I can see a case for EIR expanding especially is IAG want to grow the long haul ex dublin then more feed is needed and EIR or Stobart as they are really are probably quite well placed to provide that capacity, plus quite easy for Stobart to get some regional jets for the thicker routes and longer sectors if further capacity over the atr is required
EI and EI Regional already link over 20 UK airports to DUB.
why would IAG want to build long haul from Dublin? It can only be done by feeding in more peopel from the UK - which will cut into BA's LHR hub
I think the Irish authorities would be mad to agree to this
EI Longhaul at DUB is limited: a handful of USA destinations and YYZ. Perhaps there could be one or two more under IAG ownership, probably at AA hubs/focus cities.
Because of pre-clearance, think that the USA would likely be the focus of any IAG longhaul expansion at DUB, to complement the BA operation at LHR.
Ryanair might well take the money and run - after all IAG will try and move fares upwards and that will only benefit Ryanair - either they can charge more or they can go for market share
Indeed, makes sense for FR, it would never be allowed to takeover EI from an EU competition point of view.
What are my chances of still having thrice daily choice of EI SNN to LHR flights in next winter's schedule if IAG takeover goes ahead?
DH
Quite high, provided the flights have reasonable loads both as point to point and as feeders for BA longhaul at LHR.
For the moment they can't develop LHR as they have no slots, and they have no aircraft.
No, BA has adequate slots at LHR since buying and closing BD, another 9 slot pairs come its way in September from VS. What it's short of, apparently, is sufficient longhaul aircraft.
Plus, they loose a ton of long haul from the regions via KLM, AF, LH, SAS etc, look at the regional airports, they don't travel to Heathrow in great volume, they go via the extensive KLM network.
That is the point, IAG has the opportunity to grab some traffic from the several UK airports that are not linked to LHR, and feed them through DUB giving KL (which is also at over 20 UK airports) some competition on North America routes.
Add into the fact the Dublin has pre clearance for the USA, which I think is highly unlikely to be given to the UK due to the terror threat in this country, and I can see a ton of reasons why they would want to exploit the transatlantic from Dublin, plus it's already being discussed in one of the Irish Broadsheets.
Pre-clearance is a big advantage. Don't think a "terror threat" would prevent pre-clearance in the UK, it's actually a reason to have it. With pre-clearance, an identified potential terrorist could denied boarding.
The reason for not having pre-clearance at LHR is probably that it is too complicated as USA flights are spread accross several terminals. MAN could be a suitable candidate for pre-clearance. Other UK airports may or may not have sufficient numbers of flights to make it cost effective.
Plus it's not just the UK, expanded EI into Europe and bring people via DUB for a quick transfer and pre clearance, it's a win win for BA if you ask me
Probably win-win for both BA and EI.