|
Where are the sources for all this "knowledge"? |
[That's what I meant when I said : No proven ways. AF447 was almost a first in its kind. |
Originally Posted by olasek
(Post 8195469)
it happened many times and it was proven because it happened.
Unilke CFIT accidents in Non-precision approaches which are a frequent occurence and where the differences between the individual cases are minimal, accidents of modern airliners from cruise altitude very rarely have much in common with previous ones. There is no 'pattern' unlike with the former category of CFIT. Each case is quite different and from limited facts it is very difficult to conclude what happened based on experioence of past such occurences. Hope that makes it clearer. |
I think that makes it much clearer, and quite correctly, whilst at this stage people are bound to speculate it will only be when an interim report is published that speculation will have a focus.
As you rightly say, departure from cruise flight is not the norm, and the manufacturer (historically) will be anxious to have that interim report published. At that point some informed opinion might be helpful, meantime, these threads just go around in ever decreasing circles with every man and his dog pushing their pet theory, this was not always the case, but seems to be the modus operandi now. |
Two on board are still unaccounted for LAM says this is "speculation made on the day after the accident by passers-by with no understanding or experience of the aftermath of air crashes". So, I say again, where's the "knowledge"? Seems people are too quick to quote websites which, in turn, are too quick to slap up unsourced information Do you have any other like challenges against the quoted post so that we may find common room for discussion? |
The Namibian - Mozambique plane’s fatal 12 minutes (News | Namibia)
All quotes from named official sources. The Namibian is an independent and fairly accurate news source, knowing the local setup I would not expect government officials to be quoted without authorisation. The contents are of course up to interpretation, that's what we're doing on this forum. |
On autopilot at cruise. No one minding the store. .... and the autopilot tired to compensate, until it couldn't. |
Things have gone very quiet here...
In the mean time found the photo I was thinking of, my bad memory, it was an Il76 not an An12, but the point remains unchanged. These tracks were left by an aircraft that descended prematurely into the ground little over a mile from the threshold, fully configured for landing - hardly a high energy impact scenario: Photo of Ilyushin 76TD RDPL-34141 - Aviation Safety Network |
Gentlemen,
Avherald has some news... On Dec 12th 2013 reader Simon, meteorologist at a highly reputed university in the USA, submitted true colour satellite images (see below), that were taken by Eumetsat on the day of the crash at 11:15Z and 11:30Z. Reader Simon reported that he had never seen such a rapidly developing thunderstorm cell before. At 11:15Z that cell was located about 15nm to the right of the airway at position S19.398 E23.369 about 111nm from the crash site, most likely created updrafts in excess of 60 meters/second (117+ knots vertical), provided ice crystal icing conditions and grew its tops rapidly from about FL260 to FL420 within 30 minutes and falling back to FL300 again in another 30 minutes (at 12:00Z). A smaller cell was almost over the airway at position S19.493 E23.017 about 101nm from the crash site also creating ice crystal icing conditions and probably producing updrafts around 55 meters/second (107 knots vertical speed). On Dec 14th 2013 Mozambique's Civil Aviation Authority reported in a press conference, that the investigation is well underway, cockpit voice and flight data recorder have been successfully read out and have been analysed, a preliminary report is nearly finished. Results of the investigation so far rule out any mechanical problem or problem with the airworthiness of the aircraft as cause of the major accident. |
Here they come.....the experts
Aah, the Mozambique CAA experts...
They should have plenty of experience anyway. :)) |
The speculation is getting a bit wild here - it was clearly under control when it met the ground rather slowly. |
it was clearly under control when it met the ground rather slowly. Looks like a forced landing to me. Now - it also does not appear to be as violent a nose-in as some LOCA impacts (Roselawn/American or Payne Stewart/Learjet) - where the craters were barely bigger than the wingspans. A lot of possibilities remain - without enough (public) facts to assign probabilities. No radio call - could mean crew incapacitation, or it could just mean the crew were "aviating" to deal with a serious problem, rather than wasting time on pointless calls. I would have expected at least a final "Mayday, (location)!" once a crash was inevitable, if only to speed rescue response. But perhaps they just had their hands full, trying to pull off a miracle right up to impact. Weather - definitely not ruled out. Or in. Potentially hazardous conditions nearby - but in broad daylight at FL380, generally you can see such stuff from a long ways off. It is not like nightime (AF447) or flying into an embedded storm in overcast at 15,000. Mechanical - "ruled out" so far according to investigators - but there may still be facts to be uncovered. I originally thought of an elevator/trim jam (failure or ice) - but on consideration I think that would have resulted in a more vertical dive and crater, and would stick out like a sore thumb on the FDR. |
Unless they were idiots, there's no way they would have been anywhere near those alleged buildups in broad daylight. And while that description/quote by Sydy of fast building clouds sounds scary, the reality is jets move at 14km per minute and can easily avoid developing cumulonimbus by going around them.
|
I wouldn't exclude as wild all comments about meeting the ground whilst under control and/or slowly in a descent rate.
Some ground scar indications support that. That still leaves open how and why the plane got there and what pilots inputs occurred over time. |
jets move at 14km per minute and can easily avoid developing cumulonimbus by going around them |
I'd be cautious in interpreting the "ground scars" one way or the other.
Whatever else the weather may have been doing, the scene pictures show rather clearly that the site was "washed" with either a heavy or prolonged amount of rain after the crash, but before the photographers got there. There are rivulet marks around and through the remains of both the aircraft and the ground foliage, and mounding of mud around (and in a few cases, over) the smaller pieces. A general "softening" of the scars. And the charred logs have also been dampened post-fire (I've put out enough campfires to recognize that look. ;) ) This, of course, says nothing about the crash or its cause - simply that the ground evidence has been somewhat compromised by nature. The first "ground-level" picture on avherald shows this the most clearly. |
Originally Posted by Jazz Hands
Sounds like the Namibians, the day after, trashed a transport aircraft (possibly an An-26) which was sent to pick up the casualties...
More details here (title by itself is a gem :) ): The Namibian - Airforce plane in near horrific plane crash (News | Namibia) |
I'm not knowledgeable on the ERJ series of aircraft but I'm curious if they are possibly susceptible to the same inner turbine icing that the JT15D-5's on the Beech 400A experienced. If I recall the Beech Jet's suffered some dual engine flameouts back in the early 2000's while operating in the vicinity of convective buildups. It was found that ice crystals thrown off by the buildups would cause the icing and lead to engine failure.
Someone correct me if I'm wrong, it's been a while. |
Suicide could be a likely cause now.
Taken from avcom.co.za: Email/news in Mozambique going around saying is was suicide. Apparently, one of the pilots, had two kids die two weeks earlier and had a marriage that was on the rocks. Asked the other pilot to get something and locked the door. Still doesn't explain the RoD. Will do some more digging.. The Namibian - No mechanic malfunction in air crash - probe (News | Namibia) A Namibian newpaper reports the below in this article Vliegramp: Span soek vir 'onwettige inmenging' | Republikein.com.na The text below is written in a kind of Dutch language spoken in parts of Namibia and South Africa. What is written is this: The team (doing the investigation into cause of the crash) now shifts their research from a mechanical cause to issues with flight operations. This includes the crew and other people involved in operating the flight. We like to determine if illegal activities are the cause of the accident. A question by journalist if this means sabotage or a bomb could be the cause of the accident, the leader of the investigation team said "absolutely not" “Die span verskuif dus nou hul fokus van moontlike meganiese probleme na probleme met die vlugbedrywighede. Dit sluit die bemanning of enige ander mense betrokke by die vlugen sy bedrywighede in. Ons wil vasstel of onwettige optrede dalk die oorsaak was.” Op ’n vraag of hy hiermee sabotasie of ’n bom bedoel, het Nengola gesę daar is nie “sprake van so iets nie” |
a kind of Dutch language spoken in parts of Namibia and South Africa. |
| All times are GMT. The time now is 05:11. |
Copyright © 2024 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.