Future search scenario's
The majority of posters appear to 'vote' for most likely scenario(s) (and versions of those) going like: ‘... an event or upset, leading to a (low speed) stall, no recognition of that stall, or impossible or too late to recover from that stall, and finally the plane hitting the water at an almost even ‘keel’ ...’
I have read interesting comments on other scenario’s though. So I hope those interested in other scenario’s will share comments or suggestions on the following ‘theoretical scenario’.
What would the damage look like, if an almost intact A320 would dive almost straight in?
Keeping in mind the special circumstance in the 8501 case, being that the water is only 28-30m deep. If you take the fuselage length of 37.50 m and subtract the waterdepth of say 29.00 m you get 8.5 m. Now assume that the nose reaches the seafloor. The tail part that ‘sticks out’ is about 8 m. That would roughly be around frame 68-70. Ergo, around the aft strong frame of the aft passenger door?
The exact angle of entry into the water will then determine how the tail section breaks off. Following the earlier ‘production break’ discussion, that could be either just in front, or just behind the aft passenger door. It could also provide a (the section moving ...forward, backward or sideways) break-up scenario for the components of the tail section.
It is possible to think of a path now, that leaves the vertical tail rather undamaged( we can try to match that with the visible fractures – of course trying to exclude damage caused by pulling the tail on board Crest Onyx). And losing the APU and the THS. Where perhaps (see earlier posted scenario’s) the tail section with tail floated before it became water logged, anchored, and overturned. But now the THS also floated before becoming water logged. And therefore it is possible it will be found a bit further away.
I did some tower diving in the past from 10-12 m. When you get in under even a small angle with the vertical, your spine is bent, quite a force, so would fuselage show a kind of water dampened whip 'reflex'. Always very complex to make dynamic stress calculations ... but ...
Answers to these questions might be of some assistence in future searches. Till this accident it seemed most likely, if anything was found on the surface, find vertical tail or rudder first. Would it help to give SAR crews a description of most probably objects to look for. Also helping to separate ocean garbage from aircraft components and fragments.