BRISTOL - 4
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Brunel to Concorde
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Thomson long haul
The news today has received limited coverage in the local media. The regional ITV early evening news did cover it (with an inevitable interview with Simon Calder who seemed very underwhelmed about it all) but the BBC main regional tv bulletin didn’t even mention the news.
G-TUIB landed on 27 and used the full length parallel taxiway to the western apron which at least confirmed that it can use this taxiway, something that originally was thought not possible because it was said the wings would overhang a perimeter fence next to a public road immediately outside the airport boundary. The airport master plan spoke of constructing a turning circle to overcome the difficulty.
I’ve not read any confirmation today that the 787 will be able to fly non-stop to Cancun (it may have been said and I missed it of course). If it can’t then the economic dynamic of using BRS must be considerable as the CWL runway presumably could accommodate a non-stop service.
Another interesting point concerns possible APD devolution to Wales. Thomson can’t know the government’s intentions so they must have decided that if the tax is devolved they can live with a more favourable APD regime in Wales or they can’t and will switch the flights to CWL in a year or two.
If the latter were to occur it would give the BRS owners primary evidence that the more favourable tax conditions had caused market distortion and affected competition and might be significant if they decided to challenge APD devolution in the European Court of Justice. That’s assuming the UK doesn’t vote to leave the EU in which case the UK government could adopt, if it wished, a more imaginative method of mitigating the effects in England of APD devolution to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland as it would no longer be bound by EU competition rules or EU state aid rules which must meet the ‘Azores criteria’.
G-TUIB landed on 27 and used the full length parallel taxiway to the western apron which at least confirmed that it can use this taxiway, something that originally was thought not possible because it was said the wings would overhang a perimeter fence next to a public road immediately outside the airport boundary. The airport master plan spoke of constructing a turning circle to overcome the difficulty.
I’ve not read any confirmation today that the 787 will be able to fly non-stop to Cancun (it may have been said and I missed it of course). If it can’t then the economic dynamic of using BRS must be considerable as the CWL runway presumably could accommodate a non-stop service.
Another interesting point concerns possible APD devolution to Wales. Thomson can’t know the government’s intentions so they must have decided that if the tax is devolved they can live with a more favourable APD regime in Wales or they can’t and will switch the flights to CWL in a year or two.
If the latter were to occur it would give the BRS owners primary evidence that the more favourable tax conditions had caused market distortion and affected competition and might be significant if they decided to challenge APD devolution in the European Court of Justice. That’s assuming the UK doesn’t vote to leave the EU in which case the UK government could adopt, if it wished, a more imaginative method of mitigating the effects in England of APD devolution to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland as it would no longer be bound by EU competition rules or EU state aid rules which must meet the ‘Azores criteria’.
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Key to longhaul from BRS on the Dreamliner is the Yield per flight. The flights will I think be payload restricted and some will be lost to weather but because of the high demand the yield will be high per flight. Therefore even after diversion and restriction the routes will be profitable. LBA too has a short runway and is even more elevated and across the prevailing wind. It is not the proximity to MAN of LBA which will rule out Dreamliner flights from LBA but the location within Yorkshire [allied to accessibility and functionality] which more than halves the demand. Low demand equals poor yield. Incidentally, as we speak BRS is now twice as many passengers (rolling) as LBA and pulling away. Bristol, although far from ideal in terms of airfield characteristics controls the catchment. If it did have a runway extension, a la BHX, it would grow even more quickly like BHX is doing now.
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If they can do SFB non-stop on a B787 from BRS there should be no issues with routes of a similar or shorter mileage being launched, a la Qatar to DOH*.
*Don't pretend to know whether QR would make any money from it or not though.
*Don't pretend to know whether QR would make any money from it or not though.
Brunel to Concorde
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Long haul
Taking up a couple of LEEDS APPROACH's points, BRS would certainly be even more successful with a larger and better sited airfield. The numbers that pack through the airport despite its physical limitations and challenging surface connectivity are testimony to this. However, it’s highly unlikely that a runway extension will be built. I set out the airport’s current thinking on this in #2912 on 4 April.
BRS does have some parallels with LBA, apart from physical ones, in that it also loses a lot of potential passengers from its catchment to a larger airport (LHR) which, from some areas of Greater Bristol, is no more than 75 minutes along the M4. CAA surveys in recent years consistently show that over five million people from the South West use the London airports annually, mainly LHR. However, much of this is inevitable as BRS, even if it was physically larger, could never offer the range and frequency of flights, especially long haul, that LHR enjoys. BHX is also a useful alternative with airports at Cardiff, Exeter and even Southampton and Bournemouth (for certain outer parts of the BRS core catchment) available as well.
Ryanair
Ryanair has announced its winter 2016-2017 schedules from BRS. There will be 18 destinations, three more than last winter with 68 weekly rotations, an increase of 24%. Treviso, Krakow and Bergamo will be new for this winter. Treviso has previously been a summer-only route but extending it to winter may be a response to easyJet who restarted Venice MP this spring after a number of dormant years on the route, and it too will operate through next winter. Ryanair has just commenced Krakow against the long established easyJet route and both will operate next winter. Bergamo used to be year round but has been summer-only in recent years.
Alicante, Malaga, Faro, Lanzarote and Warsaw Modlin will all see extra frequency next winter, with the latter’s 4 x weekly possibly a look towards Wizz Air’s Warsaw Chopin that begins next month and will continue thorough next winter.
Ryanair has continued to add frequency for this summer which on average will see 13 additional rotations each week compared with last summer, an increase of over 12%.
easyJet
Having announced some time ago that they will be basing an additional Airbus (the 13th) at BRS for the main part of this summer easyJet has recently revealed its winter 2016-2017 programme. Routes extended into winter for the first time are Bordeaux and Bilbao, with increased frequencies on half a dozen other routes.
Airport Growth
BRS enjoyed another excellent month in March with CAA stats showing that 511,153 passengers used the airport, an increase of 14.2%. This brought the 12-month rolling total to 6,949,057. This means that in the first three months of this year nearly 168,000 more passengers passed through the airport than in the same period in 2015 which itself saw the passenger total for the calendar year as a whole grow by over 7% with nearly 450,000 more passengers than in 2014.
If the first three months of this year are replicated throughout the year the airport would find itself with around 7.45 million passengers at the end of 2016. However, it’s unlikely that growth will be sustained at this level throughout the year although a total of 7 million passengers should be exceeded comfortably.
BRS does have some parallels with LBA, apart from physical ones, in that it also loses a lot of potential passengers from its catchment to a larger airport (LHR) which, from some areas of Greater Bristol, is no more than 75 minutes along the M4. CAA surveys in recent years consistently show that over five million people from the South West use the London airports annually, mainly LHR. However, much of this is inevitable as BRS, even if it was physically larger, could never offer the range and frequency of flights, especially long haul, that LHR enjoys. BHX is also a useful alternative with airports at Cardiff, Exeter and even Southampton and Bournemouth (for certain outer parts of the BRS core catchment) available as well.
Ryanair
Ryanair has announced its winter 2016-2017 schedules from BRS. There will be 18 destinations, three more than last winter with 68 weekly rotations, an increase of 24%. Treviso, Krakow and Bergamo will be new for this winter. Treviso has previously been a summer-only route but extending it to winter may be a response to easyJet who restarted Venice MP this spring after a number of dormant years on the route, and it too will operate through next winter. Ryanair has just commenced Krakow against the long established easyJet route and both will operate next winter. Bergamo used to be year round but has been summer-only in recent years.
Alicante, Malaga, Faro, Lanzarote and Warsaw Modlin will all see extra frequency next winter, with the latter’s 4 x weekly possibly a look towards Wizz Air’s Warsaw Chopin that begins next month and will continue thorough next winter.
Ryanair has continued to add frequency for this summer which on average will see 13 additional rotations each week compared with last summer, an increase of over 12%.
easyJet
Having announced some time ago that they will be basing an additional Airbus (the 13th) at BRS for the main part of this summer easyJet has recently revealed its winter 2016-2017 programme. Routes extended into winter for the first time are Bordeaux and Bilbao, with increased frequencies on half a dozen other routes.
Airport Growth
BRS enjoyed another excellent month in March with CAA stats showing that 511,153 passengers used the airport, an increase of 14.2%. This brought the 12-month rolling total to 6,949,057. This means that in the first three months of this year nearly 168,000 more passengers passed through the airport than in the same period in 2015 which itself saw the passenger total for the calendar year as a whole grow by over 7% with nearly 450,000 more passengers than in 2014.
If the first three months of this year are replicated throughout the year the airport would find itself with around 7.45 million passengers at the end of 2016. However, it’s unlikely that growth will be sustained at this level throughout the year although a total of 7 million passengers should be exceeded comfortably.
Brunel to Concorde
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Ryanair
Looking at next week's Mayfly most mornings require five aircraft for the first group of departures before 0800 plus a DUB-based aircraft to operate the return Dublin flight.
On another subject, the local paper carried an article last week on the news that Thomson's B 787 will commence operations next year. Embedded in the article was this paragraph: Last year the airport welcomed a record 6.7 million passengers through its doors. And if the predictions are right then that number will reach eight million in 2017.
I haven't read anywhere else about 8 million being reached by the end of 2017 and if that is to be achieved there will need to be some more routes and/or significant frequency increases on a number of existing routes.
Arrival of Dreamliner marks dawning of new age for Bristol Airport | Bristol Post
On another subject, the local paper carried an article last week on the news that Thomson's B 787 will commence operations next year. Embedded in the article was this paragraph: Last year the airport welcomed a record 6.7 million passengers through its doors. And if the predictions are right then that number will reach eight million in 2017.
I haven't read anywhere else about 8 million being reached by the end of 2017 and if that is to be achieved there will need to be some more routes and/or significant frequency increases on a number of existing routes.
Arrival of Dreamliner marks dawning of new age for Bristol Airport | Bristol Post
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If that article is accurate in terms of the 787 range from BRS (5000mi), then many destinations mentioned are still well out of range without moderate to severe load penalties or a fuel stop. Also I would love to know if 5000mi is based on optimum conditions at BRS, and if it applies to both 09 and 27.
LAX, JNB, GRU, and BKK are all at least 10% over the quoted 5000 mile range, and are the types of potential destinations the article refers to. (I am not sure there is an economic case for any of those except LAX possibly anyway)
YYZ, BOM, IAD, ORD, AUH, DOH, DXB, ATL, are all well within range of course, and with the exception of BOM and YYZ are all markets that COULD work from BRS in my opinion.
LAX, JNB, GRU, and BKK are all at least 10% over the quoted 5000 mile range, and are the types of potential destinations the article refers to. (I am not sure there is an economic case for any of those except LAX possibly anyway)
YYZ, BOM, IAD, ORD, AUH, DOH, DXB, ATL, are all well within range of course, and with the exception of BOM and YYZ are all markets that COULD work from BRS in my opinion.
If that article is accurate in terms of the 787 range from BRS (5000mi), then many destinations mentioned are still well out of range without moderate to severe load penalties or a fuel stop. Also I would love to know if 5000mi is based on optimum conditions at BRS, and if it applies to both 09 and 27.
According to Wikipedia, yes I know, the range of the 787-9 is 8460 mi. BA reckon the range is 9440 mi but BA have business class unlike Thomson. Even if you knock off 2000 mi to account for overly optimistic projections from Boeing and Thomson packing in the punters that still leaves you with 6460 mi.
In fact having just checked the Boeing site they quote a range of 7355 nmi (~8460 mi) with 242 passengers in a two class configuration.
Brunel to Concorde
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long haul
The BRS management seems cautious - some might say realistic - re the demand for long hauled scheduled routes. In their November 2006 master plan, in which they now say that although much in the aviation world has changed since then the principles of their master plan still apply, they suggest that probably only four long haul scheduled routes would be viable: New York, Washington, Dubai and another US destination such as Atlanta.
Maybe Doha or Abu Dhabi are interchangeable with Dubai.
The master plan goes on to say that there is further demand for long haul services (to other destinations) by charter aircraft.
Maybe Doha or Abu Dhabi are interchangeable with Dubai.
The master plan goes on to say that there is further demand for long haul services (to other destinations) by charter aircraft.
I can't see any Middle East carrier investing in BRS especially as EK now have a regular 380 service at BHX and QR have started fly to DOH as well. United tried and failed which other carriers would have observed and I doubt whether they will look again for the foreseeable future. Don't forget the M4 and M5 corridors work well for both BHX and LHR.
Brunel to Concorde
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You're absolutely correct about the M4 and M5 being well used corridors for passengers in the Bristol region seeking long haul from LHR and BHX (I use London for long haul and have used Birmingham too), and this is almost certainly why the BRS management in its master plan believes that scope for long haul scheduled services is limited, apart from the physical constraints of the airfield.
As for the Middle East, last autumn the UK manager of Qatar Airways, Richard Oliver, said his airline was looking at serving South West England - see third paragraph in attached link.
Qatar Air Mulls Gatwick Route as Heathrow Flight Upgraded to 787 - Bloomberg
Of course, looking to do something doesn't mean that you will but it does suggest that Qatar at least recognises there is a potential market worth looking at in the South West. It needn't necessarily be BRS; it could be CWL or even EXT.
Continental lasted five and a half years on BRS-EWR and eventually moved the service to LHR to become their fifth daily EWR rotation. They didn't have LHR access when they began BRS-EWR in May 2005 and cited the recession and poor take-up in the business-first cabin as two of the main reasons for the move.
BRS management has been quite public in recent years about talks with airlines to reinstate a NYC service and last year said that talks were at 'an advanced stage' with the expectation that a route would commence this year. It was assumed that the airline was United or American, or perhaps both.
That the route did not come about may well prove your comment correct but, again, there seems little doubt that airlines are at least exploring the possibility.
My own view, and it's shared by some acquaintances, is that long haul airlines are awaiting the decision on devolving APD to Wales (where it would be cut to nil according to the Welsh Assembly Government) before making final decisions whether, and if so where, to operate such flights from Severnside.
As for the Middle East, last autumn the UK manager of Qatar Airways, Richard Oliver, said his airline was looking at serving South West England - see third paragraph in attached link.
Qatar Air Mulls Gatwick Route as Heathrow Flight Upgraded to 787 - Bloomberg
Of course, looking to do something doesn't mean that you will but it does suggest that Qatar at least recognises there is a potential market worth looking at in the South West. It needn't necessarily be BRS; it could be CWL or even EXT.
Continental lasted five and a half years on BRS-EWR and eventually moved the service to LHR to become their fifth daily EWR rotation. They didn't have LHR access when they began BRS-EWR in May 2005 and cited the recession and poor take-up in the business-first cabin as two of the main reasons for the move.
BRS management has been quite public in recent years about talks with airlines to reinstate a NYC service and last year said that talks were at 'an advanced stage' with the expectation that a route would commence this year. It was assumed that the airline was United or American, or perhaps both.
That the route did not come about may well prove your comment correct but, again, there seems little doubt that airlines are at least exploring the possibility.
My own view, and it's shared by some acquaintances, is that long haul airlines are awaiting the decision on devolving APD to Wales (where it would be cut to nil according to the Welsh Assembly Government) before making final decisions whether, and if so where, to operate such flights from Severnside.
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Regarding range, don't forget the Thomson 787-800's are fitted with far less seats than is possible in charter/low-cost config so the range is further than otherwise would have been if they had adopted similar config to their 767-300ER's
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Whatever the performance requirements or route potential of any aircraft / config I believe at minimum BRS requires a starter extension. TORA is limiting any decisions. I know many who in a heartbeat would choose to fly out of BRS and pay a small premium to avoid LHR, myself included. I know the 'build and they shall come' is not generally a sensible way to approach these matters and appreciate the airports caution but is it more to do with the local politics that could come into play with any runway changes?
On a separate point, stands are a bit limiting. I assume old staff car park could help but perhaps not by enough. Long haul AC are space guzzlers?
On a separate point, stands are a bit limiting. I assume old staff car park could help but perhaps not by enough. Long haul AC are space guzzlers?
Brunel to Concorde
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Bristol Airport has been something of a building site for most of the past ten years with extensions, walkways and other amelioration at the terminal. Currently the terminal is being extended again at the western end (the eastern extension was completed last summer) and an onsite airport hotel is also taking shape. Three new aircraft stands were built about three years ago.
They've spent over £100 million in infrastructure development in the past few years and the next item in the jigsaw seems to be a multi storey car park with the airport in the process of asking the local authority if they can extend one of the open air car parks in tandem with the multi storey car park development instead of after the multi storey car park is built which was in the original planning application.
After that they may look at the old terminal building, currently used for administration and other matters. The development plan calls for demolition of the old terminal and the construction of an eastern walkway to new stands to be built in the area where the old terminal is situated.
This summer there could be 28-30 aircraft parked during some part of the night at times on the north side (ie the area used by all scheduled and charter aircraft) with easyJet, Ryanair, Thomson and Thomas Cook basing a total of 22 aircraft for starters.
As to any runway extension there would undoubtedly be a furious reaction from environmental groups and others if such a scheme was mooted seriously, the more so if it involved any encroachment onto Felton Common which, anyway, has been declared a Local Nature Reserve under the relevant legislation by the local authority.
The major expansion plans, now part way into construction, were delayed by several years due mainly to an extremely well organised, well supported, well financed and well connected organisation called SBAE (Stop Bristol Airport Expansion). When the expansion plans were being considered the local authority received objections from people and groups from around the world.
They've spent over £100 million in infrastructure development in the past few years and the next item in the jigsaw seems to be a multi storey car park with the airport in the process of asking the local authority if they can extend one of the open air car parks in tandem with the multi storey car park development instead of after the multi storey car park is built which was in the original planning application.
After that they may look at the old terminal building, currently used for administration and other matters. The development plan calls for demolition of the old terminal and the construction of an eastern walkway to new stands to be built in the area where the old terminal is situated.
This summer there could be 28-30 aircraft parked during some part of the night at times on the north side (ie the area used by all scheduled and charter aircraft) with easyJet, Ryanair, Thomson and Thomas Cook basing a total of 22 aircraft for starters.
As to any runway extension there would undoubtedly be a furious reaction from environmental groups and others if such a scheme was mooted seriously, the more so if it involved any encroachment onto Felton Common which, anyway, has been declared a Local Nature Reserve under the relevant legislation by the local authority.
The major expansion plans, now part way into construction, were delayed by several years due mainly to an extremely well organised, well supported, well financed and well connected organisation called SBAE (Stop Bristol Airport Expansion). When the expansion plans were being considered the local authority received objections from people and groups from around the world.