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Ryanair - 3

Old 8th Oct 2006, 17:34
  #201 (permalink)  
A4

Ut Sementem Feeceris
 
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No it's definately true. And when MyTravel wins its case going through the European courts regarding the failed takeover of FCA -

MYTwill have control of Ryanair too.

A4

Sorry - couldn't resist
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Old 8th Oct 2006, 20:18
  #202 (permalink)  
 
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It is not going to happen.Ryanair will never get control of Aer Lingus.Dream on dreamers!
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Old 8th Oct 2006, 20:45
  #203 (permalink)  
 
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RYR are looking for a cost cutting way to "op" long haul routes at low cost prices using a sister company, buy buying an Airline with a/c that could "op" the routes seems a good way of going about it.
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Old 8th Oct 2006, 20:50
  #204 (permalink)  
 
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Ryanair will never get control of Aer Lingus.
I wonder if there is a master plan that will see him(Ryanair) walking away with 50 million or so and a big smile on his face .........

he can be very mischievous as we all know

It wouldn't suprise me ....
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Old 8th Oct 2006, 21:55
  #205 (permalink)  
 
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I for one, still can't figure out why FR have launched this bid. I'm aware of all the subtle scenarios but it just doesn't fit.

They say all actions are caused by Fear, Need, Greed or Aspiration.

Take your pick.
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Old 8th Oct 2006, 23:55
  #206 (permalink)  
 
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madrid base

its true that they are opening a base in madrid... opening 1st of november. dont know how ppl will manage to get there though.
and its still is not announced on the page
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Old 9th Oct 2006, 01:52
  #207 (permalink)  
 
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A very interesting week ahead ...

Interesting article in today's IT; basically, the EI employees/ESOT are looking to use their existing shares as security to buy enough further shares to stop FR.

More interesting and perhaps more sinister is that fact that US and UK aviation interests are looking at the situation with increasing concern, amid suggestions that they too may want to buy shares; they do not like the idea of a low cost carrier, particularly FR, moving onto t/a routes.

(The one point that comes to mind there is that, with the Irish govt seeking EU approval to finalise an Irish/US bilateral which bypasses all the delays on the wider EU/US open skies issue, might this be a front to allow obstructionists to make mischief? After all, if you want to stop Irish carriers competing, stop them from increasing access ...)

What is interesting out of all of this is that of all the parties wanting to buy (shares in) Aer Lingus, only FR has advanced a vision for the airline and its future; Aer Lingus employees (perhaps understandably, in fairness) want to stop MO'L/FR at all costs and US/UK carriers also want to, for their reasons - which have absolutely nothing to do with the best interests of Aer Lingus.

I suspect that if FR goes ahead and takes control of EI, the 12-14 acft EI has been talking about will be out the window; I suspect MO'L will be looking at a much larger number; he will use the fact that Irish carriers will soon be able to operate to the domestic terminals at US airports, benefiting from US pre-clearance at DUB/SNN. All of a sudden, only 50 years late - thanks to backward government thinking, Ireland is about to become a major player in transatlantic aviation. And faced with that, I can't help suspecting that Bertie is probably trying to cut a deal with BA, to buy shares in Aer Lingus, probably throwing in a few EI slots at LHR, just to stop MO'L - and to hell with the prospect of long haul development out of Ireland. All that matters is the next election, after all ...
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Old 9th Oct 2006, 05:18
  #208 (permalink)  
 
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Askeroid - Those pre-clearance checks for US customs and immigration are as you say very advantageous to any operator flying out of DUB or SNN. Opens up all the secondary airports in the US given that pax can simply arrive as if on a domestic flight. Ireland is the only country in Europe with this facility. Of course, it also saves the airlines from bearing the cost of shipping back pax who are denied entry into the US once they land.
SNN and DUB would serve as ideal feeder points for a FR run service across the Atlantic. Of course, the ugly sister in all this will be ORK.
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Old 9th Oct 2006, 06:12
  #209 (permalink)  
 
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Cork may not get the pre-clearance facility, but in a liberalised bilateral environment, there's no reason why it shouldn't get direct flights. As to not being able to fly to all airports, as will be possible from DUB/SNN, that may be academic, because the airlines likely to fly to ORK will be US 757 operators, such as Delta (which will soon be acquiring winglet equipped 757s), CO and AA, although I think CO would be most likely.

Considering FR's mode of operation, to secondary airfields with fewer facilities, this development would no doubt be of immense interest and you can see how the confluence of all of these different factors is freaking the hell out of US carriers and BA/VS. That's why I am very anxious that the govt steps back and tries to look at our interest, as a country; there is a very great danger that in a trying to silence the hysteria of the unions, they may end up cutting off our noses to spite Ryanair.

Bear in mind also that if the likes of BA buy into EI, then wouldn't that undermine the regulatory basis for EI transatlantic flight, because it would create questions about its ownership - not trying to be paranoid, but that would suit some of those who oppose increased transatlantic access ex-Ireland. And if the govt were instrumental in trying to arrange this (even offering to trade LHR slots), wouldn't that be something - particularly after questioning the Irishness of Ryanair!

Last edited by akerosid; 9th Oct 2006 at 06:16. Reason: Additional point re-BA
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Old 9th Oct 2006, 10:30
  #210 (permalink)  
 
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Holes in the Italian schedules

@ cesare.caldi,

The 'free' BGY rotation might not necessarily be used to fly new routes. Remember that BGY - LBC and BGY - PIK were reduced over the Winter. Both seem to run successfully on a daily basis over the Summer.

FR reduced the frequencies of more than 40 routes over the Winter (many of these from STN). I would have thought it likely that most of these will go back to daily for the Summer. In order to achieve this, FR will probably need to use aircraft at continental bases (e.g. BGY, PSA, CIA, GRO etc) to fly STN rotations in order to free up aircraft at STN.

There are a couple of other holes in the Italian schedules that you might be interested in:
  • EMA - CIA will be flown by an EMA based aircraft from the end of February onwards. I would be suprised if CIA - SDR and CIA - NRN didn't switch back to daily.
  • The FR investor day presentation confirmed that PSA will receive a 4th aircraft this Spring. Again, PSA - DUB, PSA - LPL, PSA - LBC and PSA - PIK all ought to be ramped up for the summer.
Note that my predictions are usually spectacularly wrong!
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Old 9th Oct 2006, 10:35
  #211 (permalink)  
 
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I assume pre-clearance can be withdrawn by the US authorities whenever they feel it doesn't suit their needs? Or introduced elsewhere for that matter?
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Old 9th Oct 2006, 11:12
  #212 (permalink)  

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On the what percentage do you need question,

If you get 50% + 1 share, you can call an EGM or at the AGM vote for who you want on board and put up your own candidates for the board, this gives you almost total control of the company. The rights of minority investors are respected as the company still is listed on the Stock Exchange.

At a level of 75% of the shares the bidder can take the company private

At a level of 90% of the outstanding shares When the bid is announced the remaining shares can be compulsorily purchased. In the case of Aer Lingus Ryanair had 16% when the bid was announced so they need 90% of 84%, this is an aditional 75.6% meaning if or when Ryanair hits 91.6% they can force the remaining shareholders to sell.

These are the UK rules, the Irish ones may be slightly different (Ihave seen reference to only 80% being required.

The other way is by a scheme of arrangement, and it could work like this, Ryaniar get 50.1% then appoint whoever they want to the board. The Board (Ryanair chaps now) then reccomends a scheme to shareholders, and if 75% agree company is taken over and delisted. More Takeovers are being done this way now, it is more difficult if it is a hostile takeover(as this is), but a possible way to get full ownership of a company with only 75% of the shareholders on side.

My personal view, Ryanair got the 16% by having financial institutions buy shares on it's behalf when the company was floated, the extra few percent were mopped up from a couple of buyers who are out for a quick buck, the major institutional investors think there is more value in the company and Ryanair will increase it's offer this week or next and Ryan will end up with around the 40% mark fairly soon, this gives them effective control of the company, as another 10% will vote with whatever Ryanair wants, but don't want to sell to them, they want to ride the gravy train of Aer Lingus with MOL in charge.
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Old 9th Oct 2006, 12:27
  #213 (permalink)  
 
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Currently it's only possible to clear US immigration at DUB/SNN, and not US customs. Customs still needs to be cleared at the point of entry in the US, thus ruling out non international airports.
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Old 9th Oct 2006, 15:00
  #214 (permalink)  
 
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Flights between Oporto and Lisbon annoys North of Portugal

In Portuguese periodical JN can read an article about the aerial linkings between Lisbon and Oporto. In it David Gering, director of marketing and sales of the Ryanair for Benelux and Portugal, is citing concerning the internal flights of the Ryanair. I think that it is very dificult because the routes between national airports, enclosed islands, had been attributed by public competition. In the beginning of September, the Ryanair, advanced that, inside of three years, it will be able to equate the hypothesis to carry through internal voos in Portugal.
You can see the article in JN site, but in Portuguese language. Sorry.
http://jn.sapo.pt/2006/10/08/tema_de...rrita_nor.html
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Old 9th Oct 2006, 15:34
  #215 (permalink)  
 
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Madrid will be announced tomorrow!!!
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Old 9th Oct 2006, 16:58
  #216 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by FOS-06 View Post
Madrid will be announced tomorrow!!!
Indeed I was going to post the same, seems a long time coming!
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Old 9th Oct 2006, 17:22
  #217 (permalink)  
 
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I assume they'll link the usuals...HHN, CIA, BGY but does anyone have any other ideas. I wouldnt be surprised to see a SNN, CRL and FUE & TRN. Which London airport will they go to if any and will they brave the MAD-GRO route?
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Old 9th Oct 2006, 17:26
  #218 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by FOS-06 View Post
Madrid will be announced tomorrow!!!
WOW!!!

How many plane will be based at MAD?

Any rumors about new routes from MAD?

Maybe Canary Islands and Morocco too?
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Old 9th Oct 2006, 17:29
  #219 (permalink)  
 
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MAD to NCL !
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Old 9th Oct 2006, 17:32
  #220 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by anna_list View Post
@ cesare.caldi,

The 'free' BGY rotation might not necessarily be used to fly new routes. Remember that BGY - LBC and BGY - PIK were reduced over the Winter. Both seem to run successfully on a daily basis over the Summer.
BGY-PIK and BGY-LBC are already on sale for summer 2007 season both 4x week.
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