Ok – lets look at the options.
Peel and the Masterplan – basically “sweating the assets” or making the whole site work. Some people seem to regard Peel as the work of the devil, and oft quote Sheffield City as an example why, but I prefer to look at the Liverpool example. Underused sprawling wasteland transformed into a modern airport with extensive non-aviation usage of surplus land. Trust me, as somebody who remembers what it was like before the whole area has been transformed. Sounds good, doesn’t it?
Big question is why hasn’t it happened already if the DTVA site is so promising? The need to sell land for housing to fund the development of the rest of the site has always sounded a bit weak to me. As other posters remind us, Peel aren’t short of a bob or two and aren’t shy on investing it when the see an opportunity. This suggests to me that the business case for the rest of the site must be quite weak.
Other issues with the Masterplan? No problem with the housing as such but putting it where it is would seem to constrain the future development of the terminal and other aviation activity, so there’s a question mark there.
So – you’ve got the money from the housing, what are you going to do with it? Attract airlines? Who?
Business flights - see my previous response at #155 around the scope for business flights. So what else?
- IT - TOM operate single a/c bases at comparable airports such as ABZ, NWI and EXT but DTVA don’t seem to think that is the way to make money. TCX don’t seem interested in smaller airports.
- LCC – nobody has jumped into Globespans shoes and the major players seem to well established in the North and South of the region (trying to avoid mentioning NCL and LBA!), so you would be looking at a left field player like Blue Air out of Liverpool (a Peel airport). The only other alternative would seem to a CWL/DSA type deal with flyBe – again something Peel are familiar with, but if it was going to happen wouldn’t it have happened by now?
- Freight - ideally you’d be tempting a UPS/DHL/FedEx (Amazon?) to set up a hub type operation on the southside, but unless it's just a transshipment point, isn't MME in the wrong place as little local demand - and isn’t Finningley far better placed? More likely is some sort of Carlisle logistics park with just a tenuous aviation link (is there still the planning constraints to aviation related activity?)
So if not airlines, what other aviation activity
- Corporate hangars etc. The Northeast isn’t exactly awash with corporate jet operators looking for a home, so where’s the business coming from? Hangarage for medium/long stay visitors doesn’t seem like a great earner.
- Painting/maintenance/scrapping on the southside – if so what? With so much competition you'd probably have to build somebody a facility and pay them to come in. Sycamore might have been a hope but their focus seems to be elsewhere.
And if not the Peel Masterplan – what else? The Mayor? Same questions as before – has he got the money, if he has is an airport the sort of thing he should be spending it on, and what would he do different?
Other operators – who’s out there buying regional airports?
- Scottish Govt/Welsh Govt? seems unlikely….
- AMP have just bought Leeds and have a significant shareholding in NCL, so again, unlikely.
- The Rigby Group own EXT, NWI, etc. and are rumourred to be looking at BOH – similar airports, so is he a possibility?
But no matter who owns the airport, you come back to the same points - the airport is in a relatively poor, relatively small region with two larger, well-established rivals 50/60 miles away