Cardiff City Footballer Feared Missing after aircraft disappeared near Channel Island
Given the weather, would we not have expected an appropriately qualified pilot to file an IFR flight plan? Skimming back through this thread, I cannot see evidence of whether or not that was done, but the fact that he was messing around at 2,500' over water strongly suggests to me (with zero personal experience) that he was trying (hoping) for VFR all the way. That in turn says that pilot capability was by far the biggest risk factor at the start of this flight, the fact that it was single engine over water would seem to be a very minor concern in comparison. That was a damned nice plane! I am sure I will never get to fly anything like that!
TRUTHSEEKER1 It is always safer for a VFR-only pilot to remain VMC - that is obvious and doesn't need asking.
The issue in this case is that, over water and under overcast - it is possible/probable that there was zero exterior reference. Thus, whilst legally VMC, of no useful purpose.
A friend of mine (completely legally) teaches IMC flying in VFR only aircraft. He achieves this by going out over the Canadian prairie on overcast nights - no stars, no ground illumination. VMC conditions (so flight is legal) but you might as well paint the windscreen with black paint for all you can see through it...
The issue in this case is that, over water and under overcast - it is possible/probable that there was zero exterior reference. Thus, whilst legally VMC, of no useful purpose.
A friend of mine (completely legally) teaches IMC flying in VFR only aircraft. He achieves this by going out over the Canadian prairie on overcast nights - no stars, no ground illumination. VMC conditions (so flight is legal) but you might as well paint the windscreen with black paint for all you can see through it...
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Plenty of pilots with commercial licenses and IR's doing dodgy charter, it's the AOC certificate the passengers need to see. While a commercial license (or ATPL) assures a certain level of knowledge and training the full legal protection is given by the AOC, and on an AOC flight if you aren't at least a CPL you're not sitting in the pilot's seat. I have no doubt the pilots of the Eclipse that flew Sala to Cardiff were commercially licensed, what I doubt is that it was an AOC flight, and therefore, probably as legally dubious as the PA46 flight.
I fly for an AOC, most of the brokers who use us have our AOC certificate and insurance on file, direct customers get a copies with their written charter agreement. That certificate takes some getting, is very easy to lose, is expensive, has specifically named personnel as post holders, all of whom qualify for the positions they hold and are accountable in law. The pilots operate to an accepted Operations Manual, and their duty and training records are subject to both internal and external audit, along with SMS, mandatory maintenance contracts, and sometimes, at our expense we are audited by organisations such as Wyvern, who audit us on behalf of large corporations and key man insurers to ensure we are up to snuff.
Basically the same procedures and licensing processes as BA, Virgin, EasyJet, Tui, FlyBe and all the rest, but in a company a fraction of the size. I'm one of the post holders and sometimes when I'm drowning in paperwork, regulated to a high shine I see the "illegal" operators around and have to fight back a huge temptation to beat the pilots to death with the Ops Manual. What stops me is that a criminal record would make AOC employment a touch difficult, and I couldn't drop my standards to where those pilots are.
SND
I fly for an AOC, most of the brokers who use us have our AOC certificate and insurance on file, direct customers get a copies with their written charter agreement. That certificate takes some getting, is very easy to lose, is expensive, has specifically named personnel as post holders, all of whom qualify for the positions they hold and are accountable in law. The pilots operate to an accepted Operations Manual, and their duty and training records are subject to both internal and external audit, along with SMS, mandatory maintenance contracts, and sometimes, at our expense we are audited by organisations such as Wyvern, who audit us on behalf of large corporations and key man insurers to ensure we are up to snuff.
Basically the same procedures and licensing processes as BA, Virgin, EasyJet, Tui, FlyBe and all the rest, but in a company a fraction of the size. I'm one of the post holders and sometimes when I'm drowning in paperwork, regulated to a high shine I see the "illegal" operators around and have to fight back a huge temptation to beat the pilots to death with the Ops Manual. What stops me is that a criminal record would make AOC employment a touch difficult, and I couldn't drop my standards to where those pilots are.
SND
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TRUTHSEEKER1 It is always safer for a VFR-only pilot to remain VMC - that is obvious and doesn't need asking.
The issue in this case is that, over water and under overcast - it is possible/probable that there was zero exterior reference. Thus, whilst legally VMC, of no useful purpose.
A friend of mine (completely legally) teaches IMC flying in VFR only aircraft. He achieves this by going out over the Canadian prairie on overcast nights - no stars, no ground illumination. VMC conditions (so flight is legal) but you might as well paint the windscreen with black paint for all you can see through it...
The issue in this case is that, over water and under overcast - it is possible/probable that there was zero exterior reference. Thus, whilst legally VMC, of no useful purpose.
A friend of mine (completely legally) teaches IMC flying in VFR only aircraft. He achieves this by going out over the Canadian prairie on overcast nights - no stars, no ground illumination. VMC conditions (so flight is legal) but you might as well paint the windscreen with black paint for all you can see through it...
Now it has been confirmed that Dave Ibbotson has/had an expired IMCr with no Instrument flying experience other than occasional cloud contact when parachute dropping which is legally a VFR only activity I will readdress the question : " Would you think it is safer for a EXPIRED IMCr pilot to go up into IMC than try to stay VFR below the crud? " Now on supposition it is rumoured that the de-ice systems on N264DB was U/S so this flight didn't have that option to climb, the question asked is based on a fully serviceable aircraft being capable of FIKI.
Quite a few VFR pilots get caught out by unforeseen weather, so there is a real chance that some readers on here will have firsthand experience of this.......some have got away with it and live to tell the tale & some haven't.
At this juncture it would be best if we all stick to the subject in hand.
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The issue in this case is that, over water and under overcast - it is possible/probable that there was zero exterior reference. Thus, whilst legally VMC, of no useful purpose.
The regulations have a well known gap when it comes to night flying; It is possible (and certain over long stretches of water) that in night VMC conditions, there will be little or no visual reference from the surface. Arguably, the requirement for VFR flight to maintain visual contact with the surface would be hard to prove sometimes - yeah, I know it's down there, but I can't actually see it. Is that actually flight in VMC? Not really.
Let alone the poor weather conditions associated with this accident, the flight would still have been challenged even on a clear night. JFK Jr. had an accident in very clear conditions over water at night as a result of loss of situational awareness. There was "get there itis" involved, and low experience in a well capable airplane. Only pilot decision making improvements will make this better. In the mean time, eagerness to provide a VFR transportation service in other than clear day conditions should be viewed with great skepticism.
TRUTHSEEKER1 Your question referred to 'a VFR pilot', if you had written 'Dave Ibbotson" then that is a different question with a potentially different answer. Your updated question now refers to 'EXPIRED IMCr pilot' - is that your question, or are you actually (again?) asking about Dave Ibbotson specifically?
There are more twists and turns to this story.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...las-plane.html
A highly experienced pilot chartered by football agent Willie McKay to fly new Emiliano Sala from France to Wales drafted in a 'rusty' part-time replacement for the job, it was revealed today.
The Piper Malibu carrying Cardiff City's new £15million signing vanished over the Channel Islands on Monday January 21 after hitting bad weather en route to Wales from France.
Mr McKay wanted his usual pilot David Henderson, 60, to carry the Argentinian striker to Britain but he drafted in David Ibbotson, 59, after asking him: 'Do you want to spend a weekend in Nantes?'
Mr Ibbotson, a boiler engineer and part-time pilot, told a friend he was 'a bit rusty' with the instruments of the 35-year-old aircraft and it did not have the licence to carry paying passengers.
Describing the time period since, Mr McKay, a mega-agent renowned for his contacts in France, told l'Equipe sports newspaper that it has 'been an absolute nightmare for us.'
He said that if he had not allowed Sala to return to his old club, Nantes, to say goodbye to his former teammates and put his beloved dog Nala in kennels 'he would still be with us'.
Cardiff offered him a commercial flight for the trip, but Mr McKay offered him a private plane 'for free'.
Mr Ibboston, who was known to have financial problems, is said to have told Mr Henderson that he had lost his credit card.
This led to Mr Henderson having to pay for Mr Ibbotson's hotel in France, and for the flight itself.
Mr Henderson's details were accordingly given to officials at Nantes-Atlantique airport, leading to initial fears that he had been piloting the doomed flight.
'Since it was Henderson's bank card, everyone thought he was on the plane,' said Willie McKay.
The Piper Malibu carrying Cardiff City's new £15million signing vanished over the Channel Islands on Monday January 21 after hitting bad weather en route to Wales from France.
Mr McKay wanted his usual pilot David Henderson, 60, to carry the Argentinian striker to Britain but he drafted in David Ibbotson, 59, after asking him: 'Do you want to spend a weekend in Nantes?'
Mr Ibbotson, a boiler engineer and part-time pilot, told a friend he was 'a bit rusty' with the instruments of the 35-year-old aircraft and it did not have the licence to carry paying passengers.
Describing the time period since, Mr McKay, a mega-agent renowned for his contacts in France, told l'Equipe sports newspaper that it has 'been an absolute nightmare for us.'
He said that if he had not allowed Sala to return to his old club, Nantes, to say goodbye to his former teammates and put his beloved dog Nala in kennels 'he would still be with us'.
Cardiff offered him a commercial flight for the trip, but Mr McKay offered him a private plane 'for free'.
Mr Ibboston, who was known to have financial problems, is said to have told Mr Henderson that he had lost his credit card.
This led to Mr Henderson having to pay for Mr Ibbotson's hotel in France, and for the flight itself.
Mr Henderson's details were accordingly given to officials at Nantes-Atlantique airport, leading to initial fears that he had been piloting the doomed flight.
'Since it was Henderson's bank card, everyone thought he was on the plane,' said Willie McKay.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...las-plane.html
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TRUTHSEEKER1 Your question referred to 'a VFR pilot', if you had written 'Dave Ibbotson" then that is a different question with a potentially different answer. Your updated question now refers to 'EXPIRED IMCr pilot' - is that your question, or are you actually (again?) asking about Dave Ibbotson specifically?
As has been shown 'everyone' is learning from this bulletin board, you have learnt that some of your flights in Canada could be deemed illegal ( thankfully nobody has to investigate those flights ) I learnt that my ears play tricks on me overwater because I become more adept to sounds
As this is an ongoing investigation I am led to believe that there is going to be a hell of a lot of explaining to do about why an IFR FPL was filed & then changed to a VFR FPL?
There is also a lot of confusion over how competent airport officials seem to think the paperwork of Dave Henderson was submitted for checking when he claims he hasn't been to Nantes in the last year?
We can all read between the lines, nobody can really explain that at this time but it seems that the CAA & AAIB have insight into what they think is the answer to that conundrum.
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The explanations start to get ridiculous
1) Is it being suggested that David Ibbotson was only flying for expenses trying to suggest that the flight was legal?
2) Would the flight had been legal even if the selected pilot, David Henderson, had been the pilot?
3) Is it suggested that this isn’t illegal public transport because David Henderson is his personal pilot flying his personal aircraft?
4) Does the statement that he had no part in the selection of the pilot or the aircraft depend on him losing control of David Henderson who started making his own decisions?
5) Did this loss of control also occur on the other occasions that David Ibbotson is reported to have flown people connected to football?
1) Is it being suggested that David Ibbotson was only flying for expenses trying to suggest that the flight was legal?
2) Would the flight had been legal even if the selected pilot, David Henderson, had been the pilot?
3) Is it suggested that this isn’t illegal public transport because David Henderson is his personal pilot flying his personal aircraft?
4) Does the statement that he had no part in the selection of the pilot or the aircraft depend on him losing control of David Henderson who started making his own decisions?
5) Did this loss of control also occur on the other occasions that David Ibbotson is reported to have flown people connected to football?
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This looks like the biggest cover up ever ! So if we break it down paragraph by paragraph it might get a bit more clarity.
A highly experienced pilot chartered by football agent Willie McKay to fly new Emiliano Sala from France to Wales drafted in a 'rusty' part-time replacement for the job, it was revealed today.
Willie McKay chartered David Henderson to do the flights with Emiliano Sala onboard, but David Henderson subcontracted the flights to Dave Ibbotson ( the buck stops with David Henderson )
The Piper Malibu carrying Cardiff City's new £15million signing vanished over the Channel Islands on Monday January 21 after hitting bad weather en route to Wales from France.
David Henderson is reported as being Instrument Rated so capable of making such a flight & contracted to conduct the flights but he elected to put a non instrument rated pilot in the aircraft who was incapable of completing such a flight. ( the buck stops with David Henderson )
Mr McKay wanted his usual pilot David Henderson, 60, to carry the Argentinian striker to Britain but he drafted in David Ibbotson, 59, after asking him: 'Do you want to spend a weekend in Nantes?'
The McKays employ David Henderson regularly by reference to 'usual pilot' but now they must be asking themselves how many David Henderson's have actually flown on their behalf ( I assume not every flight has a McKay onboard so how would they know who was the pilot )
Mr Ibbotson, a boiler engineer and part-time pilot, told a friend he was 'a bit rusty' with the instruments of the 35-year-old aircraft and it did not have the licence to carry paying passengers.
Still it remains unanswered why David Henderson's ID was shown at Nantes Airport? it still remains unexplained why an IFR Flightplan was filed
Describing the time period since, Mr McKay, a mega-agent renowned for his contacts in France, told l'Equipe sports newspaper that it has 'been an absolute nightmare for us.'
He said that if he had not allowed Sala to return to his old club, Nantes, to say goodbye to his former teammates and put his beloved dog Nala in kennels 'he would still be with us'.
Not sure what control McKay has/had to tell a grown man that he cannot go to Nantes to say " goodbye" to his mates & bow wow.
Cardiff offered him a commercial flight for the trip, but Mr McKay offered him a private plane 'for free'.
There is no such thing as a 'free trip' someone paid someone.
Mr Ibboston, who was known to have financial problems, is said to have told Mr Henderson that he had lost his credit card.
That may be true but it doesn't explain personal ID documents being checked?
This led to Mr Henderson having to pay for Mr Ibbotson's hotel in France, and for the flight itself.
That may be true but it doesn't explain Dave Henderson's personal ID documents being shown everywhere?
Mr Henderson's details were accordingly given to officials at Nantes-Atlantique airport, leading to initial fears that he had been piloting the doomed flight.
That may be true but it doesn't explain Dave Henderson's personal ID documents being checked at the airport as well as Dave Ibbotson's?
'Since it was Henderson's bank card, everyone thought he was on the plane,' said Willie McKay.
I smell a festering turd here.
A highly experienced pilot chartered by football agent Willie McKay to fly new Emiliano Sala from France to Wales drafted in a 'rusty' part-time replacement for the job, it was revealed today.
Willie McKay chartered David Henderson to do the flights with Emiliano Sala onboard, but David Henderson subcontracted the flights to Dave Ibbotson ( the buck stops with David Henderson )
The Piper Malibu carrying Cardiff City's new £15million signing vanished over the Channel Islands on Monday January 21 after hitting bad weather en route to Wales from France.
David Henderson is reported as being Instrument Rated so capable of making such a flight & contracted to conduct the flights but he elected to put a non instrument rated pilot in the aircraft who was incapable of completing such a flight. ( the buck stops with David Henderson )
Mr McKay wanted his usual pilot David Henderson, 60, to carry the Argentinian striker to Britain but he drafted in David Ibbotson, 59, after asking him: 'Do you want to spend a weekend in Nantes?'
The McKays employ David Henderson regularly by reference to 'usual pilot' but now they must be asking themselves how many David Henderson's have actually flown on their behalf ( I assume not every flight has a McKay onboard so how would they know who was the pilot )
Mr Ibbotson, a boiler engineer and part-time pilot, told a friend he was 'a bit rusty' with the instruments of the 35-year-old aircraft and it did not have the licence to carry paying passengers.
Still it remains unanswered why David Henderson's ID was shown at Nantes Airport? it still remains unexplained why an IFR Flightplan was filed
Describing the time period since, Mr McKay, a mega-agent renowned for his contacts in France, told l'Equipe sports newspaper that it has 'been an absolute nightmare for us.'
He said that if he had not allowed Sala to return to his old club, Nantes, to say goodbye to his former teammates and put his beloved dog Nala in kennels 'he would still be with us'.
Not sure what control McKay has/had to tell a grown man that he cannot go to Nantes to say " goodbye" to his mates & bow wow.
Cardiff offered him a commercial flight for the trip, but Mr McKay offered him a private plane 'for free'.
There is no such thing as a 'free trip' someone paid someone.
Mr Ibboston, who was known to have financial problems, is said to have told Mr Henderson that he had lost his credit card.
That may be true but it doesn't explain personal ID documents being checked?
This led to Mr Henderson having to pay for Mr Ibbotson's hotel in France, and for the flight itself.
That may be true but it doesn't explain Dave Henderson's personal ID documents being shown everywhere?
Mr Henderson's details were accordingly given to officials at Nantes-Atlantique airport, leading to initial fears that he had been piloting the doomed flight.
That may be true but it doesn't explain Dave Henderson's personal ID documents being checked at the airport as well as Dave Ibbotson's?
'Since it was Henderson's bank card, everyone thought he was on the plane,' said Willie McKay.
I smell a festering turd here.
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The explanations start to get ridiculous
1) Is it being suggested that David Ibbotson was only flying for expenses trying to suggest that the flight was legal?
2) Would the flight had been legal even if the selected pilot, David Henderson, had been the pilot?
3) Is it suggested that this isn’t illegal public transport because David Henderson is his personal pilot flying his personal aircraft?
4) Does the statement that he had no part in the selection of the pilot or the aircraft depend on him losing control of David Henderson who started making his own decisions?
5) Did this loss of control also occur on the other occasions that David Ibbotson is reported to have flown people connected to football?
1) Is it being suggested that David Ibbotson was only flying for expenses trying to suggest that the flight was legal?
2) Would the flight had been legal even if the selected pilot, David Henderson, had been the pilot?
3) Is it suggested that this isn’t illegal public transport because David Henderson is his personal pilot flying his personal aircraft?
4) Does the statement that he had no part in the selection of the pilot or the aircraft depend on him losing control of David Henderson who started making his own decisions?
5) Did this loss of control also occur on the other occasions that David Ibbotson is reported to have flown people connected to football?
(A2) The chances are that the flight would have been legal if Dave Henderson was the PIC, it really depends on who owns the aircraft or who loaned it to WMcK & DH?
(A3) If the Malibu belonged to WMcK or family & DH is his personal pilot it would most likely be deemed a legal flight.
(A4) It would seem there is a lot of confusion as WMcK has said DH is his personal pilot, but of what aircraft is DH the personal pilot if WMcK denies owning any aircraft? It will be very irrational if N264DB is anyway connected to WMcK that he would say he had no part in the selection of the pilot or the aircraft when admitted he employed DH to fly Emiliano Sala back & forth?
(A5) It has not yet been proven that Dave Ibbotson has flown other footballers previously, it might have been DH who flew them seeing as he is purported to be WMcK's personal pilot.
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I am beginning to think "Truthseeker" is looking for a conspiracy where none exists. This is a forum, I thought, for pilots to discuss topical matters.
Here's what I understand and I don't think this is in question. Dave Ibbotson had flown a number of ferry flights. Including via Goose Bay/ Narsarsuaq - not a route for the faint hearted or inexperienced, forgetting the ticket in his hand for a moment. Yes, I know that is relevant but the ticket isn't the skill. I know an ex CFI who no longer flies but I'd have him sat next to me in preference to anyone else if I needed assistance on a flight.
There's been a lot of talk about SEP flying over the Channel. I do it a lot myself. Sometimes in rubbish weather sometimes not. According to all the stats I can find, SEP is pretty safe with (before this) 3 fatalities in 50 years between Channel Islands and UK (Wikipedia). I was in Alderney the day before and weather was not wonderful. Let's drop all the SEP part of the conversation.
Fact: Pilot was very low at night in poor viz with an Instrument approach inevitable at Cardiff. Not sure what the freeze level was but almost certainly around 3,000 feet. From Casquets, you'd expect to glide to Alderney coast from 2,300 feet, although probably not with heavy ice build up.
If this was a car crash, we'd be talking about bad luck or bad judgement or both. I'm afraid no matter what the rating of the Pilot, he self evidently made some poor choices and left a minimal margin for error. He either then got bad luck which often follows bad judgement or some of the following airframe icing (highly likely)/ Engine Failure or power loss/ Possible pilot incapacitation/ Leans or a combination of all three. That is not going to end well at any stage of a flight over land or sea.
Most of us would have stayed put that night and not ventured on that route in that aircraft at that time. And that's why the accident stats are as good as they are.
This is a very very sad tale of confidence exceeding capability.
Here's what I understand and I don't think this is in question. Dave Ibbotson had flown a number of ferry flights. Including via Goose Bay/ Narsarsuaq - not a route for the faint hearted or inexperienced, forgetting the ticket in his hand for a moment. Yes, I know that is relevant but the ticket isn't the skill. I know an ex CFI who no longer flies but I'd have him sat next to me in preference to anyone else if I needed assistance on a flight.
There's been a lot of talk about SEP flying over the Channel. I do it a lot myself. Sometimes in rubbish weather sometimes not. According to all the stats I can find, SEP is pretty safe with (before this) 3 fatalities in 50 years between Channel Islands and UK (Wikipedia). I was in Alderney the day before and weather was not wonderful. Let's drop all the SEP part of the conversation.
Fact: Pilot was very low at night in poor viz with an Instrument approach inevitable at Cardiff. Not sure what the freeze level was but almost certainly around 3,000 feet. From Casquets, you'd expect to glide to Alderney coast from 2,300 feet, although probably not with heavy ice build up.
If this was a car crash, we'd be talking about bad luck or bad judgement or both. I'm afraid no matter what the rating of the Pilot, he self evidently made some poor choices and left a minimal margin for error. He either then got bad luck which often follows bad judgement or some of the following airframe icing (highly likely)/ Engine Failure or power loss/ Possible pilot incapacitation/ Leans or a combination of all three. That is not going to end well at any stage of a flight over land or sea.
Most of us would have stayed put that night and not ventured on that route in that aircraft at that time. And that's why the accident stats are as good as they are.
This is a very very sad tale of confidence exceeding capability.
Lots of stuff coming out a bit at a time, some of it may not be accurate but what is pretty clear is that the whole thing stinks to hi-heaven and some pretty serious investigation needs to be initiated into the grey world. Another example of how instant communications and neo-liberal economic principles have changed things and not for the better.
Avoid imitations
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EASA has brought us many more rules, making things far more difficult (for those legally plying their trade) to make a living.
However, it seems to have left some large loopholes through lack of enforcement and thus made it easier for those wanting to circumvent both the rules and common sense.
However, it seems to have left some large loopholes through lack of enforcement and thus made it easier for those wanting to circumvent both the rules and common sense.
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EASA has brought us many more rules, making things far more difficult (for those legally plying their trade) to make a living.
However, it seems to have left some large loopholes through lack of enforcement and thus made it easier for those wanting to circumvent both the rules and common sense.
However, it seems to have left some large loopholes through lack of enforcement and thus made it easier for those wanting to circumvent both the rules and common sense.
If something goes wrong on a private flight , it is always the PIC who is responsible, not the owner of the aircraft or "the usual pilot" .
the decision to fly VFR in IMC, or to file an IFR flight plan when you are not qualified lays only with the PIC and nobody else.
Now if you can prove money change hands and it was a commercial operation , there it is a very different story.
Surely still wouldn't have been legal if Henderson had flown it due to the FAA's strict rule of exactly equal share of costs (Sala told flight was 'free' to him), pilot put up in hotac at someone else's expense (valuable consideration/expenses) and inability to prove travel was for a common purpose.
Even if Mc Kay does own the aircraft and Henderson is his pilot it could only be a legal corporate flight if Henderson flew it, which he did not. Does Henderson have a FAA licence? Anyhoo, what of the status of the outbound leg on the Eclipse? Every chance that it was just as dodgy as the accident flight.
Finaly, how - just how did Henderson's id get checked at Nantes? We've been told by Ffrench authorities that three peoples' id were whecked for the flight but only 2 flew. This must be a significant part of the strory.
Sala's girlfriend's remark about the football mafia is telling too - sounds very much like she's seen and heard things from people she dislikes and mistrusts intensely and she believes them involved in htis 'charter". I wonder who that could possibly be?
Even if Mc Kay does own the aircraft and Henderson is his pilot it could only be a legal corporate flight if Henderson flew it, which he did not. Does Henderson have a FAA licence? Anyhoo, what of the status of the outbound leg on the Eclipse? Every chance that it was just as dodgy as the accident flight.
Finaly, how - just how did Henderson's id get checked at Nantes? We've been told by Ffrench authorities that three peoples' id were whecked for the flight but only 2 flew. This must be a significant part of the strory.
Sala's girlfriend's remark about the football mafia is telling too - sounds very much like she's seen and heard things from people she dislikes and mistrusts intensely and she believes them involved in htis 'charter". I wonder who that could possibly be?
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I am beginning to think "Truthseeker" is looking for a conspiracy where none exists. This is a forum, I thought, for pilots to discuss topical matters.
Here's what I understand and I don't think this is in question. Dave Ibbotson had flown a number of ferry flights. Including via Goose Bay/ Narsarsuaq - not a route for the faint hearted or inexperienced, forgetting the ticket in his hand for a moment. Yes, I know that is relevant but the ticket isn't the skill. I know an ex CFI who no longer flies but I'd have him sat next to me in preference to anyone else if I needed assistance on a flight.
There's been a lot of talk about SEP flying over the Channel. I do it a lot myself. Sometimes in rubbish weather sometimes not. According to all the stats I can find, SEP is pretty safe with (before this) 3 fatalities in 50 years between Channel Islands and UK (Wikipedia). I was in Alderney the day before and weather was not wonderful. Let's drop all the SEP part of the conversation.
Fact: Pilot was very low at night in poor viz with an Instrument approach inevitable at Cardiff. Not sure what the freeze level was but almost certainly around 3,000 feet. From Casquets, you'd expect to glide to Alderney coast from 2,300 feet, although probably not with heavy ice build up.
If this was a car crash, we'd be talking about bad luck or bad judgement or both. I'm afraid no matter what the rating of the Pilot, he self evidently made some poor choices and left a minimal margin for error. He either then got bad luck which often follows bad judgement or some of the following airframe icing (highly likely)/ Engine Failure or power loss/ Possible pilot incapacitation/ Leans or a combination of all three. That is not going to end well at any stage of a flight over land or sea.
Most of us would have stayed put that night and not ventured on that route in that aircraft at that time. And that's why the accident stats are as good as they are.
This is a very very sad tale of confidence exceeding capability.
Here's what I understand and I don't think this is in question. Dave Ibbotson had flown a number of ferry flights. Including via Goose Bay/ Narsarsuaq - not a route for the faint hearted or inexperienced, forgetting the ticket in his hand for a moment. Yes, I know that is relevant but the ticket isn't the skill. I know an ex CFI who no longer flies but I'd have him sat next to me in preference to anyone else if I needed assistance on a flight.
There's been a lot of talk about SEP flying over the Channel. I do it a lot myself. Sometimes in rubbish weather sometimes not. According to all the stats I can find, SEP is pretty safe with (before this) 3 fatalities in 50 years between Channel Islands and UK (Wikipedia). I was in Alderney the day before and weather was not wonderful. Let's drop all the SEP part of the conversation.
Fact: Pilot was very low at night in poor viz with an Instrument approach inevitable at Cardiff. Not sure what the freeze level was but almost certainly around 3,000 feet. From Casquets, you'd expect to glide to Alderney coast from 2,300 feet, although probably not with heavy ice build up.
If this was a car crash, we'd be talking about bad luck or bad judgement or both. I'm afraid no matter what the rating of the Pilot, he self evidently made some poor choices and left a minimal margin for error. He either then got bad luck which often follows bad judgement or some of the following airframe icing (highly likely)/ Engine Failure or power loss/ Possible pilot incapacitation/ Leans or a combination of all three. That is not going to end well at any stage of a flight over land or sea.
Most of us would have stayed put that night and not ventured on that route in that aircraft at that time. And that's why the accident stats are as good as they are.
This is a very very sad tale of confidence exceeding capability.
What we do have in the public domain now is a colour blind non instrument rated pilot flying at night in IMC which does certainly agree with your assessment of confidence exceeding ability.