What we are seeing is just the natural progression of a company:
- Start up.
- Early problems.
- Merger with other start ups.
- Expansion (post war).
- Nationalisation so they know that they are 'king'.
- Big expansion as they get into their stride.
- Some bad choices but the times are on their side so expansion continues.
- Privatisation works well so they REALLY know they are king.
- They buy up or squeeze out the competition, even though they have to go to court, they survive.
- Arrogance sets in.
- Bad choices are covered by the overall expansion of the era.
- Competition starts to bite - and they don't know what to do.
- They try to follow the competition.
- Complacency ...
By this time they are already over their peak - but they don't know it yet. They have been successful for so long - obviously they are doing things right. Usually - at this point - the end is only a matter of time. They are like 'Road Runner' who has run off the edge of the cliff - and just don't realise that their wheels are spinning in mid air ...
In my view, their peak was about 2005 (the date can be argued in many directions but I pick that as a starting point) after this, it is probably all over but they have not realised it and only something astounding can save them..
If you want to look at other companies that have recently followed this path (as all corporates do) consider (not all stages apply, of course as I have angled this to the BA path):
- Woolworths
- Marks & Spencer
- Most British car and motorcycle companies
- All political parties
- Large department store chains
- PanAm
- TransWorldAirlines
- Alitalia
- The United Kingdom
- [fill in the blanks]