Originally Posted by ETOPS
Take a look at this graphic...
It has bothered me that the run in looked like the start of a barrel roll - which would have had its descending line in front of the crowd - but what was flown was an off airport loop that would have finished with a low flypast.
There is a continuous rate of roll up to to the apex then a wings level pull through.
Originally Posted by Tailspin Turtle
The Planned Maneuver?
After seeing the previously posted graphic, I think I know what was intended. He was flying south down the river toward the sea, pulled up into the vertical and rolled left to change the plane of the loop to the west so that he pulled out in a low pass to the west of the show line. (The crash site more or less matches the location shown in a BBC graphic.) This maneuver keeps the jet pointed toward vacant or less populated areas for the most part.
ETOPS, you are right for the entry point of the maneuver, its general orientation and the point of impact. However, I think you misjudged the rolling movement and that the figure was NOT started as a barrel roll.
I see that the plane entered the loop wing-level and remained wing-level up to shortly after 60° into the loop. A quarter roll took place between 60° and about 80° into the loop. As a result, the plane never flew vertically and the whole quarter leaf figure is distorted ; its main axis is tilted 15-20° to the vertical in a southern direction. The actual apex was thus lower than the apex of the initial loop movement and also lower than the apex of the intended figure which, I believe, is what Tailspin Turtle depicts.
I wouldn't dare to comment on the cause of this early rolling motion but I think it has a direct causal effect on the descending loop aiming below ground level.
Luc