[QUOTE=Tuck Mach;9732949][COLOR=#202020][FONT=Arial] [I]'At the risk of being labelled a pilot-shortage-sceptic.../QUOTE]
Tuck Mach,
Thanks for posting the articles. As a jack leg student of the subject (and no expert by even the loosest definition), I try to read every article I can find.
So far, they all appear to repeat the same fuzzy theme: there's a "shortage", with that word lacking a consensus definition upon which all discussion participants can make their cases. Anecdotal info must be set aside.
While the situation in the USA may be somewhat different from other parts of the world, there appears to be a common issue regardless of geography: lack of hard, independent, objective data about supply & demand. There's no unbiased (lacking economic motivation) central clearinghouse for supply/demand data.
The issue is an incredibly complex puzzle with several moving parts. A static analysis is merely a snapshot and therefore inadequate over time. I'm not sure a dynamic analysis is even possible.
And at some point, in addition to unbiased or even anecdotal data, clairvoyance is required. The world is never far from the next black swan event which can turn the situation from scarcity to surfeit.
As for me, I remain a skeptic.