HEATHROW

[HOODED]

Nice. Leeds is definitely a slot sitter then. Probably why the poor timings then. The route has carried over 250000 since it was introduced and would do better still with better timings. Sadly KLM still carry the majority of onwards due to their early morning departure shortly followed by a Jet 2, and the KLM late evening arrival for those returning. I'd love to see more pax on BA through OUR hub and not AMS but slot restrictions mean it won't happen. Not going to change anytime soon sadly.

[DaveReidUK]

Heathrow R3 will be delivered 4 years late and way over budget, says Gatwick

Latest broadside from LGW in the war of words:

Heathrow plans for new runway blasted by rival | City A.M.

[WHBM]

Originally Posted by DaveReidUK

Latest broadside from LGW in the war of words:

Heathrow plans for new runway blasted by rival | City A.M.

which opens with

HEATHROW Airport has underestimated the cost of a new runway by up to £5.6bn and will take at least four years longer than planned to complete the project, according to research from EC Harris that was commissioned by Gatwick Airport.

Now what do EC Harris, project management consultants, know about projects blowing timescales and budgets. Let's look at where one of their top team went.

HS2 appoints EC Harris infrastructure boss as programme director


Yes, the hugely budget-blowing, delivered at some date way off in infinity, HS2 rail line, open (well, the first little bit) way after Heathrow's new runway will be open, is headed up by an ex-EC Harris guy. What's the estimate today ? £43 billion I read. For 120 miles of double track railway ......

[Bagso]

Can i just say which ever side of the fence you sit on its an intetesting debate but why oh why is the Transport Select Comittee not having this discussion. I have followed the various meetings with interest and at no point has one of the MPs scrutinised the figures as one of the posters on here has!

Anyway time to introduce some levity !

The cost has gone up another £8Billion since Sheds posting earlier today !

[anothertyke]

A very good post from Shed. Yes both LHR and LGW are stonkingly expensive.
Anyone interested in the content of the projects should look at the Jacobs/Leigh Fisher reports on the Commission website.

I don't know the content of Manchester runway 2 project but my reading of the LHR North-West option is that the runway plus taxiways component of the work is of the order of £1bn before allowing for risk. So it might be a few times the price probably for a bigger and more complex project. But that's not really the point.I think the key issue is more the sheer size of the M25 costs, the land acquisition, the T6 costs and the new sections of railway to deliver the project in its entirety which take the project from £1bn to £12.9bn before risk and optimism bias which add another £5bn or so.

[DaveReidUK]

Anyway time to introduce some brevity !

Not to be confused with levity.

[WHBM]

Originally Posted by Shed-on-a-Pole

The North has not yet had a single standalone publicly-funded infrastructure project approved at a price tag exceeding ONE billion (£1,000M), and to the best of my knowledge neither has any other region of the UK outside the SE.

The Edinburgh Tram finally came in at just over £1bn, for what turned out to be half of one line with a reportedly very low uptake of passengers. The benefit it delivers is miniscule in comparison to rebuilding Heathrow.

[nigel osborne]

WHBM.

Well EC Harris project manage many airport projects around the World ,and delivered T5 at Heathrow !!

They are also project managing recently a $1.5bn airport expansion programme at San Paulo airport, including detailed analysis of expected air traffic flows on existing and any further runway.

Also have just done the same for Kuala Lumpur airport last year.

They have provided costs of each project and time scale and viability of finances being put aside for the projects

So fair to say EC Harris know a great deal about airport infrastructure,projected runway capacity, time scales and costs .

Oh and Im not a Gatwick supporter and don't work for EC Harris either, Im from Brum.


Nigel

[Mr Mac]

Nigel Osborne / Shed
EC Harrris do have a good reputation as PM on foreign projects and indeed I have worked with them on some, but their star does wane a little on UK projects, probably due to political interference and enquiries. We seem incapable of keeping projects on budget in the UK as we never ever seem to reach a stage of design freeze, be it a school, an airport, or rail link, we just keep adding extras which are priced by the contractor accordingly.


Personally I do not want much more spending in the SE, I do not want HS2 as the saving of 20min on a fast train to London would spoil breakfast. HS3 is not required we just need longer trains so people do not have to stand on their trans Pennine journeys every day. It is just a joke what politicians think we want and they just get bemused by numbers


Shed
Your post of the 2.2.15 is excellent and just about sum,s up the feeling in the regions'. I will be sending to my MP for comment today, and will await the normal garbled reply of sound bites, and posturing (he is a Conservative incidentally).

Regards
Mr Mac

[Mr Mac]

Shed
Please see response from my MP on your very erudite post after I sent a copy to him for comment.


Regards
Mr Mac






Thank you for your email. I really appreciate your calculations and insight into potential options for airport expansion in the South East. That information will be invaluable when the Transport Committee, which I sit on, return to this subject later this year.





For 5 years I have been banging the drum for infrastructure investment in Yorkshire and I’m a keen advocate for HS2 and HS3. You rightly identify the Northern Hub. Electrification of the Trans Pennine Route, the managed Motorway schemes on the M1 and M62 and the Billion Pound Growth Deal for the Leeds City Region (Kirklees is part of this) are also major steps in the right direction.





The Prime Minister will be giving a major speech later this week on investment in Yorkshire – so watch this space.





Thanks again for you input.





Kind regards,





Jason





Jason McCartney MP


Member of Parliament for Colne Valley











Tel: [phone] (Westminster)


Tel: [phone] or 688378 (Constituency)


Email: [email protected]


Web: www.jasonmccartney.com

[nigel osborne]

Mr MAC thanks for your reply.

Thought it was amazing to see how the roof of T5 was slowly raised in one piece , whether that was EC Harris or someone elses idea on the project ,ingenious.

I share your view on HS2. The new station for it near Birmingham Airport is actually nearly a mile away from Birmingham International Station and BHX.

There is to be a rapid transit system between the HS2 Stn here and Bham International Station .So any time saved with the speedier train is surely lost by the time you get off it wait for the transit system and get into Bham Int for an onward train or to get to BHX...crazy ?


Nigel

[Bagso]

Well done Mr Mac

Jason McCartney has been outspoken in terms of why Manchester never formed part of the Airport Capacity debate , one which started as one about all UK airports but somewhow "morphed" into one specifically about the South East !

I also wrote to JC as letters to my nearest MP Graham Stringer, are naturally ignored as he sits very firmly in the Heathrow camp (he is only the MP for a constituency in ...er wait for it Manchester)

[MANFOD]

Jason McCartney has been outspoken in terms of why Manchester never formed part of the Airport Capacity debate , one which started as one about all UK airports but somehow "morphed" into one specifically about the South East !

I'm not aware that anyone on the Transport Select Committee or any of the other interested parties have questioned whether Davies has reinterpreted his original remit, and if so why. Perhaps it was inevitable it would come down to a choice between LHR and LGW but I feel he has given short shrift to the role that regional airports can play other than to emphasise 'connectivity' to London, at least from what has been reported. It's surprising in my view that people like
G Stringer MP appear to have accepted the claim that expansion of Heathrow will benefit the regions (implying all regions and by inference all regional airports). That is a highly questionable assertion for some of us.

[Bagso]

Tonights Evening Standard

Evening Standard Comment: Airport expansion will take political courage - Comment - Comment - London Evening Standard


Airport Expansion Will Take Political Courage ...and seemingly a bottomless pit of cash, one third of which will be ours !

[Fairdealfrank]

I can't imagine why BA is not out there announcing that, with a third runway, they will be adding domestic services to various points around the UK. With the absorption of BMI they already added two Heathrow domestic routes, Leeds and Belfast, which has given them some additional UK coverage. Inverness, Cardiff, Norwich, Liverpool etc would have politicians biting their hand off if offered a trunk route connection to Heathrow.

With a third rwy there may well be other carriers with aircraft more suited to thin domestic routes, BE perhaps, it wants to operate from NHT. Also, U2 has said (in its submission to the Commission) that it would introduce IOM, INV and JER plus taking on BA on the domestic trunk routes as well as on some Europe routes, should a third rwy be built.

It is notable I believe that at all the UK provincial airports which have a Heathrow service, that route is the No 1 for flights per day from those places, and for all that we hear of diversion of provincial traffic through Continental hubs, the route to Heathrow is still the principal destination for Edinburgh, Glasgow, Belfast, Manchester etc.

Indeed, and many other UK airports want (need?) such a link, as does business and enterprise. The suggestion that no one outside the southeast wants LHR expansion is risible.

And I support the project because it is necessary for the country - extending Gatwick alone is daft and just means London has two big airports which cannot compete with CDG AMS and FRA instead of just one . Blindingly obvious to anyone who has ever travelled on business but nevertheless a huge costly complex enquiry is seemingly necessary to come to the same conclusion that could be determined over a weekend and that would be one day more than necessary.

Quite right, or as they say at Gatwick, obviously.

Nice. Leeds is definitely a slot sitter then. Probably why the poor timings then. The route has carried over 250000 since it was introduced and would do better still with better timings. Sadly KLM still carry the majority of onwards due to their early morning departure shortly followed by a Jet 2, and the KLM late evening arrival for those returning. I'd love to see more pax on BA through OUR hub and not AMS but slot restrictions mean it won't happen. Not going to change anytime soon sadly.

Me too, and Leeds is not a slot sitter.

Can i just say which ever side of the fence you sit on its an intetesting debate but why oh why is the Transport Select Comittee not having this discussion. I have followed the various meetings with interest and at no point has one of the MPs scrutinised the figures as one of the posters on here has!

the Transport Select Comittee did, yonks ago, and, unsurprisingly, came out in favour of……..Heathrow.

Personally I do not want much more spending in the SE, I do not want HS2 as the saving of 20min on a fast train to London would spoil breakfast. HS3 is not required we just need longer trains so people do not have to stand on their trans Pennine journeys every day. It is just a joke what politicians think we want and they just get bemused by numbers

Since the south east has a third of the UK's population, it is hardly surprising that so much infrastructure spending takes place there. If not, the SE would grind to a standstill. Because of the high population, the SE also pays the bulk of UK taxation.

HS3 may not be needed but a massive improvement is necessary on Liverpool-Manchester-Leeds-Sheffield-York-Hull, and not just longer trains, and if SE taxation pays for it, good.

It's surprising in my view that people like G Stringer MP appear to have accepted the claim that expansion of Heathrow will benefit the regions (implying all regions and by inference all regional airports). That is a highly questionable assertion for some of us.

Why? just because he's a Manchester MP? As mentioned before, the suggestion that no one outside the south east wants LHR expansion is risible.

[eggc]

Nobody is perhaps a little over the top I agree Frank...the vast majority is probably more accurate.

Don't underestimate the resentment from non-Londoners about the excess of spending in London/SE, and lack of it everywhere else...it's a sure fire subject to get folks back up.

Then add local, and vocal, NIMBY's and spineless politicians to the mix...it's going to be an uphill battle to expand LHR in my humble opinion no matter what any committee recommends.

[Suzeman]

Why? because just he's a Manchester MP? As mentioned before, the suggestion that no one outside the south east wants LHR expansion is risible.

But Stringer could have been more vociferous in promoting the idea that by encouraging growth at regional airports and allowing them to satisfy more of their own demand on direct services, this can help the situation in the SE. This would free up some, albeit small, amounts of capacity for people who really need to go to or through London's Airports. This will become increasingly important as whatever happens in the SE won't add much extra capacity in the short term.

Stringer used to be a massive supporter of MAN but seems to be much less enthusiastic nowadays. He was of course a big cheese on Manchester Council when it was the majority owner; I wonder whether the formation of MAG and the sale of some of it privately due to the acquisition of Stansted has been one of the factors in this apparent reluctance to bang MAN's drum as hard as he used to?

[M62]

SE taxes

I'm getting fed up of being told how the South East pays more tax than the rest of the country and subsidises the rest of the UK and this justifies the huge infrastructure costs in the the south east. Don't forget that there are disproportionately more company HQ's in and around London. For example Marks and Spencer may be based in London and their corporation taxes are probably counted in the SE total but the profits are generated by the whole of the UK.

[Bagso]

Whilst there is "evidence" that extra runways at Heathrow will be in "The National Interest" quite how the benefit will ripple across The North, remains as hazy as the view from a runway with an RVR of less than 200ms.

There are still many Qs unanswered and certainly to me this is where the Transport Select Committee who are scrutinising this project need to be much more robust and forensic in their questioning. The "public costs" are at least now well detailed, although is it just me that seems to think they have only manifested themselves since a poster on here first alerted us to them a few months back ? (Thanks Shed)

I refer to the state aid element of course, (Transport Select Comittee members are you reading this...) if of course HAL want to throw £20B+ of there own money at this then by all means, proceed. I'm sure they will argue "National Interest" when they put there bowl out for the collection after the sermon, but hang on they will of course be the main benefactor of all future profits regardless of where the investment originates private .........OR indeed public !!!

The "costs" will start to kick in on the first day a yes decison is made ! The actual "income" figures being tossed around by those who are gushing about its probable success, well shall we just say they seem somewhat more vague as to a precise date we see a return.

AND what is the national ROI , "£250B, £300B, £450B" it really depends which day of the week it is and which way the wind is blowing.

How will this return be actually spilt ?
If the country puts in a third do we then deserve a third of the future profit or does it all go to HAL ?
#justasking

It's a bit like the country taking out a 20 year mortgage, it needs repaying from day 1 but it will be at least 20+ years before the debt is paid and even longer for any benefits to begin to accrue. Even then how long will it actually be before this multi billion windfall washes across the country and The North in particular?

Most importantly how does the country gaurantee its "own" return ?

Is it best use of £6,000,000,000m and WHO will ensure our investment is protected OR is it simply written off ?

Local MPs primarily should support initiatives in their own area. They should of course also support issues in "The National Interest" but not without recourse to their implications not least where there is a cost involved.

There are many MPs of a Northern persausion on the Transport Select Committee Louise Elhman (Liverpool), Graham Stringer (Manchester), Jason McCartney (Colne Valley). They do of course have to be totally impartial but not to the point where those "local interests" are discarded " at any cost" !
Mrs Elhman and Mr Stringer would do well to follow Mr McCartneys lead...

Those same MPs should also be mindful that an investment in their local area "might" be more immediatly transformational whilst the aggregate investment in a project 200 miles away with a timeline of over 20 years somewhat less so.

It is the type of reasoned questioning they should be following.

Maybe there are other projects across The North and indeed the UK of equal merit ! I think the term is "bangs for your buck".
I hasten to add I am not suggesting throwing cash around on ad hoc basis but investment in properly costed infastructure where
current thinking suggests we would obtain a real benefit and a thoroughly costed return.

I could be narrow minded here, a one sixth (yes one sixth, that's all) , spend of the the Heathrow allocation on say Manchester Airport would pay for all of Airport City...and still leave £200m in small change !

Alternatively could £1B be used for terminal expansion and improvement ?

How long to complete 3, 4 years ? Probably 5 years at most !

Utterly transformational for The North AND the added benefit of not having to wait a minimum of another 16 or 17 years for that still vague "Heathrow trickledown effect".

Given MAGs track record of paying back divdends at least we know "The Country" would get its money back.....

Of course there is a problem , we are not in London but could investment in an airport that is

• Central to the vast majority of the UK population.
• Serves 22m people
• Connects all the regions of the UK from Inverness to Newquay,
• Has thee best rail connections of any airport in the UK
• AND is less than one hour from 5 of our largest Cities

..... not be considered to be "In The National Interest" ?

Or

is it mandatory to be a "London Thing" ?

I suspect Frank is polishing the keys on his laptop as I type !

[eggc]

...but BA may have to break their business model (or stagnate in a restricted LHR), also god forbid Londoners/SE folk may have to travel to catch a flight plus LHR would not be able to keep up with / complete with CDG, AMS or FRA if MAN was used more being central to the entire country with more existing domestic connections than any other UK airport. We couldn't possible have any of that happening