In demographics is destiny...
Demographics are very predictable but ultimately are a very long term bet. They drive most markets. Pilots are no exception.
Australia has an adversarial industrial relations model and perhaps the best example of it is Qantas. Ian Oldmeadow and the consultants loved JQ. It drove a wedge between staff, created leverage and ultimately would force down terms and conditions.This has been the lot of the Qantas pilot:
The career they hoped for dissolved, they were left with a job
2004: JQ created. By 2016 a 787 command.
2004 a Qantas joiner, maybe could be a 737 FO.
Qantas has spent an enormous amount of energy deriding, talking down the company, the brand and the staff. It was relentless. Staff were locked out in 2011. Even those pilots not involved in wearing red ties.
Qantas staff listened to comulsory 'next step together' days where management told them how clever management were and how transformed Qantas was. Of course they neglected any mention of the price of oil and the accounting trick they pulled writing off their fleet. Those two items alone were nearly every dollar of their 'turnaround profit'
However what Oldmeadow failed to tell his masters is the demographics drives economies.In isolation his model was incredible, but aviation is a global business, pilots are hard to train (they take time and money) and in suceeding in slowing down career paths at Q, they caused pilots to begin the process of wondering where else can i go?
- Aviation qualification are expensive
- The medical criteria required to hold ATPL medical can mean a premature end to a career in an industry known for ups and downs
- Not everyone has the aptitude
- Declining birth rates and aging populations in the western world.
- Aviation growth (as forecast above)
The reality in Australia is Qantas is an employer. The only advantage is living in Australia. The career is long gone. The rushed Qantas 787 deal a low water contract. (shame AIPA didn't read these sort of articles)
Aviation is a global business and Australian carriers are competing for pilots. Qantas et al will never admit it but it is the reality. Less people are learning to fly and those that are flying are aging.
A strategic thinking airline could easily position itself to take advantage of Australia's crop of pilots who are by world standards very good and experienced.
A well remunerated, commuting contract would strike at the heart of Qantas and other airlines' traditional recruiting grounds, leaving Qantas and JQ very exposed...
457 visas and other tricks will control supply to a degree, but ultimately as certain ME carriers are finding out, the market for pilots works two ways and it isn't necessarily in their favour at present.
