CR I agree that avoiding the WX is better than crashing. But how do you know it's unlikely you'll be intercepted, or what the consequences might be?
Are you saying they're just incompetent, or less trigger happy than say - the Russians at Sakhalin?
Global events might well play a major role in how trigger happy they are on any particular day - especially along the Taiwan corridor, or around the islands they've grabbed. Time will tell.