ISLE OF MAN
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I predict Flybe will operate flights to Belfast, and possibly Glasgow (Loganair also a possibility), though I'd say Stobart Air could be the operator.
Blackpool and Gloucestershire will most likely be scrapped for good, though clearly there is quite impressive demand for both routes.
Eastern Airways could possibly take over Newcastle, but I suspect it will be scrapped.
The 2016 passenger figures for these routes are as follows;
Belfast City: 23,424 (up 17%)
Blackpool: 15,750 (up 52%)
Glasgow: 7,952 (down 20%)
Gloucestershire: 11,824 (up 1%)
Newcastle: 4,191 (down 5%)
Blackpool and Gloucestershire will most likely be scrapped for good, though clearly there is quite impressive demand for both routes.
Eastern Airways could possibly take over Newcastle, but I suspect it will be scrapped.
The 2016 passenger figures for these routes are as follows;
Belfast City: 23,424 (up 17%)
Blackpool: 15,750 (up 52%)
Glasgow: 7,952 (down 20%)
Gloucestershire: 11,824 (up 1%)
Newcastle: 4,191 (down 5%)
Join Date: Mar 2003
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How could Stobart seriously operate to GLA? The route is a 20 seater route, Euromanx operated it with the Beech 1900, IIRC, and Vanair with the Let. It has, based on the CAA figures, 20 pax/day. So I don't see how a 74seater on that route would make any sense. The same applies to BHD. A single daily flight on a Q400 would lead to more capapcity than Vanair offered with four daily flights - and demand would be much weaker because of the loss of a same-day return option. Based on the above figures, Flybe could not fill a Q400 on a single daily flight. If they were to operate twice-daily to offer a same-day return, they would operate with a 40 per cent load factor.
I think we need to be realistic. It would be a great success of Loganair could be lured to the rock, but I doubt it. The most realisitic option is somethnig like AIS Airlines with Jetstream 31s, but the days of cheap Citywing fares will be over and with higher fares, even a 19seater operation will struggle.
I think we need to be realistic. It would be a great success of Loganair could be lured to the rock, but I doubt it. The most realisitic option is somethnig like AIS Airlines with Jetstream 31s, but the days of cheap Citywing fares will be over and with higher fares, even a 19seater operation will struggle.
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I wonder if EZY could make a go of GLA and BFS twice a week as they do currently to BRS.
I doubt that the market is there for a viable frequent direct service to a lot of the destinations just lost
I doubt that the market is there for a viable frequent direct service to a lot of the destinations just lost
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Eastern didn't wait long; daily flights to BHD and NCL. The flight prices are extortionate though - from £99 one way.
http://www.iomtoday.co.im/article.cf...earchyear=2017
http://www.iomtoday.co.im/article.cf...earchyear=2017
On what basis is £99 extortionate? Aren't airlines allowed to make money? For comparison the train fare to Liverpool from Newcastle is £40 next Sunday and takes over three hours
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Well, you cannot have everything. Either it is a UK regional airline with "proper" aircraft and 99 GBP fares or a Czech airline operating on behalf of a ticket seller with little LETs and 19,99 GBP fares. It is wholly unrealistic to assume that a UK airline would show up and continue operating at the same frequency and for the same fares as Vanair.
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My point is that Eastern have priced themselves out of the market - return flights BHD-IOM with Flybe via Manchester cost £130. Imagine what Flybe would charge if the flights were direct - easily under £100 return. Even with Citywing in operation I always found it cheaper to use Flybe by a substantial amount.
Your comparison is a contradiction to the point you're trying to make - it costs £40 to travel 150 miles, but then £99 to travel 70 miles. Therefore it would be much cheaper to get the train from Newcastle to Liverpool, and then fly to the Isle of Man than to fly direct.
Your comparison is a contradiction to the point you're trying to make - it costs £40 to travel 150 miles, but then £99 to travel 70 miles. Therefore it would be much cheaper to get the train from Newcastle to Liverpool, and then fly to the Isle of Man than to fly direct.
Your assuming that cost is the only criteria is selecting how you travel. Isn't the advantage of aircraft that they are quicker? Hence my mention of over three hours. Having done MAN to Newcastle today by train it's not my idea of a good time.
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Yes, some people will pay those fares because they want the shortest journey time possible, but then again frequency is not on Eastern's side. People want choice and flexibility: this is for IOM-BHD -
Eastern - £198 return - 1 daily flight (0hr40)
Flybe - £130 return - 6 daily flights (2hr30)
Clearly the only thing that Eastern have on their side is the flight time, and not everyone cares how long it takes to get from A to B, especially if it means that they can return on the same day as departure, saving the need to pay for a hotel room; or can arrive at their destination on time for that 10am meeting.
I would hope that Eastern are testing the waters and are planning on introducing a second daily flight to both destinations, and consequently fares may fall, but as it stands, Eastern are pricing themselves out of the leisure market and the budget business market.
Eastern - £198 return - 1 daily flight (0hr40)
Flybe - £130 return - 6 daily flights (2hr30)
Clearly the only thing that Eastern have on their side is the flight time, and not everyone cares how long it takes to get from A to B, especially if it means that they can return on the same day as departure, saving the need to pay for a hotel room; or can arrive at their destination on time for that 10am meeting.
I would hope that Eastern are testing the waters and are planning on introducing a second daily flight to both destinations, and consequently fares may fall, but as it stands, Eastern are pricing themselves out of the leisure market and the budget business market.
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£99... that's the end of those routes, then.
Separately, Eastern are said to start flying these routes tomorrow, clearly they were busy over the weekend preparing these, but no content in GDS or on their website. I'd be surprised if these services actually commence tomorrow...
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My point is that Eastern have priced themselves out of the market - return flights BHD-IOM with Flybe via Manchester cost £130. Imagine what Flybe would charge if the flights were direct - easily under £100 return. Even with Citywing in operation I always found it cheaper to use Flybe by a substantial amount.
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Also notice that crucial full service airline benefit of ’We will offer complimentary hot and cold drinks, including a bar service on board our flights and provide a daily link to both Newcastle and Belfast City.’ - Vanair didn't offer that, hence the low air taxi fees as a no-frills tiny airline, nor does Flybe... One also would assume the seating will be far more comfortable on the J41's 
So in my opinion, you're getting value for money on these new flights! I'm going to be with the minority optimistic crowd on here and wish Eastern the best of luck!
So in my opinion, you're getting value for money on these new flights! I'm going to be with the minority optimistic crowd on here and wish Eastern the best of luck!
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One also would assume the seating will be far more comfortable on the J41's
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Compared to being squashed into a Let? Haha!
Cabin Width Let 410: 196cm
Cabin Width Jetstream 31/41: 185cm
So: Haha
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On the subject of fares:
Manx2/Citywing had been going 10+ years since 2006 with a fare structure that has already been quoted.
But, when things went pear-shaped on 24 February within two weeks Citywing had already thrown in the towel appointing a liquidator to protect their creditors.
What that demonstrates is that in 10+ years of operation they didn't make any money, any cash reserves they had were spent within that two week period and it has yet to be established if they spent money from advance ticket sales.
There are plenty of puddle jumper sized airliners out there but what is clear is that Citywing's operation was on a tight budget and these aircraft operators won't work for the money Citywing have been offering, FLM did so well they went bankrupt, enough said about the tin pot Spanish Metroliner operator that couldn't even afford to train it's crews, Links Air was another one who had their ticket pulled by the CAA and as for Van Air ...
Were there operators out there willing to operate for fares of GBP19.99 then Citywing would still be trading, they'd have such operator(s) in there now, that demonstrates that all 'cheap and nasty' operator options have been exhausted, the Manx2/Citywing business model wasn't a viable one and for another operator to take on some, or all, of these routes then fares need to increase.
Manx2/Citywing had been going 10+ years since 2006 with a fare structure that has already been quoted.
But, when things went pear-shaped on 24 February within two weeks Citywing had already thrown in the towel appointing a liquidator to protect their creditors.
What that demonstrates is that in 10+ years of operation they didn't make any money, any cash reserves they had were spent within that two week period and it has yet to be established if they spent money from advance ticket sales.
There are plenty of puddle jumper sized airliners out there but what is clear is that Citywing's operation was on a tight budget and these aircraft operators won't work for the money Citywing have been offering, FLM did so well they went bankrupt, enough said about the tin pot Spanish Metroliner operator that couldn't even afford to train it's crews, Links Air was another one who had their ticket pulled by the CAA and as for Van Air ...
Were there operators out there willing to operate for fares of GBP19.99 then Citywing would still be trading, they'd have such operator(s) in there now, that demonstrates that all 'cheap and nasty' operator options have been exhausted, the Manx2/Citywing business model wasn't a viable one and for another operator to take on some, or all, of these routes then fares need to increase.
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’We will offer complimentary hot and cold drinks, including a bar service on board our flights and provide a daily link to both Newcastle and Belfast City.’
What is it, 40 minutes blocks IOM/BHD, that'll be about 20 minutes flight time, by the time they reach cruising altitude it'll be time to come back down again, they might get 5 minutes to serve these hot drinks, offer a bar service, come round with a bin liner, before up with the service trays and on with the seat belts.
My local airline here, it's a 60 minute block time, we're in the cruise for all of about 15 minutes, I regularly land at destination whilst still drinking my one beer and I didn't even have a hot drink!