Nolimitholdem,
These factors and the others mentioned have not moved in cycles, they have trended steadily to the negative for EK. Hence, I consider them "unprecedented" in that EK has not had to deal with them in such magnitude in the past.
And therein lies the point. Change can be permanent or cyclic. If something changes to an unsustainable state, such as EK is changing now, then a case can be made that it is a cyclic change, or at least that further change to a contrary trend is inevitable, since it cannot continue in a downward trend indefinitely if it is to exist in the longer term.
Some may say that it has been in a downward trend for a very long time, which may well be true, but a cycle or phase can have a very long spanning crest and trough, so it comes down to whether you can be bothered waiting it out. You have been in this game long enough to know what I mean.
I would also take issue with the statement that the root cause of EK's problems are their reactions to external factors. The majority of their current problems are self-inflicted, they've completely lost the plot on how to manage any company's biggest, most valuable resource: their people. The external factors are, as you note, common to all players.
True. Workforce engagement is imperative. As I said in my original post though, it is possible to re-engage them as I have seen in two airlines over the last 15 years. I don't think EK will sink to the lows that some predict.
Point is, the pendulum is not going to swing back magically as you seem hopeful it will. Radical changes would be necessary to effect that, and it's plainly obvious the will/competence/humility is not there to do so. It's a slow-motion train wreck.
I'm not hopeful, as it doesn't make any difference to me - I don't work there. I just think that many guys may be likely to overreact or react emotionally to the recent change in policy and the current working environment. A management shake up would probably be sufficiently radical. Given how often airlines change management, it's more than likely in the next two years. Tim isn't getting any younger and the aftermath of an accident is often a catalyst in closet clean outs.
We lost a LOT of good quality guys here across the pond in 2013. And the airline deserved to lose them, just like EK deserves to lose those leaving now, but had they just stuck it out another 6-12 months, many would've been far better off than joining the bottom of the list somewhere else. Depends what your priorities are I guess, and why you came to the Middle East in the first place.
520.