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Where are the sources for all this "knowledge"? |
[That's what I meant when I said : No proven ways. AF447 was almost a first in its kind. |
Originally Posted by olasek
(Post 8195469)
it happened many times and it was proven because it happened.
Unilke CFIT accidents in Non-precision approaches which are a frequent occurence and where the differences between the individual cases are minimal, accidents of modern airliners from cruise altitude very rarely have much in common with previous ones. There is no 'pattern' unlike with the former category of CFIT. Each case is quite different and from limited facts it is very difficult to conclude what happened based on experioence of past such occurences. Hope that makes it clearer. |
I think that makes it much clearer, and quite correctly, whilst at this stage people are bound to speculate it will only be when an interim report is published that speculation will have a focus.
As you rightly say, departure from cruise flight is not the norm, and the manufacturer (historically) will be anxious to have that interim report published. At that point some informed opinion might be helpful, meantime, these threads just go around in ever decreasing circles with every man and his dog pushing their pet theory, this was not always the case, but seems to be the modus operandi now. |
Two on board are still unaccounted for LAM says this is "speculation made on the day after the accident by passers-by with no understanding or experience of the aftermath of air crashes". So, I say again, where's the "knowledge"? Seems people are too quick to quote websites which, in turn, are too quick to slap up unsourced information Do you have any other like challenges against the quoted post so that we may find common room for discussion? |
The Namibian - Mozambique plane’s fatal 12 minutes (News | Namibia)
All quotes from named official sources. The Namibian is an independent and fairly accurate news source, knowing the local setup I would not expect government officials to be quoted without authorisation. The contents are of course up to interpretation, that's what we're doing on this forum. |
On autopilot at cruise. No one minding the store. .... and the autopilot tired to compensate, until it couldn't. |
Things have gone very quiet here...
In the mean time found the photo I was thinking of, my bad memory, it was an Il76 not an An12, but the point remains unchanged. These tracks were left by an aircraft that descended prematurely into the ground little over a mile from the threshold, fully configured for landing - hardly a high energy impact scenario: Photo of Ilyushin 76TD RDPL-34141 - Aviation Safety Network |
Gentlemen,
Avherald has some news... On Dec 12th 2013 reader Simon, meteorologist at a highly reputed university in the USA, submitted true colour satellite images (see below), that were taken by Eumetsat on the day of the crash at 11:15Z and 11:30Z. Reader Simon reported that he had never seen such a rapidly developing thunderstorm cell before. At 11:15Z that cell was located about 15nm to the right of the airway at position S19.398 E23.369 about 111nm from the crash site, most likely created updrafts in excess of 60 meters/second (117+ knots vertical), provided ice crystal icing conditions and grew its tops rapidly from about FL260 to FL420 within 30 minutes and falling back to FL300 again in another 30 minutes (at 12:00Z). A smaller cell was almost over the airway at position S19.493 E23.017 about 101nm from the crash site also creating ice crystal icing conditions and probably producing updrafts around 55 meters/second (107 knots vertical speed). On Dec 14th 2013 Mozambique's Civil Aviation Authority reported in a press conference, that the investigation is well underway, cockpit voice and flight data recorder have been successfully read out and have been analysed, a preliminary report is nearly finished. Results of the investigation so far rule out any mechanical problem or problem with the airworthiness of the aircraft as cause of the major accident. |
Here they come.....the experts
Aah, the Mozambique CAA experts...
They should have plenty of experience anyway. :)) |
The speculation is getting a bit wild here - it was clearly under control when it met the ground rather slowly. |
it was clearly under control when it met the ground rather slowly. Looks like a forced landing to me. Now - it also does not appear to be as violent a nose-in as some LOCA impacts (Roselawn/American or Payne Stewart/Learjet) - where the craters were barely bigger than the wingspans. A lot of possibilities remain - without enough (public) facts to assign probabilities. No radio call - could mean crew incapacitation, or it could just mean the crew were "aviating" to deal with a serious problem, rather than wasting time on pointless calls. I would have expected at least a final "Mayday, (location)!" once a crash was inevitable, if only to speed rescue response. But perhaps they just had their hands full, trying to pull off a miracle right up to impact. Weather - definitely not ruled out. Or in. Potentially hazardous conditions nearby - but in broad daylight at FL380, generally you can see such stuff from a long ways off. It is not like nightime (AF447) or flying into an embedded storm in overcast at 15,000. Mechanical - "ruled out" so far according to investigators - but there may still be facts to be uncovered. I originally thought of an elevator/trim jam (failure or ice) - but on consideration I think that would have resulted in a more vertical dive and crater, and would stick out like a sore thumb on the FDR. |
Unless they were idiots, there's no way they would have been anywhere near those alleged buildups in broad daylight. And while that description/quote by Sydy of fast building clouds sounds scary, the reality is jets move at 14km per minute and can easily avoid developing cumulonimbus by going around them.
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I wouldn't exclude as wild all comments about meeting the ground whilst under control and/or slowly in a descent rate.
Some ground scar indications support that. That still leaves open how and why the plane got there and what pilots inputs occurred over time. |
jets move at 14km per minute and can easily avoid developing cumulonimbus by going around them |
I'd be cautious in interpreting the "ground scars" one way or the other.
Whatever else the weather may have been doing, the scene pictures show rather clearly that the site was "washed" with either a heavy or prolonged amount of rain after the crash, but before the photographers got there. There are rivulet marks around and through the remains of both the aircraft and the ground foliage, and mounding of mud around (and in a few cases, over) the smaller pieces. A general "softening" of the scars. And the charred logs have also been dampened post-fire (I've put out enough campfires to recognize that look. ;) ) This, of course, says nothing about the crash or its cause - simply that the ground evidence has been somewhat compromised by nature. The first "ground-level" picture on avherald shows this the most clearly. |
Originally Posted by Jazz Hands
Sounds like the Namibians, the day after, trashed a transport aircraft (possibly an An-26) which was sent to pick up the casualties...
More details here (title by itself is a gem :) ): The Namibian - Airforce plane in near horrific plane crash (News | Namibia) |
I'm not knowledgeable on the ERJ series of aircraft but I'm curious if they are possibly susceptible to the same inner turbine icing that the JT15D-5's on the Beech 400A experienced. If I recall the Beech Jet's suffered some dual engine flameouts back in the early 2000's while operating in the vicinity of convective buildups. It was found that ice crystals thrown off by the buildups would cause the icing and lead to engine failure.
Someone correct me if I'm wrong, it's been a while. |
Suicide could be a likely cause now.
Taken from avcom.co.za: Email/news in Mozambique going around saying is was suicide. Apparently, one of the pilots, had two kids die two weeks earlier and had a marriage that was on the rocks. Asked the other pilot to get something and locked the door. Still doesn't explain the RoD. Will do some more digging.. The Namibian - No mechanic malfunction in air crash - probe (News | Namibia) A Namibian newpaper reports the below in this article Vliegramp: Span soek vir 'onwettige inmenging' | Republikein.com.na The text below is written in a kind of Dutch language spoken in parts of Namibia and South Africa. What is written is this: The team (doing the investigation into cause of the crash) now shifts their research from a mechanical cause to issues with flight operations. This includes the crew and other people involved in operating the flight. We like to determine if illegal activities are the cause of the accident. A question by journalist if this means sabotage or a bomb could be the cause of the accident, the leader of the investigation team said "absolutely not" “Die span verskuif dus nou hul fokus van moontlike meganiese probleme na probleme met die vlugbedrywighede. Dit sluit die bemanning of enige ander mense betrokke by die vlugen sy bedrywighede in. Ons wil vasstel of onwettige optrede dalk die oorsaak was.” Op ’n vraag of hy hiermee sabotasie of ’n bom bedoel, het Nengola gesê daar is nie “sprake van so iets nie” |
a kind of Dutch language spoken in parts of Namibia and South Africa. |
Did some research on this possible suicide and found this on Facebook. It is written in Portugese and translated by Google.
It seems the captain on this flight went to his manager two days before the fatal flight and asked to be replaced because he was not fit to fly. He had problems in the relationshipo with his wife. LAM refused to substitute the captain. His wife left him 15 days before the crash. The reason for not substitute is unclear because of not very good translation of Portugese language. Maybe someone can translate. https://www.facebook.com/groups/1909...8086184557402/ TM470 flight to Luanda was purposeful by the pilot making so its suicide! According to sources anonymous pilot or flight commander is TM470 had a son who committed suicide in the month of November last year, and that the flight comandate TM470 recently attempted suicide and had psychological problems, yet LAM left continue to fly, which was abandoned by his wife 15 days before the accident had a inclusivee DISCUSSION her not night before the flight, and the voice data recorder quee (Registration voice box) prove that the commander Aircraft asked the copilot to go perform a task outside of the cockpit and then locked the door and directed the aircraft flight TM470 to crash, leading to death of all passengers and tripulantees! that truth hidden by the rear doors on the cabinets investigaçaao ocorridoo acidentee |
At December 16 only 7 of the 33 bodies have been identified according this article of a Mozambique website.
Milhares de pessoas prestaram homenagem às vítimas do TM 470 em Maputo |
The suicide theory sounds like another wild conspiracy theory / rumour being spread on social media.
It makes no logical sense, a suicide would have hit the ground nose down and fast rather than level and slow. In the absence of an official interim report we should treat this one with maximum scepticism. |
Nothing is certain unless it is certain. Suicide is one of the possible scenario's and cannot be ruled out. Mechanical and electrical causes, bomb and sabotage are ruled out now.
We have to wait a few more days untill the preliminary report has been made public. I believe this report is scheduled at the end of this month. We might know more then. |
Suicide seems the most likely cause at this point:
On Dec 21st 2013 Mozambique's Civil Aviation Authority reported in a press conference (the preliminary report has not yet been released by Namibia's Accident Investigation Commission), that cockpit voice recorder and flight data recorder revealed, that the captain was alone on the flight deck, banging on the flight deck door could be heard on the cockpit voice recorder. The autoflight systems (autothrottle and autopilot) were engaged. There were sounds and clicks consistent with a person knowledgeable of the aircraft systems commanding the engines to idle thrust and selecting the autoflight systems into a descent at 6000 feet per minute. Numerous warnings and alerts were not responded to. By the way, suicide is not a 'conspiracy' theory, had happened before a few times. And there is absolutely no justification in making assertion purely on the looks of the ground scar that the flight was 'slow and level' when hitting the ground. Crash: LAM E190 over Botswana/Namibia on Nov 29th 2013, captain intentionally crashed aircraft |
some additional details taken from here
Mozambique airline captain 'intentionally' crashed: probe Abreu told a news conference that Dos Santos Fernandes locked himself inside the cockpit, ignored warning signals and did not allow his co-pilot back in moments before the Embraer 190 hit the ground. "During these actions you can hear low and high-intensity alarm signals and repeated beating against the door with demands to come into the cockpit," he was quoted as saying by state news agency AIM. The altitude was manually changed three times from 38,000 feet to 592 feet -- below ground level -- and the aircraft's speed was also changed manually, according to the preliminary report. Airbrake parameters showed the spoilers, aerodynamic resistance plates on the wings, were deployed and held in that position until the end of the recordings, which proved the throttle was manually controlled. "The plane fell with the pilot alert and the reasons which may have given rise to this behaviour are unknown. At the time, the co-pilot had left the cockpit and was absent while everything happened," said Abreu. |
went to his manager two days before the fatal flight and asked to be replaced because he was not fit to fly. |
BBC news reporting on LAM suicide claim this morning.
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Quite possibly the most disturbing thing I have ever heard in over 10 years flying. Part of me still doesn't want to believe its true :(
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Assuming the suicide theory is true, this presumably could be an example of where anti-terrorism locking cockpit doors might have contributed to this accident - and could do again. Is there any way crew can open a cockpit security door from the cabin? Even if the detail is not made public on this forum, for obvious reasons! If not should there be?
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Seems to a speciality of this part of the world. About 15 years ago an Air Botswana pilot on a suicide mission kamikazied his aircraft onto the tarmac at Gabs and wiped out the rest of the carrier's fleet.
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There is an emergency opening code, but it only works with a delay and if it is not countered from within. If there is someone inside who does not want the door to be opened, then the door will do what it was designed for.
Balance so far of this brilliant idea: Fatal accidents (where locked door a likely contributing cause): 2 Fatalities: 154 Cost to airline industry: $2billion Prevented incidents: 0 |
Fatal accidents (where locked door a likely contributing cause): 2 This one Silk Air 185 Helios 522? Egypt 990? Of course even before the locked doors were other awful cases. Royal Air Morac and Air Botswana, both ATRs ironically spring to mind. |
Silk Air and Egypt Air both happened before the reinforced cockpit door became mandatory. In Helios it was a likely contributing cause, and certainly was the case now. Sad to see how 10+ years ago this was clearly predicted by those who know something about the industry...
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andrasz,
I'm sure you are right. Worrying where time goes |
If he preplanned the event, surely mass murder is a more apt description of his actions?
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Yes but why would a flight attendant not replace the co pilot so ensuring 2 up front
Airline managers also at fault? |
This would point to a certain conclusion indeed. But I doubt any regulating authority will let common sense get in the way of constant fear mongering: those nasty turrists are hiding behind every bush and any trolley in the aircraft and just waiting for the guards to be let down...
It is obvious that the reinforced cockpit door has been contributing to many total losses. But seeing the general climate of using some "war against terrorism" as the sole raison d´être for anything security related (including the whole secret service affaire at the moment), I already hear the choir shout "Many attacks have been thwarted by this doors presence". Be it true or not, it is impossible to prove the opposite, and I am afraid that no authority would be prepared to take the responsibility in case of a repeat of those hijackings of 2001. So whether one likes it or not and leaving aside any common sense, those doors are likely here to stay and those souls that perished in the above mentioned accidents and the one in question as well are apparently just acceptable corollary damage in a greater game. |
The obvious answer to this 'problem' is of course 3 man flight deck crews, but of course that will not or can't happen for a multitude of reasons.
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Even before the "reinforced door" the door could be locked (and who knows how quickly the key could be found if at all) and, certainly Boeings, also have a simple mechanical deadlock that could not be defeated from outside.
I spent a period flying for a carrier in which the ability of my colleagues was (to be polite) "questionable" & always left the door unlocked when nipping out, on the basis that (flying over Africa at night with virtually no pax on board, & those anyhow asleep ) it was the lesser of the 2 dangers. I always think that we should all adopt the "pilot absent must be replaced by a CC " rule. . . . . the thought of a pilot incapacitation/falling onto the controls, or rapid decompression, or severe turbulence in which the sole occupant is knocked out & also falls onto control column, or something mundane like choking on a bit of food being troughed whilst the other guy is back having a leak, to name but 4 scenarios, warrants an industry wide adoption of some back-up I feel, but very few companies mandate it. |
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