? They have stayed fairly steady for quite a while now. Have they found their level or might they continue to grow. I guess the same goes for EZY but they seem to add a new destination each year.
Also, does anyone think Ryanair will ever expand at BRS? They have stayed fairly steady for quite a while now. Have they found their level or might they continue to grow. I guess the same goes for EZY but they seem to add a new destination each year.
Brunel to Concorde
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The way forward...................
Taking up bobsyeruncle's point about easyJet and Ryanair at BRS, and indeed the means to march towards 7 mppa and beyond, the context can often be usefully set by looking back.
easyJet is now responsible for about half the BRS passenger numbers and Ryanair about a fifth. In any business it's not normally a good thing to rely on a tiny number of major customers; only this week we've seen what this approach has done to a mobile phone company. However, in the regional airport business, especially the medium size and smaller ones, it's so often the only way if sufficient footfall is to be achieved to make the airport viable.
In 2001 Go recognised the potential of an under served region that possessed both a vibrant and substantial business market as well as a large pool of comfortably off people, often older and retired, who had the means and desire to fly frequently for leisure. easyJet continued to expand the Go network when it purchased the former BA low-cost airline and built up a based fleet of 12 A319s by 2008. The recession then intervened and without downsizing much easyJet marked time at BRS in terms of overall rotations, although winters began to see more parked up aircraft for parts of most days and still do. The same applies to Ryanair. From 2010 airport passenger numbers have risen slowly but consistently every year and easyJet now bases five A 320s and six A319s which is broadly the same number of available seats as in 2008.
The point was made about Cdg. easyJet does regularly sell out on this route early; already four inbound and three outbound rotations are 'sold' out' in the next six days - a common occurrence this summer on BRS-CDG-BRS. Furthermore, easyJet operates mainly 319s to Cdg although two days each week now seem to be A320-operated as against one day each week earlier in the summer. The fares in GBP that are available for next week are mostly into three figures per sector, well into three figures in many cases. It must be presumed that the airline is very satisfied with this yield and has no wish to dilute it by adding extra flights, although it did operate 2 x daily on some days a few years back, then in competition with AF ATRS that ran up to 3 x daily. The only acknowledgement that easyJet is currently making to the pull-out of AF last spring is to operate daily next January instead of 4 x weekly as has been the case in recent Januarys.
Ryanair set up shop at BRS at the beginning of winter 2007/2008 although it had flown three routes (Dublin, Girona and Shannon) for several years beforehand with aircraft from other bases. The base fairly soon became five aircraft but last year it was reduced to two, reportedly because of a failure to agree various charges with the airport. Ryanair maintained its schedule last summer using aircraft from other bases. This summer there are three based aircraft with other rotations operated by aircraft not based at BRS. Ryanair has reduced the number of summer and winter rotations at BRS from the high point of three or four years ago and more than easyJet will axe routes and begin new ones at the airport. On many of its routes it commands extremely high load factors, eg this summer the months of May, June, July and August have seen load factors of 94% and above each month on all the Polish, Lithuanian and Hungarian routes, frequently between 96% and 99% per month. This of course doesn't necessarily guarantee airline approval in terms of yield and there are recent examples of FR routes being withdrawn at BRS despite very high load factors.
At present then it's hard to suggest that easyJet and/or Ryanair will step up to the plate more substantially at BRS. If they don't who will drive the passenger figures forward as has inexorably been the case for the past 50 years?
Coupled with the apparent stagnation of easyjet and Ryanair is the fact that BRS's annual increasing passenger figures since the recession have been achieved against gradually diminishing flight numbers through a combination of larger aircraft and higher load factors but there will come a time – soon I suspect – when rotations will have to increase markedly for the growth to continue.
History suggests that BRS will somehow find a way of keeping the momentum going. Since 1961 CAA stats tell us that there have been only eight years where passenger numbers have fallen against the previous year, invariably at a time of recession or other significant negative event such as the collapse of Court Line - 1967, 1968, 1969, 1974, 1985, 1990, 1996 and 2009. Even in the days of the 70s and 80s when BRS was city council-owned and a drain on the rate payers' pockets the passenger numbers generally increased year on year although they were then counted by abacus as 300,000 per annum was not reached until 1983.
It will be extremely interesting for BRS aficionados to look back in ten years' time to see if the growth was maintained and how it was done. One thing seems certain: it won't be a walk in the park.
easyJet is now responsible for about half the BRS passenger numbers and Ryanair about a fifth. In any business it's not normally a good thing to rely on a tiny number of major customers; only this week we've seen what this approach has done to a mobile phone company. However, in the regional airport business, especially the medium size and smaller ones, it's so often the only way if sufficient footfall is to be achieved to make the airport viable.
In 2001 Go recognised the potential of an under served region that possessed both a vibrant and substantial business market as well as a large pool of comfortably off people, often older and retired, who had the means and desire to fly frequently for leisure. easyJet continued to expand the Go network when it purchased the former BA low-cost airline and built up a based fleet of 12 A319s by 2008. The recession then intervened and without downsizing much easyJet marked time at BRS in terms of overall rotations, although winters began to see more parked up aircraft for parts of most days and still do. The same applies to Ryanair. From 2010 airport passenger numbers have risen slowly but consistently every year and easyJet now bases five A 320s and six A319s which is broadly the same number of available seats as in 2008.
The point was made about Cdg. easyJet does regularly sell out on this route early; already four inbound and three outbound rotations are 'sold' out' in the next six days - a common occurrence this summer on BRS-CDG-BRS. Furthermore, easyJet operates mainly 319s to Cdg although two days each week now seem to be A320-operated as against one day each week earlier in the summer. The fares in GBP that are available for next week are mostly into three figures per sector, well into three figures in many cases. It must be presumed that the airline is very satisfied with this yield and has no wish to dilute it by adding extra flights, although it did operate 2 x daily on some days a few years back, then in competition with AF ATRS that ran up to 3 x daily. The only acknowledgement that easyJet is currently making to the pull-out of AF last spring is to operate daily next January instead of 4 x weekly as has been the case in recent Januarys.
Ryanair set up shop at BRS at the beginning of winter 2007/2008 although it had flown three routes (Dublin, Girona and Shannon) for several years beforehand with aircraft from other bases. The base fairly soon became five aircraft but last year it was reduced to two, reportedly because of a failure to agree various charges with the airport. Ryanair maintained its schedule last summer using aircraft from other bases. This summer there are three based aircraft with other rotations operated by aircraft not based at BRS. Ryanair has reduced the number of summer and winter rotations at BRS from the high point of three or four years ago and more than easyJet will axe routes and begin new ones at the airport. On many of its routes it commands extremely high load factors, eg this summer the months of May, June, July and August have seen load factors of 94% and above each month on all the Polish, Lithuanian and Hungarian routes, frequently between 96% and 99% per month. This of course doesn't necessarily guarantee airline approval in terms of yield and there are recent examples of FR routes being withdrawn at BRS despite very high load factors.
At present then it's hard to suggest that easyJet and/or Ryanair will step up to the plate more substantially at BRS. If they don't who will drive the passenger figures forward as has inexorably been the case for the past 50 years?
Coupled with the apparent stagnation of easyjet and Ryanair is the fact that BRS's annual increasing passenger figures since the recession have been achieved against gradually diminishing flight numbers through a combination of larger aircraft and higher load factors but there will come a time – soon I suspect – when rotations will have to increase markedly for the growth to continue.
History suggests that BRS will somehow find a way of keeping the momentum going. Since 1961 CAA stats tell us that there have been only eight years where passenger numbers have fallen against the previous year, invariably at a time of recession or other significant negative event such as the collapse of Court Line - 1967, 1968, 1969, 1974, 1985, 1990, 1996 and 2009. Even in the days of the 70s and 80s when BRS was city council-owned and a drain on the rate payers' pockets the passenger numbers generally increased year on year although they were then counted by abacus as 300,000 per annum was not reached until 1983.
It will be extremely interesting for BRS aficionados to look back in ten years' time to see if the growth was maintained and how it was done. One thing seems certain: it won't be a walk in the park.
Your potted history shows easyjet to be the steady girlfriend of BRS whilst Others are the flirty strumpet.
BRS cannot experience that same growth again. What it needs now is a regular, reliant, customer base which finds the experience tolerable to good.
The futures Bristol, the futures ......
WWW
BRS cannot experience that same growth again. What it needs now is a regular, reliant, customer base which finds the experience tolerable to good.
The futures Bristol, the futures ......
WWW
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Thanks MV for a very comprehensive answer to my not very specific question.
In the attempt to smash the 7mppa barrier, It is going to be very tricky based on current rotations. With the expansion of the airport will hopefully come an increase in flights given that there will be more spaces for passengers to wait rather than just in the cramped terminal like at present.
I still think there is plenty of scope for Easyjet and Ryanair to increase their route network from Bristol but they may be wishing for flight times when the airport can't currently accommodate them. Maybe it is BRS that is currently holding back some expansion for the comfort of travellers?
The answer may be new carriers such as SAS, the often mentioned Turkish, a new transatlantic carrier or even another LoCo such as Wizz, Norwegian or AirBerlin (all of which I have found to be very good on the times I have used them). What does anyone think of the chances of this?
It's just a shame that the next 2 flights I have to take will both be from LHR as MUC and CDG were ridiculously expensive from Bristol.
In the attempt to smash the 7mppa barrier, It is going to be very tricky based on current rotations. With the expansion of the airport will hopefully come an increase in flights given that there will be more spaces for passengers to wait rather than just in the cramped terminal like at present.
I still think there is plenty of scope for Easyjet and Ryanair to increase their route network from Bristol but they may be wishing for flight times when the airport can't currently accommodate them. Maybe it is BRS that is currently holding back some expansion for the comfort of travellers?
The answer may be new carriers such as SAS, the often mentioned Turkish, a new transatlantic carrier or even another LoCo such as Wizz, Norwegian or AirBerlin (all of which I have found to be very good on the times I have used them). What does anyone think of the chances of this?
It's just a shame that the next 2 flights I have to take will both be from LHR as MUC and CDG were ridiculously expensive from Bristol.
Brunel to Concorde
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WORLD ROUTES: Bristol Airport Bullish on Prospects for Breakout Year :: Routesonline
Interesting report from the World Routes Conference currently taking place in Chicago that features an interview with Shaun Browne, the BRS Aviation Director.
Not only is 2014 expected to be a record year with around 6.3 million passengers but Browne is describing 2015 as a 'breakout' year with passenger volumes pushing towards 6.6 million and beyond.
The report states that details of an enhanced easyJet programme are expected soon which together with a bigger TUI offering next summer and other yet to be announced ventures will push up passenger numbers next year.
The report is well worth a read to anyone interested in the fortunes of BRS. Inevitably there is some spin but looking beyond that it does seem that the airport management is confident of a very good 2015, which may well be the reason why the eastern terminal extension is following on almost immediately after the completion of the central walkway with its new gates and pre-boarding areas.
Interesting report from the World Routes Conference currently taking place in Chicago that features an interview with Shaun Browne, the BRS Aviation Director.
Not only is 2014 expected to be a record year with around 6.3 million passengers but Browne is describing 2015 as a 'breakout' year with passenger volumes pushing towards 6.6 million and beyond.
The report states that details of an enhanced easyJet programme are expected soon which together with a bigger TUI offering next summer and other yet to be announced ventures will push up passenger numbers next year.
The report is well worth a read to anyone interested in the fortunes of BRS. Inevitably there is some spin but looking beyond that it does seem that the airport management is confident of a very good 2015, which may well be the reason why the eastern terminal extension is following on almost immediately after the completion of the central walkway with its new gates and pre-boarding areas.
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BRISTOL - ZURICH (FLIGHTS SUSPENDED WINTER 2014)
I contacted Helvetic Airways with a flight enquiry for flights over Winter 2014, they have apologised that there will be no flights to Bristol over the winter but flights will return for Spring 2015.
No mention of reasons why or what schedule they will come back with in the spring. An unfortunate loss, wonder if another airline may consider stepping into the void. I think it has been mentioned before on this/other forums that bmiregional would be a good fit, with E145 a double daily schedule would probably work giving a day return option.
I contacted Helvetic Airways with a flight enquiry for flights over Winter 2014, they have apologised that there will be no flights to Bristol over the winter but flights will return for Spring 2015.
No mention of reasons why or what schedule they will come back with in the spring. An unfortunate loss, wonder if another airline may consider stepping into the void. I think it has been mentioned before on this/other forums that bmiregional would be a good fit, with E145 a double daily schedule would probably work giving a day return option.
Brunel to Concorde
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Helvetic
Last winter they took a break in November and then flew just 2 x weekly for the remainder of the winter. This summer has seen noticeably improved load factors, albeit it's 3 x weekly as against 4 x weekly in summer 2013. The monthly average loads (vide CAA stats) have been around the 60 mark with 65 the best in July.
Perhaps the main problem is that BRS is so well served by easyJet to Geneva. In 2013 BRS was again the busiest UK non-London route to/from GVA in terms of passengers with over 181,000, mainly easyJet but with some ski charters.
GVA, like ZRH, with an airport rail station serving most of the country is an extremely convenient way in to Switzerland. easyJet's multi frequencies and generally lower fares than Helvetic, not to mention its much stronger brand awareness in the BRS catchment, are always going to make it a formidable competitor.
Furthermore, I notice that easyJet has increased its GVA schedule this winter compared with last. It now offers up to 21 weekly rotations in the ski season, including five on Saturdays and four on Sundays, which is an increase of two per week.
It is a shame about Helvetic taking a complete break this winter but entirely understandable. It seems to recognise that its BRS market to/from ZRH is purely a summer one.
Would anyone else take a punt? It seems unlikely especially as Helvetic says it's coming back next spring and easyJet would still be putting that big orange shadow over the West Country to Switzerland. The only airline that might be interested would probably be bmi regional but I would suspect that's a long shot.
Perhaps the main problem is that BRS is so well served by easyJet to Geneva. In 2013 BRS was again the busiest UK non-London route to/from GVA in terms of passengers with over 181,000, mainly easyJet but with some ski charters.
GVA, like ZRH, with an airport rail station serving most of the country is an extremely convenient way in to Switzerland. easyJet's multi frequencies and generally lower fares than Helvetic, not to mention its much stronger brand awareness in the BRS catchment, are always going to make it a formidable competitor.
Furthermore, I notice that easyJet has increased its GVA schedule this winter compared with last. It now offers up to 21 weekly rotations in the ski season, including five on Saturdays and four on Sundays, which is an increase of two per week.
It is a shame about Helvetic taking a complete break this winter but entirely understandable. It seems to recognise that its BRS market to/from ZRH is purely a summer one.
Would anyone else take a punt? It seems unlikely especially as Helvetic says it's coming back next spring and easyJet would still be putting that big orange shadow over the West Country to Switzerland. The only airline that might be interested would probably be bmi regional but I would suspect that's a long shot.
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BD working BRS-ZRH would have the benefit of a potential codeshare with LX (through the LH group), and more of that feeder traffic that seems to be helping FRA and MUC so much. It's also fairly comfy for an E-145 (shorter than MXP, about the same as MUC)
LX's short haul network through Europe compliments LH's well (and can be a bit cheaper), and their long-haul service beats LH's hands down.
BRS-FRA is going 3x from S15, and both MUC and FRA get Saturday morning departures, so I hope that's boding well for that current strategy. Maybe the HAM frame could work BRS-ZRH in the midday slot?
LX's short haul network through Europe compliments LH's well (and can be a bit cheaper), and their long-haul service beats LH's hands down.
BRS-FRA is going 3x from S15, and both MUC and FRA get Saturday morning departures, so I hope that's boding well for that current strategy. Maybe the HAM frame could work BRS-ZRH in the midday slot?
Brunel to Concorde
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It was reported last week that the easyJet AMS base will fly to BRS 2 x weekly next year so that would make 13 x weekly plus the 4 x daily KLM E190s.
Mayfly is showing CDG next week on the 320 every day except Saturday when it will be a 319 so at least that's a slight increase in seats if it runs like that through the winter.
Last week on another website a poster there who is well versed in BRS matters and worth listening to hinted strongly of more easyJet routes so Gibraltar may not be the only one, good news though it is.
It also seems from Mayfly that the winter base complement will be 4 320s and 6 319s. Last winter it was 3 and 7, not that all the aircraft are used all the time every day through the winter.
Mayfly is showing CDG next week on the 320 every day except Saturday when it will be a 319 so at least that's a slight increase in seats if it runs like that through the winter.
Last week on another website a poster there who is well versed in BRS matters and worth listening to hinted strongly of more easyJet routes so Gibraltar may not be the only one, good news though it is.
It also seems from Mayfly that the winter base complement will be 4 320s and 6 319s. Last winter it was 3 and 7, not that all the aircraft are used all the time every day through the winter.
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Very little fanfare coming out of BRS for this new Porto route, and I haven't seen anything anywhere about SK returning next year. Is it for the same time frame or has it been extended?
MV, what is this other website you refer to? Can you me toon IT on here? It would be good to see Easyjet announce a raft of new routes. It makes more of a headline than drip-feeding them day by day. Ultimately though, who cares... They obviously have a great relationship with BRS and are doing very well there. Long may it continue
MV, what is this other website you refer to? Can you me toon IT on here? It would be good to see Easyjet announce a raft of new routes. It makes more of a headline than drip-feeding them day by day. Ultimately though, who cares... They obviously have a great relationship with BRS and are doing very well there. Long may it continue