LONDON CITY - 2

[BAladdy]

Just noticed that WX are dropping DRS from 13th September.

[Wingman1000]

And WX's summer operation of Deauville has been cancelled after it was on sale for few months.

[Skipness One Echo]

Why exactly are Swiss dropping Basle? What's changed in the market?

[insuindi]

@Skipness - Swiss closed their entire Basel operations end of May and withdrew completely from Basel, given the competition there and their nearby ZRH base.

[WHBM]

I see Bombardier have brought over a CS100 in Swiss livery for the Paris show.

Photos: Bombardier CSeries CS100 (BD-500-1A10) Aircraft Pictures | Airliners.net

Any chance of it doing a passing visit into LCY to start the steep approach certification ? Apparently Swiss intend to introduce it here later this year.

[Wingman1000]

CSeries introduction will be later:
- schedule will be revealed in first quarter of 2016
- LCY operation will start late 2016 and early 2017


SWISS to Reveal Initial C Series Routes Early Next Year :: Routesonline

[tws123]

New route to Cork operated by CityJet begins on the 1 October 2015.


3x daily Mon-Fri, 1x Sat, 2x Sun

[good egg]

LCY for sale

Anyone got £2bn to spare?...

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/458eba88-3...#axzz3hy8FGVJL

[Wingman1000]

Interesting timing, the airport being likely at its height.

[good egg]

Not really at its height yet...probably hit a little over 85,000 movements this calendar year (out of 120,000 permitted).
Passenger numbers will certainly be over 4m for the calendar year too (in fact they are over 4m for the last 12 months already).
The western pier (permitted) development is already underway - just as well with those passenger numbers!

I guess the big question for potential investors is whether the airport will be successful in its bid to have Boris's decision overturned and allow further expansion of terminal, apron & taxiway to the east.

Worth a punt?

[wallp]

Given how heaving the airport is at peak times, making for a much less pleasant flying experience than in the past, expansion seems to be absolutely necessary.

[VickersVicount]

I presume that the nature of GIPs business, to fatten them up and aim for maximum return, seems to be same story at EDI, I would guess it would be next to go before a LGW sell off. A bit if a shame always having that uncertain possibility hanging over employees etc.

[WHBM]

From high finance to fine detail, but I haven't been down the main pier for a few weeks and notice a piling rig set up by the gates there. What work is going on ?

While I'm on trivia, anyone know what's happened to the airport's Consultative Committee minutes, always a useful source of news on developments, which have not appeared on their website since last October, in fact their website front page says the next meeting is in January 2015, which seems to show something has gone awry.

Regarding the sale, GIP will have been looking for a return on capital invested from their £750m of some years ago, but the new owners, if they come up with the stated £2m (which I think is dubious in full) would be looking to get 2.5 times as much out of the same facility. So I'm afraid still more overcrowding and high fees. Will the car park be £50/hour ?

[good egg]

Originally Posted by WHBM

From high finance to fine detail, but I haven't been down the main pier for a few weeks and notice a piling rig set up by the gates there. What work is going on?

That's the western pier development...extending the first floor of the pier (northwards) to create extra seating (approx 600) and a couple of retail outlets.

[flying phil 2007]

ATC at LCY off sick ??

Lots of diversions and cancellations last night - I was on
BA8717 G-LCYS - EDI-LCY diverted to Southend - we were told problems with air traffic control at LCY - staff sickness so can't handle all the flights into LCY.
Another Cityflyer was also there at Southend. Also FlyBe had diverted there as well.
Think I will stick to using the train in the future.

[Wingman1000]

Originally Posted by good egg

Not really at its height yet...probably hit a little over 85,000 movements this calendar year (out of 120,000 permitted).
Passenger numbers will certainly be over 4m for the calendar year too (in fact they are over 4m for the last 12 months already).

Not as a capacity height, but more as a demand height:
- CityJet has reduced its operation over the last years - are they ever expanding again in the future?
- how profitable is Flybe's operation in LCY?
- what other flag carriers or smaller independent carriers are willing and have the right aircraft to operate to LCY?

[Expressflight]

The problem that caused the LCY diversions yesterday evening seems to be that Swanwick couldn't offer sufficient capacity on Thames Radar and set a flow rate limit of only 8 per hour, thus causing knock on delays. So not actually the fault of LCY in any way.

[Set 1013]

So Swanwick didn't have the capacity yesterday to control all the required flow into LCY, So aircraft diverted to Southend? Don't you still talk to Thames radar going into and out of Southend. Am I missing something obvious?
Tin hats on and standing by for the flack.

[good egg]

Originally Posted by Wingman1000

Not as a capacity height, but more as a demand height:
- CityJet has reduced its operation over the last years - are they ever expanding again in the future?
- how profitable is Flybe's operation in LCY?
- what other flag carriers or smaller independent carriers are willing and have the right aircraft to operate to LCY?

Aaaaarrrggh! I had typed a looooonng response to this but my phone died at an inappropriate moment!

So, CityJet...seem to be performing better on their reduced operations...albeit the relatively low oil price helps (with their gas guzzlers). At some point though they will have to re-fleet in order to continue operation. By selling off some of their RJs and leasing them back they have bought themselves time to make a sound decision. In fact they are also opening a new route (Cork?) to supplement their remaining high-yielding routes. So not all doom and gloom.

FlyBe....mixed bag I guess. Some routes are doing very well (Edinburgh is due to go 7 rotations a day in winter, Belfast City also appears to be very busy). Dublin was busy but BA CityFlyer have upped their game (as have CityJet) hence the FlyBe demise.

Speaking of BA CityFlyer...huge increase in movements, and word also of more E190s to come? (Will need crews of course!) Now the dominant carrier at LCY. Not sure that the Greek routes will return next summer but who knows?

Of the other flag-carriers, Lufthansa, Swiss, Alitalia, Luxair, VLM, etc., I can't say for certain but the opportunities of E-jets, E2-jets, SSJs, C-series must be enticing.

Having said that, there is probably a good market in DH8D and NextGen DH8s/ATRs to provide affordable options. The airport will no doubt be keen to accomodate 50+ pax aircraft to increase its non-aero profit percentage (LCY remains one of the few airports where "aero" margins outweigh "non-aero" but for how long?).
The clientele remains largely the same, business travellers who appreciate the short check-in times before onward journey - even the "leisure" routes seem to be occupied by the same people.

So, without planning (mayoral!) permission I'd expect passenger figures to top out around 6m pax/year as the combined effects of slightly larger aircraft types and punctuality become a feature, with east apron/taxiway/terminal expansion (and larger aircraft types) I'd expect that figure to rise to around 8m pax/year.

With approval I'd be surprised if PdG didn't become a hub to serve, much like Frankfurt & Amsterdam, together with business-only routes direct to Dubai, Mosow and U.S. east coast.

All in all, whether permission for expansion is granted or not, I suspect LCY is a relative cash-cow for an investor...whether it will realise the £2b price tag is, in my opinion, dependent on the liklihood of approval for expansion. An investor with a pessimistic outlook might look at £1.5b as providing a realistic return on the investment, an optimist might look at £2b and think that was a good price. In reality I suspect, if timescales go to plan before the planning decision, the airport will go for somewhere between the two.

[Expressflight]

Set 1013

I believe most of the diversions arrived at SEN after the LCY curfew so it was mainly a case of receiving those flights which had been delayed by the Thames Radar problem.