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Old 1st Jul 2015, 07:51
  #140 (permalink)  
Pittsextra
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: UK
Posts: 1,120
Received 9 Likes on 8 Posts
As has been said the stock price is telling you what the people with skin in the game think. Its not scare-mongering its the reality of what people think.

Worse of all not even the directors are buying stock at these levels - again that is telling you something.

Then finally if you don't like to take those indicators you can pick the bones out of this:-

http://ir.chc.ca/Cache/1001199412.PD...T=&IID=4293047

CHC Helicopter Corporation - Fiscal Year 2015 Fourth Quarter Conference Call

These guys have a depressed market, their mindset is on consolidation i.e cost cutting, shoring up the balance sheet by cutting debt. But their cash flow is clearly weak and it really seems that future is resting on a hope that the oil price improves and the USD weakens (which given the EU situation isn't happening any time soon). On the fx whats odd is that they show a -ve fx impact on earnings but also show a loss on their fx hedge!! Genius!

The real issue is that if you are an investor or even a customer the question you might ask would be are these guys in the best shape to exploit things if wider market conditions do improve or are they just in survival mode and potentially not even going to exist?

In the Q4 conference call there is questions on Cap-ex which is a real struggle to answer, they don't want to give guidance and one analyst is almost pleading them to throw the investors a bone and give something...He gets nothing. Its clear they are not in a good spot and in this situation for the executive to come to the market and give nothing.... Its a joke.

If I worked for these guys I'd listen to (circa) minute 44 to minute 50.

Last edited by Pittsextra; 1st Jul 2015 at 08:23. Reason: thoughts on the conference call...
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