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Originally Posted by DaveReidUK
(Post 11367672)
I'm struggling to work out from Simon's conclusion about the videos whether he actually thinks they are fake or genuine:
Make of that what you will. As someone above said, I don’t get the logic of the fact he stated that because you couldn’t see the pitch up, from a camera inside the plane with no reference points, that it was fake. Hopefully now the BBC and Guardian have confirmed with the families that it was real, This whole “Real not real” is put to bed. The most scary thing for me is that people are so accustomed to fakes now and such is the levels of complexity to them, that people literally cannot tell what is real and what isn’t - that is alarming. |
Originally Posted by vilas
(Post 11367186)
But who will point it out through the window. The person holding the phone surely will take some support and not keep holding it unless it got stuck in the window.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-64287331 |
After fiddling around with Google Earth a bit, yes they appear to have been right over the end of RWY 22, or just E of it. The view out the window can be reproduced exactly on Google Earth from approximately that position. But is that the correct approach to 12 anyway?
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Originally Posted by golson41
(Post 11367646)
Based on helicopter video of the scene, looks like below is where the crash site is.
GPS Coordinates = 28.197723 83.985007 (Right near the Pokhara Christian Graveyard) Seems pretty convincing that they were in line to land at the wrong airport. When they pass by the Stadium, they should be almost wheels down to be landing on the old runway - but they are a few hundred feet up. Almost certainly they were doing a circuit and this was the final turn to align with the new runway from the East side. That final turn lines up with the GPS coordinates of that graveyard. I suspect that final turn began somewhere around here : 28.202429, 83.982925 |
Originally Posted by RiSq
(Post 11367746)
That would mean he has removed the rest - as it also stated that both were fake (there was apparently a fake video showing the aircraft bank right with an engine fire) - which obviously was fake.
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Originally Posted by MissChief
(Post 11367694)
Poor piloting in all probability. The FDR and CVR should answer the questions and theories here. Best now to wait, but not to forget. After all, Pokhara is not Buffalo. It is an insignificant Nepalese city in most Westerners' eyes.
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Originally Posted by aox
(Post 11367458)
Given the rough track that some folks have deduced from landmarks in the video, and the height, it seems likely that this was similar to earlier reported flight(s?) with circuit to the north of the new airport, base leg coincidentally approximately on a line of the old runway, 90 degree left turn to line up on 12 (new)
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Originally Posted by golson41
(Post 11367646)
Based on helicopter video of the scene, looks like below is where the crash site is.
GPS Coordinates = 28.197723 83.985007 (Right near the Pokhara Christian Graveyard) Seems pretty convincing that they were in line to land at the wrong airport. The new airport opened 2 weeks ago. ATC said the plane was landing from the wrong direction. And the path based on the passenger phone video has them in line with old runway. Probably LATE in their landing sequence they realized this, and decided to redirect to the new airport. But they were too low, and speed too slow, and they were probably too busy/distracted with the change on the plan, and the VERY hard left turn they needed to make. All added up to the stall and crash. Scary that the almost exact same thing killed the co-pilot's husband years earlier. I'm sure it's likely Anju the co-pilot was at the controls. Are there any regulations in the US if you are need to change runways or are missing your landing path, when you need to abort and go around? |
Originally Posted by rmac2
(Post 11367792)
First sensible comment I have seen on the wrong airport/runway speculation. Base to final turn, possibly went through the centreline and then tried to force the aircraft around too quickly. Bottom rudder, touch of opposite aileron and a hard pitch to keep the nose up, classic skidding turn with high AoA, predictable results. Also looks like first stage flap only, reinforcing the assumption of a base to final turn.
Dropping a wing is consistent with a stall but why? Did the turn cause the stall? Seems unlikely if it was business as usual in the cabin up to the last second of losing control because how do you get into an accelerated stall with so little fuss among passengers? There would be some alarm I would think even if this approach is the mega version of flying into McCarran. Did a wing stall first for some reason (asymmetric thrust, control surfaces) and that cause the turn? Or was it not a stall and instead CFIT or inadvertent loss of control or cockpit chaos resulting in flying a perfectly airworthy craft into the ground? US Bangla 211? I'm leaning toward an airworthy plane was just flown into the ground but who knows and I don't. We'll find out though. |
Originally Posted by michaelbinary
(Post 11366938)
If that video is real. then
1s you can see plane passing Pokhara football stadium 2s far field is the cricket ground with the centre pitch covered, the near field is the anapurna skate park 3-7s you can see the left wing tip drop to enter a left turn. 7+s the road from bottom to top of the screen with the kink in it, puts the plane about 300ft altitude over and approx halfway down the old airfield runway. this is approx 2K from the threshold of runway 12 of the new airport and requires an immediate steep 90 degree left turn, which the plane didnt make. I already said this about 5 pages ago. |
Originally Posted by rmac2
(Post 11367792)
First sensible comment I have seen on the wrong airport/runway speculation. Base to final turn, possibly went through the centreline and then tried to force the aircraft around too quickly. Bottom rudder, touch of opposite aileron and a hard pitch to keep the nose up, classic skidding turn with high AoA, predictable results. Also looks like first stage flap only, reinforcing the assumption of a base to final turn.
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Amazing last few pages to read, it used to be here instant investigations using FR24, now it is instant investigation by facebook videos. Whether the video is real of fake, it does not matter much as it will not reveal what happened ,only the FDR and CVR may. And as they look in good condition, hopefully they can be read, not in Nepal as it does not have the facilities, most probably by the BEA or NTSB which will ensure a good analysis.
When I read here: poor piloting, wrong airport, wrong runway, etc..all speculations that are not supported by any evidence, at all, and taken and used as facts by the next uniformed poster it starts to look like a witch hunt. A bit of respect for the Pilots' families please. |
Originally Posted by ifylofd
(Post 11367311)
Not sure if any footage has identified one or the other props feathered (?) or engine failure, but could not the end event / disaster be the result of an engine failure event on approach that was not handled IAW operator / manufacturer guidelines? (leading to an aerodynamic stall / CFIT)
There appears to be much speculation, but what we have seen may be the consequences of an event moments before the footage (that is widely available) commences. |
Originally Posted by michaelbinary
(Post 11367855)
They werent landing at the wrong airfield, they were already over it at about 300 feet heading towards the new airfield
I already said this about 5 pages ago. By the time such an error was realised it might be too late to correct it. The difference in seniority may also have led to a delay. Only a theory, but in the absence of a concrete cause it cant be discounted and it doesn't appear to be mech failure. |
Originally Posted by ATC Watcher
(Post 11367915)
When I read here : poor piloting , wrong airport, wrong runway , etc..all speculations that are not supported by any evidence, at all and taken and used as facts by the next uniformed poster it sarts to look like a witch hunt.
A bit of respect for the Pilots families please, |
You have no evidence to suggest it wasnt a mechanical issue at all. NONE, and there is no evidence yet to suggest it was either.
They were heading to the old airfield because it just happens to be under the left hand circuit required to line up with 12 of the new airport. (assuming a left hand circuit) Thats why they were at 300-400 feet overhead the old runway starting to make a left turn to line up with 12. Trouble is they were only 1.5 - 2K from the 12 threshold so very close in, and trying to make a tight 90 degree turn at reasonably low speed and as we all saw it didnt end well. |
I am not a Pilot, Professional or Amateur; my only experience was in learning to fly a Glider, very many years ago. My Brother-in-Law is a very experienced (perhaps somewhat arrogant) Airline Pilot of many years experience, we talk a lot about about his job and experiences.
I have spent my entire working life in Change Management, Acceptance Testing and Training. I regularly carry out and learn a lot from Scenario Analysis. I unhesitatingly applaud those who “speculate” on the causes of accidents; sometimes assuming the obvious or waiting for the conclusions of an investigation waste a valuable “learning opportunity”. Keep it up people, even an outsider like me can learn from Human Factors and analysis :ok: |
Originally Posted by WingMen
(Post 11367781)
They were too high over turning at Bhadrakali Temple to be planning on landing on the old runway.
When they pass by the Stadium, they should be almost wheels down to be landing on the old runway - but they are a few hundred feet up. Almost certainly they were doing a circuit and this was the final turn to align with the new runway from the East side. That final turn lines up with the GPS coordinates of that graveyard. |
Originally Posted by michaelbinary
(Post 11367940)
You have no evidence to suggest it wasnt a mechanical issue at all. NONE, and there is no evidence yet to suggest it was either.
They were heading to the old airfield because it just happens to be under the left hand circuit required to line up with 21 of the new airport. (assuming a left hand circuit) Thats why they were at 300-400 feet overhead the old runway starting to make a left turn to line up with 21. Trouble is they were only 1.5 - 2K from the 21 threshold so very close in, and trying to make a tight 90 degree turn at reasonably low speed and as we all saw it didnt end well. The fact the wheels were down however, suggests they were planning to land. If the wheels were configured for a landing then it's likely the rest of the plane was too. If they were configured for a landing we have to ask ourselves where - the nearest airport is the old one and it seems they were lined up with it. If they thought they were landing at the new airport would they have the wheels down this early? We also need to ask why they made such a sharp turn at a relatively slow speed. Again, it's possible it was a panic type reaction that led to this. |
Originally Posted by barrymung
(Post 11367960)
The fact the wheels were down however, suggests they were planning to land. If the wheels were configured for a landing then it's likely the rest of the plane was too. If they were configured for a landing we have to ask ourselves where - the nearest airport is the old one and it seems they were lined up with it. If they thought they were landing at the new airport would they have the wheels down this early?
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