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Guernsey

Old 20th Jul 2018, 18:31
  #341 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by kcockayne View Post

I tend to think that this decision will have absolutely no, or very little, effect on Guernsey air services. As far as I know, there is not a queue of airlines waiting to operate to Guernsey , & being prevented from doing so by anti-competitive legislation. It might have been a different story if the “open skies policy” had included Gatwick. But, there was absolutely no chance of that happening as it would have had a seriously detrimental impact on Guernsey’s “national”, & States’ owned airline, Aurigny - being their one & only route which makes a profit ( I think). However, I could be wrong. What do other people think ?
As there are hardly any airlines left that could serve with turboprops or small regional jets, I suppose very little will happen.
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Old 20th Jul 2018, 19:03
  #342 (permalink)  
 
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To be fair it’s not just that it’s the most ‘profitable’ route, it would harm the island if it ended up being undermined by someone coming in with lower fares but an erratic schedule, or get dropped altogether. Look at IOM as an example. Should anything happen good luck getting peak slots elsewhere in London, especially somewhere with some decent connections.
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Old 20th Jul 2018, 19:07
  #343 (permalink)  
 
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SOUR GRAPES:
As a result of the 'Open Skies' decision made by the States of Guernsey yesterday, Blue Islands have already announced a cut in their schedules with effect from the winter timetable. As for moving the aircraft to more profitable routes can DC tell us what these routes are? This is a joke, as all it means is that the aircraft will spend longer on the ground - I cannot see that JER to BRS/LCY are big moneyspinners & as they have act Flybe on the JER-SOU route too they are as in such competition with them & DC doesn't like competition. A few months ago Blue were after operating GCI-BRS against Aurigny but were refused a licence, now we have Open Skies what's now stopping them from doing?

It seems to me that the threat of competition (which will never arrive) is a good excuse to start winding down the airline - DC's ego (and wallet) have until now always kept it afloat, now he has the excuse he needs... Blue have never been that popular with the local community, but sadly there is no other choice if you want to fly to SOU or JER.

https://gsy.bailiwickexpress.com/gsy.../#.W1Ie3dJKjIV

Last edited by Jerbourg; 21st Jul 2018 at 09:02.
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Old 20th Jul 2018, 19:53
  #344 (permalink)  
 
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A lot of what you say is correct, Jerbourg. Blue Island seems to be about as profitable as AUR ie not ! This certainly gives Derek an excuse to wind it up ; or downsize it; & save himself an awful lot of money ! I agree, what “more profitable routes” can Blue Island possibly find ? Jersey to London City & Bristol are certainly not money spinners - & that is the point of why “Open Skies” is likely to fail.
Airport Planner 1 makes a good, & true, point. In fact, this was the justification for the States to buy AUR in the first place ie protect the Gatwick slots.
virginblue makes an essential point when he says that there is a very distinct lack of airlines with the right equipment for Guernsey routes. But, this is why there is the push to extend the runway from some quarters in Guernsey. But, these people ignore the fact that what determines the amount of destinations & frequency of operations from Guernsey is the DEMAND. Guernsey people (of which I am one) look at Jersey & Easyjet. They think that all that they have to do to get the same number of destinations & cheap fares is get EZY or RYR in (by extending the runway for them). They ignore the fact that there is not the level of demand to attract these airlines.
Guernsey’s population is around 65,000 & falling; Jersey’s is 105,000 & rising. Jersey’s holiday industry is larger than Guernsey’s. These factors mitigate against Guernsey getting the same level of services & destinations as Jersey. I understand the dream of Guernsey residents but, it ain’t gonna happen. You could expand the tourism industry in Guernsey to stimulate demand for air services, but there are not the hotel bed space to counter for a big increase in visitors.
All in all, it is time for Guernsey folk to face reality.
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Old 20th Jul 2018, 20:08
  #345 (permalink)  
 
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I think Guernsey can take a lot of example from IOM, I.e. learnings, maybe roads not to go down. Small island communities need connectivity, commuter type ac are best placed.. extending the runway may not the long term greater good of the island. In my opinion..
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Old 20th Jul 2018, 21:38
  #346 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by kcockayne View Post
A lot of what you say is correct, Jerbourg. Blue Island seems to be about as profitable as AUR ie not ! This certainly gives Derek an excuse to wind it up ; or downsize it; & save himself an awful lot of money ! I agree, what “more profitable routes” can Blue Island possibly find ? Jersey to London City & Bristol are certainly not money spinners - & that is the point of why “Open Skies” is likely to fail.
Airport Planner 1 makes a good, & true, point. In fact, this was the justification for the States to buy AUR in the first place ie protect the Gatwick slots.
virginblue makes an essential point when he says that there is a very distinct lack of airlines with the right equipment for Guernsey routes. But, this is why there is the push to extend the runway from some quarters in Guernsey. But, these people ignore the fact that what determines the amount of destinations & frequency of operations from Guernsey is the DEMAND. Guernsey people (of which I am one) look at Jersey & Easyjet. They think that all that they have to do to get the same number of destinations & cheap fares is get EZY or RYR in (by extending the runway for them). They ignore the fact that there is not the level of demand to attract these airlines.
Guernsey’s population is around 65,000 & falling; Jersey’s is 105,000 & rising. Jersey’s holiday industry is larger than Guernsey’s. These factors mitigate against Guernsey getting the same level of services & destinations as Jersey. I understand the dream of Guernsey residents but, it ain’t gonna happen. You could expand the tourism industry in Guernsey to stimulate demand for air services, but there are not the hotel bed space to counter for a big increase in visitors.
All in all, it is time for Guernsey folk to face reality.
Good points. It would surely be more advantageous for Guernsey to benefit from Jersey's longer runway and better services and see it as a hub. For that to happen there needs to be a decent inter-island service so that folks can travel with ease between the islands. The States of Guernsey should encourage this by allowing Aurigny to take up the route again and cut their charges to the benefit of the passenger whose connection via Jersey should be highly subsidised.
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Old 20th Jul 2018, 22:17
  #347 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Gurnard View Post
Good points. It would surely be more advantageous for Guernsey to benefit from Jersey's longer runway and better services and see it as a hub. For that to happen there needs to be a decent inter-island service so that folks can travel with ease between the islands. The States of Guernsey should encourage this by allowing Aurigny to take up the route again and cut their charges to the benefit of the passenger whose connection via Jersey should be highly subsidised.
I entirely agree with you, Gurnard. But, you have to admit that it is galling for Guernsey people to have to travel via Jersey. In any case, this is not very attractive, as it adds quite a time to the overall journey time. What is the answer to Guernsey residents’ demand for the travel opportunities which they see available to Jersey residents ? I don’t think that there is one !
in any event, extending Guernsey’s runway would be a massive waste of money &, if it did attract EZY or RYR, it would mean the end of AUR (& the certainty of retaining the Gatwick service); & the frequency of this service would be reduced , & the future of it open to question.
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Old 23rd Jul 2018, 14:37
  #348 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by kcockayne View Post

I entirely agree with you, Gurnard. But, you have to admit that it is galling for Guernsey people to have to travel via Jersey. In any case, this is not very attractive, as it adds quite a time to the overall journey time. What is the answer to Guernsey residents’ demand for the travel opportunities which they see available to Jersey residents ? I don’t think that there is one !
in any event, extending Guernsey’s runway would be a massive waste of money &, if it did attract EZY or RYR, it would mean the end of AUR (& the certainty of retaining the Gatwick service); & the frequency of this service would be reduced , & the future of it open to question.
All your points are true. Yes - a massive waste of money to extend Guernsey's runway, not to mention a loss of some precious space. What would it achieve? Frequent EZY or RYR flights to some popular destination? Highly unlikely. Services to Guernsey are not likely to improve. Already DC has made it clear that BlueIslands will be cutting services over the winter. Galling for Guernsey folk to have to hop over to Jersey to catch a flight - yes - but it might be the lesser of two (or more) evils. A States of Guernsey sponsored regular service between the islands could save time, and extra pax to fill aircraft in and out of Jersey would be advantageous to the carriers serving Jersey. Sea passengers have been prepared to tolerate stopping off in Guernsey as the ferry makes its way from Jersey to the UK for yonks. With time air travellers might be prepared to route via Jersey if the schedule and fares are reasonable.
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Old 23rd Jul 2018, 14:46
  #349 (permalink)  
 
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in which case would it make more sense to operate a GCI-JER air shuttle to connect there or is JER capacity at its limits?
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Old 23rd Jul 2018, 15:09
  #350 (permalink)  
 
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I'm not that familiar with the CI air transport scene, but a fairly regular holiday visitor to the islands.

Last time I was at GCI I was surprised by the small number of inter-island flights. Did Aurigny not used to have a more-or-less hourly shuttle, or is that my memory playing tricks?
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Old 23rd Jul 2018, 15:32
  #351 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by jensdad View Post
I'm not that familiar with the CI air transport scene, but a fairly regular holiday visitor to the islands.

Last time I was at GCI I was surprised by the small number of inter-island flights. Did Aurigny not used to have a more-or-less hourly shuttle, or is that my memory playing tricks?
I lived in Guernsey from 1980 to 1986, Aurigny used to operate an hourly and sometimes half hourly schedule between the islands using Islanders Trilanders and Twin Otters.
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Old 23rd Jul 2018, 17:21
  #352 (permalink)  
 
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Be careful what you wish for, Open Skies on the Isle of Man has led to a huge reduction in connectivity and direct air services and generally poor provision.

The IOM is well connected to Manchester (because that suits FlyBE) and Liverpool for the hospital route because it is government backed, but everything else (apart from Dublin) is poor.

Belfast twice a week, Gatwick often only once a day, Scotland twice a week, Bristol twice a week.

It's a royal pain in you live on the Island and stifles economic growth as people just can't get on and off the island and you can't attract a skill set here as they can't get home to visit family etc ..

Open skies is perfect if you're Heathrow or Gatwick, it's a disaster for small island communities ...
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Old 23rd Jul 2018, 18:26
  #353 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by rog747 View Post
in which case would it make more sense to operate a GCI-JER air shuttle to connect there or is JER capacity at its limits?
Jersey is way below it’s limits. In the 70s & 80s it handled up to 500+ movements each weekend day - most of them commercial. Nowadays you are lucky if you get to 200 ! In those times, AUR used to operate up to 50 flights each way between the two islands. How times have changed. Now, the inter island service is around 5 flights per day with ATR & DH8-400. Inter island pax levels have fallen dramatically. I don’t think that having to travel via Jersey would have much appeal to Guernsey people. They’d much rather moan about their lot, instead !
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Old 23rd Jul 2018, 18:33
  #354 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by kcockayne View Post

Jersey is way below it’s limits. In the 70s & 80s it handled up to 500+ movements each weekend day - most of them commercial. Nowadays you are lucky if you get to 200 ! In those times, AUR used to operate up to 50 flights each way between the two islands. How times have changed. Now, the inter island service is around 5 flights per day with ATR & DH8-400. Inter island pax levels have fallen dramatically. I don’t think that having to travel via Jersey would have much appeal to Guernsey people. They’d much rather moan about their lot, instead !
thanks - well I should remember I worked for BMA and we sent vast squadrons of most of our viscounts and DC9's to JER every Sat & Sun weekend lol
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Old 23rd Jul 2018, 23:33
  #355 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by rog747 View Post
thanks - well I should remember I worked for BMA and we sent vast squadrons of most of our viscounts and DC9's to JER every Sat & Sun weekend lol
How well I remember ! Happy days, sadly long gone. Do you remember Malcolm Cumming (VC8, DC9, FK27 & B707) ?
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Old 24th Jul 2018, 10:18
  #356 (permalink)  
 
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So what exactly is Blue Islands up to? Reading between the lines, it sounds like cutting mid-day departures to JER and SOU during the winter and - depending on competition on those routes showing up - also during the summer. As the only airlines that sould realistically operate GCI-SOU seasonally are Flybe and Aurigny which is not a very likely scenario, we are looking at winter season cut-backs. If there is no demand for mid-day flights to SOU and JER in the winter, there will probably be not more demand for flights to any other destination anyway. The only remotely possible option could be a "fare-cracker" of IOM-fame style flight to a London airport - but with LGW still subject to licencing, no slots at LHR, no suitable aircraft for LCY (too expensive anyway) and Aurigny already on STN, LTN would be the only logical gateway for such an endeavour. So in the end, the aircraft will just sit idle on the ground at GCI unless they would do two morning flights to SOU and find woork for the aircraft from there (in conjunction with Flybe) before it returns to GCI in the evening.
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Old 24th Jul 2018, 10:40
  #357 (permalink)  
 
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[QUOTE=virginblue;10204577]So what exactly is Blue Islands up to? Reading between the lines, it sounds like cutting mid-day departures to JER and SOU during the winter and - depending on competition on those routes showing up - also during the summer. As the only airlines that sould realistically operate GCI-SOU seasonally are Flybe and Aurigny which is not a very likely scenario, we are looking at winter season cut-backs. If there is no demand for mid-day flights to SOU and JER in the winter, there will probably be not more demand for flights to any other destination anyway. The only remotely possible option could be a "fare-cracker" of IOM-fame style flight to a London airport - but with LGW still subject to licencing, no slots at LHR, no suitable aircraft for LCY (too expensive anyway) and Aurigny already on STN, LTN would be the only logical gateway for such an endeavour. So in the end, the aircraft will just sit idle on the ground at GCI unless they would do two morning flights to SOU and find woork for the aircraft from there (in conjunction with Flybe) before it returns to GCI in the

London Southend is proving very popular with pax and is attracting new carriers. It has a brand new terminal and a dedicated train station just two minutes walk from the terminal with up to eight trains an hour to London. Flybe/Stobart have based aircraft so it could offer another London option.
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Old 24th Jul 2018, 14:17
  #358 (permalink)  
 
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Interesting suggestion...with the introduction of FR onto SEN-DUB it’s actually probable that Stobart will have an E195 with nothing to do...
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Old 24th Jul 2018, 17:25
  #359 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by AirportPlanner1 View Post
Interesting suggestion...with the introduction of FR onto SEN-DUB it’s actually probable that Stobart will have an E195 with nothing to do...
Where are they going to find 125ish PAX to fill the flight? Capacity exists at Stansted and Gatwick..............remember they couldn’t make LCY pay and the route was dropped. GCI only has a population of 60k, and there already are 600 ish seats a day from London to the island.
CAA Stats show approx 32k pax to and from the island and London in May.




Last edited by cobopete; 24th Jul 2018 at 18:49. Reason: addition of CAA data.
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Old 24th Jul 2018, 22:51
  #360 (permalink)  
 
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It’s pie in the sky, but there is an opportunity there. If they overnighted in GCI, which is something they do, they could have a decent market providing a cheaper option to GR to London. Plus potentially stimulate some additional traffic. And they do some connections.
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