The politics will be key of course, the politics probably favour LGW, there are no marginal seats around LGW for the Conservatives,
Marginal seats are not an issue because Heathrow expansion is not an issue that determines peoples' votes.
In Brentford and Isleworth, Conservative Mary McLeod made much of her opposition to Heathrow expansion in her election literature, trotting out that well-worn tedious soundbite "make Heathrow better not bigger". She lost.
In Twickenham, Libdem Vince Cable opposed any airport expansion anywhere anytime, toeing the official Libdem line. He lost.
In Richmond Park, Conservative Zac Goldsmith, well known throughout the UK for his opposition to Heathrow expansion, won with a thumping 23,000+ majority.
On the other hand in Spelthorne, Conservative Kwasi Kwarteng, a well known advocate for Heathrow expansion increased his majority.
Ditto for Labour Fiona MacTaggart in Slough.
So no correlation there. There are many reasons why individual MPs won or lost, Heathrow expansion is not one of them. Similarly, the lack of marginal seats at Gatwick also has no bearing on the issue.
Boris will apply huge pressure to avoid a yes for LHR ditto Zac, who is now standing as London Mayor, of course giving the green light to LGW will not solve LHR's capacity issues but will provide a quicker and less expensive capacity jump to the South East.
Indeed, they've allegedly postponed a decision till next year.
The increased din of cans being kicked down the road is now much much louder than aircraft landing or taking off at Heathrow.
Having read the Gatwick submission in full ( a boring standby day !!) it has much merit, the simplicity of the layout is key and the last thing the M25 needs is another major construction project of this size in West London, no underground public access under airport facilities, one motorway access point, centralised car parking are but a few of the public benefits, sadly it doesn't solve the LHR question
......and that is the point!
Alconbury ticked all the boxes for a new airport but, a certain Prime Minister resided under the flight path.
Are you kidding, way too far out!!