The perception that there is soon going to be a rapid increase in the rate of upwards movement across the seniority lists. The higher seniority short Haul P2's can see they will soon be in the frame for a move to Long haul if they want it, and many of the Long Haul P2s can see they will soon the frame for a Long Haul Command. Neither group will want to jeopardise that by incurring a freeze on the A320 by taking a Short Haul command......
Pretty much hit's the nail on the head for me too.
I would also add that as the LHS demographic for LH fleets is toward the younger end, thanks in part to the Prestwick cadets, then the older SFO's on the LH fleets wouldn't see a move back from LHS SH to LHS LH in their time.
Lifestyle choices are shaping many more peoples careers now days rather than the 'climb to command' greasy pole (certainly a large majority of those SFO's with previous Command experience!).
