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Old 28th Mar 2015, 20:08
  #2406 (permalink)  
TheInquisitor
 
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I've been trying to get some perspective on this - and this is what I've come up with so far.

There have been, so far, 6 recorded incidents of pilot suicide since records began - only 3 of which have been confirmed, the others being 'most likely' / 'no other explanation' events. For the sake of argument, let's add MH370 to that to make it 7.

To get this perspective, I've been trying to get a reliable number for the total number of commercial flights made over that period - and that's been quite difficult. The best I can come up with is somewhere between 450 and 550 million since 1960. (if anybody can come up with a more authoritative number, please feel free)

All of that means that the probability, based on historical statistics, of being caught up in a pilot suicide, are somewhere between 64-78 Million-to-one.

In other words, significantly LESS probable than pretty much ANY other recorded cause of aviation 'occurrences'. In fact, you are MORE likely to be killed as a result of being hit by lightning - by a factor of at least 3.5 (chances of being killed in a lightning strike are 19 million-to-one, in the UK).

Why do I mention this?

It will be no comfort to anybody affected by this tragedy - just as any other statistics will be of any comfort to any other individual affected by an aviation (or any other) tragedy. But the clamour of 'something must be done!!!' needs to be put into context.

It remains the single LEAST likely cause of an 'occurrence' (I say 'occurrence' because it involves a deliberate act, and 'accident' wouldn't be an appropriate description) throughout the whole spectrum of causality.

Let us therefore, as an industry, not act in haste - lest we introduce even MORE unintended consequences that may turn around and bite us in the @rse sometime in the future...
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