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Carlisle

Old 25th Feb 2014, 19:19
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Update?

Any update on hearing from anyone?
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Old 25th Feb 2014, 20:36
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A decision to be made in the next 3 weeks

News & Star | News | Carlisle Airport decision likely in next three weeks
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Old 7th Mar 2014, 15:58
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News & Star | News | 51% stake in Carlisle's Eddie Stobart firm to be sold

Interesting to see how this affects the airport development - in my view the business case for the airport doesn't stack up without the logistics development, so what happens now they are in two separate businesses?
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Old 7th Mar 2014, 16:27
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I wouldn't be surprised if Stobart have already given up on plans for Carlisle.

Who can blame them?
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Old 8th Mar 2014, 06:59
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They were back in the High Court only a couple of weeks ago - if they were thinking of dropping out, I would have thought before they incurred all that extra cost would have been a good breakpoint.
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Old 21st Mar 2014, 16:51
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and on and on and on....

News & Star | News | High Court verdict throws Carlisle Airport plans into disarray

Mr Justice Collins, one of the country’s most experienced planning judges, allowed the challenge by Gordon Brown, from Irthington and quashed the latest planning permission for a new freight storage and distribution facility at the airport.

The judge said that Mr Brown’s claim succeeded, though only on one ground put forward by him. That was failure by the planners to properly consider the viability of the expansion plans.

In a statement issued following the hearing, a Stobart Group spokesman said: “We are disappointed in what the court found was a borderline decision but obviously respect the court’s findings. However we are encouraged that the vast majority of Mr Brown’s arguments were rejected by the court.

“We have worked so hard to build a bigger and better Carlisle Lake District airport. Through our Stobart airline investment [formally Aer Arann, this week renamed as Stobart Air] our plans would have created a huge opportunity for the region.

"These plans included a daily flight to Dublin (and via customs clearance in Dublin, to the United States) and two daily flights to London and the South-East through our London Southend Airport. This would have been fantastic for the people of Carlisle and the surrounding region and would have allowed tourists from London and the South-East and the USA direct access to the Lake District, Carlisle and surrounding area.

“We still firmly believe that a thriving Carlisle Lake District airport will provide economic growth and jobs for the people of Carlisle and the surrounding area and to that end we intend to submit a new application taking into account today’s finding.”
The Stobart statement looks a bit disingenuous - the borderline decision was surely whether to allow permission, not the judges to overturn the permission.

And the permission may have only been overturned on one point, but that point was the "failure by the planners to properly consider the viability of the expansion plans"

Last edited by SWBKCB; 21st Mar 2014 at 17:13.
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Old 24th Mar 2014, 19:25
  #307 (permalink)  
 
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Thumbs down Carlisle,DTV and Manston

Sorry to jump from the dtv thread...but I am struggling to see how Carlisle can succeed where the other mentioned are really struggling.

Manston with a fantastic runway,dtv with the population....Carlisle with...let's be honest not a lot?

12 million people visiting the lakes.arrive at the airport.then what? Still 30 plus miles .. Car hire,excess baggage(boots) children walking gear? It's not going to happen sorry. Pack the car from 90% of the uk and it's not a problem.

Stobart want the land for a warehouse..fact!! Don't spool a fantastic area for the sake of 100!jobs.

Dtv. We are a lost cause also!!
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Old 26th Mar 2014, 16:28
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As part of the airport redevelopment plans, Stobart plan to build a freight distribution centre at the airport, which will become their main operating base. If the plans fall through, then Stobart have threatened to move their base outside of Carlisle, at the cost of 650 jobs.

The freight hub will provide valuable rental income for the airport, which will help to subsidise operation of the airfield. As most of the facilities at Carlisle will be newly built, they can be designed in such a way as to keep the maintenance costs as low as possible. This will give the airport a much lower cost base than the likes of Durham Tees Valley or Manston. This may be enough to keep the airfield viable.

Personally I am sceptical at the demand for passenger flights from Carlisle. I really cant see the demand for flights to London. Carlisle is well connected to London by train, so there is no advantage of flying. Unless connections can be offered at the other end, and at a reasonable cost, then there's just no demand there.

Dublin I can see working on a twice weekly service to allow for weekend breaks, but I can't see demand for a daily service. There may also be limited demand for European charters.

I think the main possibility for Carlisle exists in the freight market. With Stobarts moving their base to the airport and opening a freight distribution centre, then it offers a good opportunity to operate an airfreight operation, flying cargo in to Carlisle for distribution through the Stobart network.

The business case for Carlisle airport is certainly marginal, but at the end of the day it is Stobart that is footing the bill, so if they are prepared to pay for it - let them. We all gain from a nice new airport, that may then be able to attract some flights.
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Old 26th Mar 2014, 16:51
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Fair analysis, although I don't think having the distribution centre at the airport will actually attract any air cargo - one minor correction. Although they have previously mentioned moving south, there is a plan 'B' to stay in Carlisle if the airport development doesn't get approved as they already have permission for another site (Kingmoor Park I think?)
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Old 26th Mar 2014, 21:01
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Personally I am sceptical at the demand for passenger flights from Carlisle. I really cant see the demand for flights to London. Carlisle is well connected to London by train, so there is no advantage of flying. Unless connections can be offered at the other end, and at a reasonable cost, then there's just no demand there.
Connections at the other end means LHR - ain't going to happen.
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Old 27th Mar 2014, 10:40
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You can also connect through LCY and LGW, but again neither is likely to happen.

In Stobarts press release regarding the Southend service they mentioned the presence of Easyjet at the airport, suggesting that connections on to the Easyjet network may be offered. However this would go against Easyjets model, and I doubt the 2x daily schedule will connect well with most of the destinations offered, so I can't see that happening either.
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Old 27th Mar 2014, 13:02
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Presumably connections would work with the half a dozen routes to be flown from SEN by flyBE in the Stobart Air franchise agreement though.... but I'm not sure that would attract many pax.
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Old 27th Mar 2014, 14:44
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That's quote possible, and presumably the CAX flights would also operate under the FlyBE brand. FlyBE offer connections.
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Old 27th Mar 2014, 14:56
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Let's assume for a moment that the 6 destinations Flybe / Stobart chose to fly from Southend are mainly cities which do not have (or are about to lose) direct flights to SE England. This implies that these 6 cities do not have enough demand for a B737 / A320 from London.

If a route from London cannot support 150 pax per day, it seems very likely that demand for connections via Southend to/from Carlisle is likely to be very small. I just can't see many people wanting to fly Carlisle-Munster for example and would expect those travelling to/from Manchester or Glasgow would likely pick a route from MAN / GLA to an alternate airport instead.
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Old 27th Mar 2014, 15:26
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This implies that these 6 cities do not have enough demand for a B737 / A320 from London.

If a route from London cannot support 150 pax per day

Whoa, Whoa, Whoa, Whoa,

Just because a route cannot fill a once daily Airbus/Boeing does not mean the route cannot support 150 pax per day.

The NQY/LON/NQY route is a prime example of this, put a Y35 seater on it 4 times each day and the loads will average above break even, put a Y150 on it once a day and expect to lose money big time and very quickly.

Might we please get away from "the only way is loco" and get back to offering services at times when the travelling public actually want to travel.

That said I believe an ATR72 is an overkill for Carlisle, Carlisle needs a Y35 seater operation or below.
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Old 27th Mar 2014, 15:42
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PF - you have a point about Newquay. I'd also tend to agree with you that a 70+ seater out of Carlisle is too big an aircraft at the moment - something from Loganair seems perhaps a little more appropriate.

However, I maintain that if a city has not been able to maintain A320 / B737 service to an airport near London, then the number of people wanting to fly via Southend to Cumbria is likely to be extremely small, and should be substantially ignored when forming any sort of business plan about commercial passenger flights to/from Carlisle.
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Old 27th Mar 2014, 15:56
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DJ6,

On the proviso that punters live in Carlisle centre then travelling to Carlisle Airport plus check-in equates to one hour, block time to SEN equates to another hour followed by train SEN to a London terminus another hour.

So Carlisle centre to London terminus by air is 3 hours ... How long does the train take?
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Old 27th Mar 2014, 16:30
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Unlikely?

History tells us Carlisle is unable to sustain any schedule flights. Trips to the Isle of Man,2 or 3 per day 40 years ago maybe ..not now.for Iom read most destinations..it's not going to happen passenger wise.

So to freight..stobart shipping hundreds of tons of goods through the airport every day...not going to happen as not Eco friendly or cost effective.

This is purely about stobart building a distribution centre and the airport being a convenient excuse for it to happen?
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Old 27th Mar 2014, 16:33
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PF - I'm not quite sure what you're asking. My point is that the number of people wanting to fly CAX-SEN and connecting onto somewhere else with Stobart would be extremely small. As an example, I don't see Carlisle-Munster via Southend as having any significant demand. In my posts this week, I don't recall having said anything particular about the point-to-point CAX-SEN market.

As a separate issue, it's my opinion that CAX-SEN if it comes to fruition would in itself struggle as Carlisle-Euston takes less than 3h30 with a train every hour. I'd tend to defer to others who know the Carlisle-London market better than me though.
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Old 27th Mar 2014, 16:48
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DJ6,

That's the point I was making, if a route to LONDON were available then it might work but the train is faster to LONDON than an aeroplane via SEN.

I recall EuroAir operating Budgies LHR-Carlisle-Dundee and return, that lasted about as long as any ATR72 operation to/from DUB and SEN will last.
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