"I can get a good look at a T-Bone steak by sticking my head up a cow's a$$, but I'd rather take the butcher's word for it" -- Big Tom Callahan
Apparently not everyone on the planet feels this way. Despite inputs by the subject matter experts, guess they'll just have to rediscover it for themselves.
Thinking that overlapping/excessive reserve and 'flexible' (a nice word for 'unstable') rosters allows one to mitigate CC and potentially use one's assets more efficiently is our version of getting a good look at the bovine alimentary canal. (n-1) is always less than (n) and this coupled with the loss of the real flexibility of A days (or real A days) results in having LESS resources available for the task at hand. There's no real way to shuffle things to make this not the case. One hole filled in the next hour creates four more tomorrow and sixteen more later in the week. Not to mention the frustration of crew controllers in trying to fix this, and only seeing the harder they work the more unintended consequences happen. Being stuck in 10 mile scope with the added problem of folks not answering their phones when needed prevents any efficient use of crews. We see wild swings in overtime, people timing out, people timing out for training events and either scrambling or going non-current (further exacerbating the problem) and people becoming fatigued and unable to legally fly.
IF this type of system had any chance of working, ATC agencies would simply wait for airplanes to freecall them and not worry about planning tracks and flow into airports. Just let people show up. The US ATC system learned long ago this didn't work very well and started installing software to look several hundred miles out for orderly sequencing of aircraft into airports. Works great. In fact, when this system failed recently the US northeast experienced THEIR version of how WE currently roster--causing massive delays and cancellations. Better to plan for an orderly flow that people can plan around, plan rest around, and actually do.
There's a lot to be said for 'owned' and stable rosters and third generation PBS based systems. Moreover, if people can trade trips and there's a coherent rostering system in place most problems work themselves out by pilots picking up trips and sorting things out amongst themselves. Our throwing the published roster out the window (along WITH RPs) is having predictable effects. Especially when helpfulness in the form of goodwill isn't there.
Efficiency and roster stability go hand in hand; using some reserve assets to backfill bona-fide contingencies. If someone has a printed trip they'll usually fly it. If we get continuous body clock swaps, complete unknown as to what happens next, and what we do does not resemble anything close to what was planned it takes its toll. Not only in the company not being able to roster efficiently but also in one's body not being able to perform a trip. A body isn't a switch and can't be turned on and off on a whim. And we are not allowed to fly when not fit to do so. Full stop. Roster inefficiencies are exacerbated by individuals being forced to decline a trip which changes at the last minute. With predictable outcomes.
Moreover, continuous lack of stable patterns results in long-term fatigue to humans. Just a fact of life. This opens the door to all kinds of very real physical ailments, some of which can bring a person down for a very long time. So you not only lose your assets in the short term, you lose them for long periods in the long term as well. You burn them out and they break. And then when and if they become fixed you have to devote even more collateral non-value added assets to get them re-current again. Kinda like running a car engine at high speed and never changing the oil or brakes. Investments have maintenance costs associated with them. People are no different.
Last edited by Shep69; 17th Aug 2015 at 18:11.