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Old 14th Mar 2017, 06:29
  #3001 (permalink)  
 
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Manx2 2.0 routes will hopefully all be covered by real airlines before they have a chance to come back from the dead. Again.

BHD and NCL offered by T3. NCL at much increased frequencies.
CWL-VLY offered by T3.

GLA could be done by Loganair Twotters if they have any gaps in their schedule.

BLK is gone but it was looking that way after BB's plans for the airport. LPL is the closest alternative.

LPL is covered by easyJet and flyBE.

BHX is covered by flyBE.

MAN is covered by flyBE.

LCY is covered by T3/BA.

DUB is covered by EIr.

LGW and LTN is covered by easyJet.

For such a small place and with a relatively small tourist industry I'd say it's fairly well connected.

I fail to see what other routes would be sustainable without mass subsidies. Will the Manx taxpayers be happy to bankroll an airline or is it a small price to pay to see the Manx flag flying again? It works for Aurigny so why not have a state run airline like they do? Perhaps the B1900D could work for them as TWIN JET of France seem to make them work on short, niche routes throughout France.

"The island suffers a lot from low visibility at all times of the year, but at least if aircraft are based there, they can usually get off the island and by the time they are due to return, the visibility would usually have improved."

A valid point indeed. However look to Aurigny. For several nights when the fog sets in all of their arrivals have to divert to English airports. This means nobody can get home at the end of a day's business. It's not uncommon for them to hold for an hour, the divert. So nobody gets in at night. And nobody gets out in the morning as all of the craft are out of position and crews likely out of hours. Having a based airline is not without its challenges.A non based airline can delay a morning arrival pending the fog to lift. A based airline has to wait for the crew to get minimum rest then operate back in, then continue the rest of the day's flying program with significant delays to all flights.

Last edited by HeartyMeatballs; 14th Mar 2017 at 06:44.
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Old 14th Mar 2017, 09:31
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Originally Posted by 01475
The lessons I take from this are:

- There are a number of routes and airports in the British Isles that could be served by a respectable operator of small planes
Exactly and that is why reproduction of, otherwise soon to become extinct, such types as DHC6, Do228 and Do328 have recommenced.
Have you read his complete post? 01475 has eloquently explained why this is not the case and wil not happen.

The routes were served in that unusual set-up for some reason. The outcry here about the fares Eastern dares to charge is testament to the fact that punters are no longer willing to pay fares for regional air services that are needed to make them viable for a respectable operator.

BHD and NCL offered by T3. NCL at much increased frequencies.
CWL-VLY offered by T3.
Served by Eastern at fares that - and I quote Joe Public/PPRUNE - amount to extortion. Plus both routes served with the wrong frequency/capacity. Too much NCL and too little BHD. NCL was always the least important route in Citywing's network and T3 is now effectively doubling capacity by operating a 29seater at a higher frequency.

GLA could be done by Loganair Twotters if they have any gaps in their schedule.
Is Loganair at liberty to operate the government-owned Twin Otters for commercial, non-PSO flying? You will be aware of the fact that the Twin Otters no longer have an airline livery, but fly the Saltire.

As for the rest of Citywing's destinations, BLK and GLO are probably dispensable. easyjet could add one or two frequencies to BRS to make it 3/7 or 4/7. Or bmi regional could o a quick run during the day when their ERJ sit idle on the ground at BRS. My prediction is that NCL will be gone soon and that means also BHD by T3. BHD is the real challenge as it is the only Citywing destination that probably is a "must" for IOM.

Last edited by virginblue; 14th Mar 2017 at 10:49.
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Old 14th Mar 2017, 09:41
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IOM to BHD and NCL can be had for £150ish. This is similar to what people in the Scottish islands pay with Loganair. Domestic Wales flights are selling for £50 return. There's nothing to stop the Manx government subsiding IOM flights is there? It would be cheaper than setting up an airline that is not even needed.

I have no idea as to the setup of Loganair. They are the only airline with an aircraft based in Glasgow which could serve the route. It could be the only chance.
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Old 14th Mar 2017, 09:55
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Government have other priorities for the money

Teacher shortage
Nurse and GP shortages

to name but a few.

Citywing creditors meeting 24 March.

Thousands waiting for news about refunds after Citywing's collapse | News | Isle of Man
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Old 14th Mar 2017, 10:31
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Such an operator cannot exist on the back of one base; not an isolated island with a population of 100k;
How does Aurigny work then? (Guernsey population +/- 63,000)

I accept that the IOM tourist business has declined, but this can be reversed. It doesn't have the same balmy climate as the Channel Islands, but in the same way as the Orkneys, Shetlands and Hebrides it can be attractive to outdoorsy people.

I also understand that there will be occasions when the (based) aircraft cannot return because of bad weather, but that can be the case anywhere and people (passengers) who live on islands understand this.

FlyBe is known on the Island as flymaybe, and not just because of the effects of the weather. EZY come and go on routes throughout their network to suit themselves, which is their right and they could (and would) drop the IOM routes tomorrow if something more favourable came along.
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Old 14th Mar 2017, 11:07
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There always has been a horrible smell lingering around Citywing. The smell is now so strong that I can smell it even at this distance. I have said it before and I'll say it again, the ticket seller is exempt from ATOL because at the point of purchase they issue a ticket on a named airline that should have value regardless of what happens to the ticket seller in the future. However the ticket seller has gone into liquidation, all the airlines have suddenly vanished and 16,000 passengers are wondering who is going to refund their worthless piece of paper.
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Old 14th Mar 2017, 11:21
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Have you read his complete post? 01475 has eloquently explained why this is not the case and wil not happen.
Yes, I read, and I question who appointed 01475 as the world's leading authority on airlines of the British isles?
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Old 14th Mar 2017, 12:54
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I would say: "Mr. History" and "Mrs. Market". Both have proven him wright (and for that matter, not only as far as regional flying in the UK is concerned, but pretty much anywhere else in Europe unless tons of public money is sunk into PSO routes). While we can armchair-CEO here endlessly, reality can be seen every day on the apron of UK's airports (or worse, real estate that once was a regional airport).
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Old 14th Mar 2017, 13:35
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I like Eastern and believe they could provide the much needed services for the Isle of Man, but £408 return from Belfast during TT is a bit steep !!!
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Old 14th Mar 2017, 14:48
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GLA could be done by Loganair Twotters if they have any gaps in their schedule.

Is Loganair at liberty to operate the government-owned Twin Otters for commercial, non-PSO flying? You will be aware of the fact that the Twin Otters no longer have an airline livery, but fly the Saltire.
Loganair do still have a Twin Otter of their own, in addition to the two Saltire branded aircraft that are owned by the Scottish Government.

There is always the Do328 that sits in Dundee for most of the day between Stansted runs. No reason it couldn't position to Glasgow and operated GLA-IOM-GLA as a daily service, opposed to Citywings double daily.
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Old 14th Mar 2017, 14:56
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Such an operator cannot exist on the back of one base; not an isolated island with a population of 100k;
So how about Lyddair solely serving the Lydd/Le Touquet route?

How about ISC Skybus serving Isles of Scilly?

How about the helichopper mob queuing up to serve the PZE/ISC & Tesco routes?

Brymon, solely serving PLH & NQY, might still be going had Bill Bryce not gone for very expensive and brand new DHC7's.

People say that Air Wales might still be going had they stuck with Do228's and stayed away from ATR42's.


I'm not suggesting that an airline can survive solely serving IOM, Manx was owned by 'Airlines of Britain' that included British Midland, Loganair & London City Airways before BA bought it purely to rape it of it's LHR slots.

But there is a place there for a UK & Ireland puddle jumper airline, never mind operating A320's or B737's to compete with the big boys who will soon buy you out or put you out o0f business, Go, Buzz, BMI Baby, to name but three all tried that, who is there to compete with and/or buy out a puddle jumper operation?
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Old 14th Mar 2017, 14:58
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There is always the Do328 that sits in Dundee for most of the day between Stansted runs. No reason it couldn't position to Glasgow and operated GLA-IOM-GLA as a daily service, opposed to Citywings double daily.
There is a very good reason. People have proven on here they are unwilling to pay £99 to fly off the island (I'm not convinced how many would be genuine customers anyway). They've also complained that the schedule is wrong, aircraft is wrong, and frequencies are wrong.

If people are unwilling to pay £99 when the aircraft has no dead legs, how much do you think the price would be if the aircraft was running DND-GLA empty to operate a GLA-IOM? Closer £200 is my bet, certainly not £20 that everyone seems to unrealistically want
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Old 14th Mar 2017, 15:02
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Such an operator cannot exist on the back of one base; not an isolated island with a population of 100k;
So how about Lyddair solely serving the Lydd/Le Touquet route?

How about ISC Skybus serving Isles of Scilly?

How about the helichopper mob queuing up to serve the PZE/ISC & Tesco routes?

Brymon, solely serving PLH & NQY, might still be going had Bill Bryce not gone for very expensive and brand new DHC7's.

People say that Air Wales might still be going had they stuck with Do228's and stayed away from ATR42's.


I'm not suggesting that an airline can survive solely serving IOM, Manx was owned by 'Airlines of Britain' that included British Midland, Loganair & London City Airways before BA bought it purely to rape it of it's LHR slots.

But there is a place there for a UK & Ireland puddle jumper airline, never mind operating A320's or B737's to compete with the big boys who will soon buy you out or put you out o0f business, Go, Buzz, BMI Baby, to name but three all tried that, who is there to compete with and/or buy out a puddle jumper operation?
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Old 14th Mar 2017, 15:43
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Originally Posted by goldeneye
There is always the Do328 that sits in Dundee for most of the day between Stansted runs. No reason it couldn't position to Glasgow and operated GLA-IOM-GLA as a daily service, opposed to Citywings double daily.
Don't you think that Loganair would come up with another route from DND (e.g. AMS...) instead of doing positioning flights to GLA if they were willing to operate that aircaft on a commercial basis? Often, airlines are reluctant to dedicate PSO-aircraft to other routes as this can mess up the schedules (I suppose there are penalty clauses in contracts). Plus crewing gets more complicated etc. etc.

As for Dornier 228NG, DHC6-400 being produced again - where are these aircraft operated on a standalone commercial basis? They are niche applications, usually deployed to heavily subsidised routes or where nothing else can technically go (Twin Otter with floats). These aircraft no longer do traditional regional commuter flying like in the 1970s/1980s. If it was not for Barra, Loganair would have disposed of the Twin Otter ages ago.

Last edited by virginblue; 14th Mar 2017 at 16:48.
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Old 14th Mar 2017, 16:41
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GJP raises an interesting question - how much are you willing to pay?

I fly Eastern occasionaly but I've never thought they were cheap but then they fly small numbers of passengers (relatively) on airport pairs that the LCA's avoid..........
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Old 14th Mar 2017, 17:58
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Originally Posted by barry lloyd
How does Aurigny work then? (Guernsey population +/- 63,000)

I accept that the IOM tourist business has declined, but this can be reversed. It doesn't have the same balmy climate as the Channel Islands, but in the same way as the Orkneys, Shetlands and Hebrides it can be attractive to outdoorsy people.

I also understand that there will be occasions when the (based) aircraft cannot return because of bad weather, but that can be the case anywhere and people (passengers) who live on islands understand this.

FlyBe is known on the Island as flymaybe, and not just because of the effects of the weather. EZY come and go on routes throughout their network to suit themselves, which is their right and they could (and would) drop the IOM routes tomorrow if something more favourable came along.
Aurigny works because the Guernsey tax payer picks up the bill. They lost around £4.5million last year and have not made money for a number of years. Not viable for a commercial operation.
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Old 14th Mar 2017, 18:10
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IOS Skybus operate 4 BN2s and 4 DHC6s with out any commercial subsidy for an islands community of around 2,000 people so there's proof.
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Old 14th Mar 2017, 19:21
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IoSS Group generates the majority of its revenue not with flying, but with shipping, including hauling freight to the Scillies. Plus there is the minor detail that IoSS owns its airport at Land's End and gets EU funding for its upkeep, it enjoys a monopoly on flights and shipping to/from the Scillies and there are, in contrast to the Iom, no other ways to get there other than swimming.
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Old 14th Mar 2017, 21:56
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The only EU funding involved partly paid for some of the runway hardening in 2014 and according to the annual report, air sales was the highest revenue by some margin over the maritime activities.
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Old 14th Mar 2017, 22:28
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I'm not surprised that ISSCo generates most of its revenue from aviation. If you'd looked at the fares - minimum of £109 one-way for a 30-minute flight from Newquay to Isles of Scilly. How anyone believes that to be a valid comparison for IOM - where there is low-cost competition on the likes of LPL and LON and independent ferry competition - is beyond me.

I wouldn't have thought any airline could make the economics of IOM services work if they had to include empty aircraft positioning in their costings.
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