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Old 2nd Apr 2015, 03:04
  #2879 (permalink)  
CogSim
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
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Independent events

That doesn't make sense unless you have already changed opinion to considering pilot suicide mass murder as a much higher risk factor than before which i Doubt it is. It will be public perception which will have changed not the risk factor.
Excellent post. Any sensible response to this event has to come as a self instituted change in the way we function not as some cursory change in SOP.

Having said that I have been thinking about the above quoted point. Can deliberate pilot action incidents (if that is what this is) be considered truly independent events (statistically speaking). Probably not, but even if they are not independent events, I agree that the probability might not go up much more.

(Cue statisticians on the forum)
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