It won't be scud running Dick. My opinion is that there will instead be a lot of "Unofficial" IFR flying by pilots who are allegedly flying VFR.
Absolutely correct!
I have already had a traffic warning from ATC for an opposite direction VFR aircraft at the same level when I was in cloud.
The guys who are talking about upgrading the fleet and increasing safety do not understand the Australian implementation of ADS-B. Because VFR is exempt, any time that VFR and IFR aircraft mix we have the identical separation and safety condition that exists now. Safety is only as good as the weakest link. If we mandate improvements to IFR and not VFR, then nothing changes.
And the guys talking about ADF being redundant clearly have not been through the list of locations where ADF & VOR remain and/or have not flown very far from major cities. The reality is that after the NAVAID closures, ADF will be more useful to many pilots than VOR. We have very definitely retained ADF in our new panel.
Using a factory refurbished 430W our ADSB upgrade (in progress) will end up costing about $40k. It was complicated by a panel relayout to fit the 430 and some autopilot integration issues and we added a a couple of new things which raised the bill by maybe $5k
The GTN proponents should have a look at the prices they bring on ebay compared with 430's. There is only about $1k difference. For my money, its a better IFR GPS than the GTN. And when the 430 dies, we'll slide in an Avidyne IFD440.
Australia is the only country in the world that is mandating ADS-B for all IFR aircraft at all levels in all classes of airspace.