Yep, what he said.
Firstly, the mythical ‘pilot shortage.’
For what it’s worth, there has never been - and will never be - a shortage of people who want to be pilots. Never, ever, ever. Ever. Sometimes, when the job market is really good (as it has been for the last 2-3 years) industry expansion means there can be a shortage of experienced commercial pilots to fill positions where experience is required. That is very different to a shortage of wannabes. True, recruitment further up the ladder ‘trickles down’ and results in openings for newly qualified pilots, but I say again – there is never a shortage of people chasing the dream.
Secondly, recruitment cycles.
This industry is very, very cyclical. I’m old enough to remember Abba the first time round, and off the top of my head I can recall airline recruitment falling off a cliff in 1990 (Gulf War 1), 2001 (the 9/11 terrorist attacks) and 2008 (the global financial crash). That’s an 11 year cycle and a 7 year one. And 2008 was 9 years ago. . . Not so far off HWB’s 10-12 year cycle.
IMHO, timing is by far the most important factor in successfully finding that first job. Qualify when the industry is healthy, like what I did in 2007, and you might wonder what all the fuss is about. (I’m another career changer, and was incredibly lucky to be picked up by an airline within a couple of months of passing my IR). Qualify
after the industry peaks – after airlines stop recruiting, and let alone after one or two go bust and dump hundreds of experienced pilots on the job market – and you will find it very, very difficult to get any sort of job. That includes instructing.
My crystal ball is as bad as anyone’s, but my gut feeling is that we are at, or very close to another industry peak. All it needs is an economic downturn or some global event, and there will be little or no recruitment for several years. Regarding your situation, if you were already committed to training, I’d say qualify as quickly as possible to get your foot in the door. However, if you are thinking about starting out, I would caution that the next downturn may not be far away, and to plan your training to be as flexible as possible. By that, I mean being able to slow down training if necessary to wait for an improvement in the job market.
One final point, your age. There is nothing stopping you getting a commercial job in your mid-forties, however, as HWB says you need to be brutally honest about the earnings potential versus the cost, and calculate whether it works for you and your family. I know more than most that money isn’t everything, but you still need to pay the bills, and you need to be sure that your plan works financially. Highly paid jobs for newly qualified pilots are pretty rare, and although the earning potential rises with experience, it’s much easier to justify the investment for a 30-40 career as opposed to a 20 year one.
I don’t mean any of that to sound negative – just realistic. Having worked in offices for nearly 15 years, flying aeroplanes still beats having a proper job.
