Hi Maxred,
Skipness is only a few miles downwind (on Thurs) of Arran 2868ft.
However many other scenarios are possible

Max wind from Campbelltown METAR in online archive was 20 mph at noon that day. That doesn't suggest turbulence downwind of Arran that would trouble a Pa28.
Unless flying very low, sea fog shouldn't affect them - the terrain would give a good VFR horizon.
If flying very low, they should be able to climb when they see the fog forming.
They'd had a full day's rest after 9 hours climbing Ben Nevis.
Waiting for the AAIB report. There's no report so far of what wreckage was like - high speed impact, or ditching.

On another forum there were photographs posted from an aircraft travelling North to Oban, at the time of the incident. Over the Firth of Clyde, as he passed PIK, there was a large bank of sea fog. Not sure how further West it travelled, but it appeared pretty extensive. The route North was pretty overcast, with breaks. If these guys had to ditch, it would be difficult coming through a low level fog bank. As Maoraigh1 states, await the report. I was only stating a geographical point regarding mountains. DO, appreciate Goat Fell, but that is Arran, not the Mull.

A control issue seems more likely than mechanical as the channel they came down in is only 3 miles wide. If they had a mechanical issues mid channel anything above appx. 1000 feet cruise altitude is gonna get you a glide back to shore.

PB, agree. I reviewed the video, taken from 5300, over Dunoon, and it was pretty crap. OC about 3500, no breaks visible, with the fog bank extending to Arran. I have ran into a wall of fog at that channel many times. Only way is up and on top. Or through it, but then you are full IMC.

I had I bit of "oh **** what am I doing here" moment over that area a few years back before I had my instrument ticket. Heading back up to Forfar from Strathaven in the alley between GLA and EDI and decided on the spur of the moment to swing west and go to Glenforsa for something to eat, got clearance for the overhead at Glasgow then started climbing . First broken layer was about 3K then a second one about 5k, was stitching my way up thru holes in the layers when my room to manoeuvre started closing up coupled with slowing climb rate, smaller holes and the layers merging all accompanied with that knot in my stomach getting bigger and tightening grip on the yolk. I thought to myself you idiot going of on an unplanned jolly in marginal weather over the West Coast. Broke out on top to blue skies, my arse immediately unpuckered itself and I had a lovely lunch at the hotel.
Lessons learned: Look before you leap.

Hmm. Some years ago I was flying downwind of Snowdonia near Anglesey with Caernarfon surface wind < 5 KTS when we were hit by lee side turbulence. I have never experienced turbulence like it; I could not control the aeroplane, I was a passenger, my head was hitting the canopy despite a tightened aerobatic harness, the aeroplane was being tossed like a cork on a rough sea, and wisps of cloud were forming and dispersing around us in the otherwise clear air. I feared for the integrity of the airframe (Chipmunk, so quite strong). I headed away from the hills and Just as suddenly as it had started, it spat us out.

A few years before that incident a C150 I used to fly out of Manchester crashed on the lee side of Kinder Scout in Derbyshire in severe sink at night, with Manchester Airport (who was working them) reporting a surface wind of < 5 KTS. The AAIB report indicated there was an unusual air formation over the hills funneling the surface air between the upper mass and the top of the hill; the estimated surface wind speed on Kinder summit was > 50 KTS! Thankfully the pilots escaped with minor injuries.

I suspect we encountered a similar phenomena that day near Snowdonia.

Local lowland calm winds do not mean you will not experience deadly turbulence downwind of mountains.

Not suggesting of course that that was the case here. Just passing on some experience I hope might be useful regarding flying downwind of mountains even in low reported surface winds.

I was in a region of nicely rounded hills/ridges about 3500' above a wide 10mile, flat valley. The medium level clouds were quiet suggesting a light wind at 10,000'. The valley showed a light breeze. On top of the hills it was 40kph. This could easily have set up a wave downwind of the ridges and would suggest a squeezing of the wind between ground & a medium level lid. There was no visible inversion. Meteorology can bring about many nigh invisible surprises.

Unpleasant​ turbulence is one thing. Turbulence which will down a Pa28 is another matter.
There's no mention of any distress message being picked up, and on any likely frequency, on that day, in that area, I'd expect any transmission to be heard by someone, even if from a very low altitude.
I'd expect there would be a radar track for most of the flight, but that won't be public until the accident report is issued.
As regards being able to glide to shore, ditching might be a preferred option with engine failure, but not 2 miles offshore.

Looking at google earth the shorelines on each side of the channel appear to have favorable spots to put down, unless of course they could not see either the beaches or water, nor had a moving map to guide them to within close proximity of the shoreline.

Agreed about turbulence- I think the thread drifted a bit off topic earlier.


However, not sure I agree with you on ditching, even near the shore. I have thought for many years that landing on dry land, especially if semi-prepared like forest tracks, under control is preferable. The gliding guys at Oban reckoned you would usually crawl away from it even if the wings are knocked off by the trees! On the other hand, you could make a perfect ditching and still drown or, more likely, die from hypothermia. Discuss?

Got caught on the lee side of mountains in Wales once, in fairly strong westerly winds. V poor planning on my part.

Struggled to keep shiny side up and only just managed to maintain altitude at full power. Frightening experience and lesson learnt.

Parson, you'll note from my post that even with good planning and almost zero reported local surface wind, severe turbulence can still get you if you fly downwind of mountains.

And it can be more subtle than that. I was once doing a biennial check out of Liverpool (usually done with an aeros instructor in our Chippy, but I'd left it too late and was doing it in a PA38 from the Liverpool club). Not being aerobatic, I'd opted to spend the hour in the Tommy on instrument revision and the instructor (not having screens) put charts up to block the outside view.

At one point I had cruise power set, and cruise attitude. Speed was correct on the ASI but we were going down. I pointed this out to the instructor and he couldn't explain it. I moved the chart for a look upwind..... we were downwind of a considerable Welsh hill!

Sorry to continue the slight thread drift but I think it's worth saying...

Mountain flying
 

Sympathy to the families of those involved.
Having flown from Feschiebridge and Aboyne in gliders I learned how unpredictable the conditions can be, outwardly benign on the airfield can be viscous a few miles away a few thousand feet higher. Gliding has the advantage of being mainly club based where pilots are briefed comprehensively by a local expert, often the CFI who knows where the dangerous conditions are likely to be that day.
Gliders are usually looking for Wave to climb but if you get it wrong and fall into the rotor you need to get out fast, with altitude no harm done but lower down deadly, never underestimate changing conditions close to any hills.

I recall doing an instructors course at Dundee many moons ago. I was north of Errol, full flap, idle power and side slipping and the little C152 remained in level flight, never having been in a glider before I'd seen nothing like it. We spun it to get down in the end.

Last Friday I went for an anti clockwise flight round the Glasgow zone in a 6 mph north westerly and experienced some of the most uncomfortable turbulence I have felt in 30 years of flying.On the return to Strathaven I joined dead side at 1750 qfe for a 27 rt hand crosswind join to find the low level wind favoured an easterly landing and announced my intention to join cross wind for 09 and turned 180 to join the circuit dead side for 09.in the turn I suddenly found the aircraft turning in a spiral dive to the left (initial thought wow what the f**k .)I lost 200ft during this and did have a small brown trouser moment.On finals at 400 ft 1/2 mile out with full flaps and idle (all looking good) I suddenly went up 1000 ft a minute and just commenced a side slip when the bottom fell out the market and went back down 1000 ft a minute.I was stunned that in seemingly calm conditions we can be lulled into a false sense of security.lesson learnt is if my ex instructor has decided not to fly due to turbulence he felt then follow his lead and leave the aircraft in the hangar.No harm done this time but I learned something.

If you're flying out of Strathaven you should be well used to getting bumped and thrown around and that's before you in the air😀

I know a couple of glider pilots who were doing some sort of licence conversion 3-4 years ago. The instructor was puzzled when they encountered what you describe, he had no idea what was going on. They explained, the penny gradually dropped with him that he had met the reverse not long before. I was astonished that an instructor flying from somewhere that gets regular mountain wave didn't recognise it.

PS if you'd flown downwind into the sink that would have got you down as well!

PS if you'd flown downwind into the sink that would have got you down as well!

PDQ and another WTF moment. First was when you couldn't go down; swiftly followed by not being able to go up.

Evening guys, I,m not a pilot and in general I,m fairly ignorant with regard to most things around PPL, however this crash involved my two friends who I'd spent 4 days with including climbing Ben Nevis. The reason for me joining your forum and posting on here is I'd like to know how long the AAIB may take to discover the cause and will they make their findings public ? Also they have located the main body of the plane around 40 metres down, will they recover it ? Bearing in mind the aircraft had only flown around 60 miles in 30 minutes it was full of fuel, would that pose a contamination risk to wildlife ?? Sorry for so many questions, all responses gratefully received thank you.