AF 447 Thread No. 12

[Machinbird]

Another reference-Bruce Tognazzini on Panic

Bruce Tognazzini wrote this blog on panic some time ago. His specialty is software design however he is a pilot and diver as well.
Panic! How it Works and What To Do About It
Suggest you follow the link before reading the rest of this paragraph.

This particular paragraph explains what I believe happened to the crew of AF447 right at the beginning of the event:

The natural role of the anxiety leading to panic appears to be to guide us toward immediate evasive action, be it flight or fight. Panic ensues when we are unable to formulate an effective evasive action, we choose the wrong evasive action, the evasive action is ineffective, or the evasive action goes terribly wrong in ways we do not understand.

From this, we see that development of the panic state is a two step process.

1. Activation of the Fight or Flight response
2. Inability to formulate/execute an effective evasive action.

This parallels the initial AF447 experience:

1. Autopilot drops out inside a turbulent cell while crossing the ITCZ=Activation of Fight or Flight
2. The aircraft roll response is strongly stimulated by the PF's initial correction and he cannot get it quickly under control as it continues to oscillate in roll= cause for panic.