Originally Posted by
quackers
I'm sure most posters will recall the Ethiopian Airways hijacking back in 1996 (Boeing 767) in which 125 of the 175 persons onboard perished. The pilot ditched the aircraft a couple of miles off the African coast, which was a large factor in the survival of 50. The ditching was recorded on video by a tourist from the beach and is easily found via Google.
As with the Airbus, the 767 has engines below the wing and, as the aircraft hits the water the first break-away is the empennage. I believe the cockpit also broke away (both pilots survived). One can only imagine the terrific forces involved when the engines hit the water, acting as massive water dams - hence the transference of stresses throughout the aircraft and its breaking up. The outcome of that incident bears some uncanny comparisons with this latest tragedy in the way that the hull has apparently seperated.
No doubt the true cause of this incident will be revealed during the next few days/weeks but I am of the opinion (for what it's worth) that the aircraft sustained complete/partial electrical & engine failure in the eye of the storm and the pilot(s) attempted a ditching as per the Ethiopian incident. I cannot see that an Airbus can fall from 32,000 feet and break into such large pieces upon contact with the water - at god knows what speed.
AFR447 fell from 38,000ft and the aircraft broke into similar parts as the Air Asia aircraft. The A330 was dropping at around 11,000fpm (125mph) with very little forward speed. The aircraft debris field was more compact as the underwater currents were not as strong, unlike the stormy sea and strong currents in the latest crash.
As A0283 posted earlier these breaks tend to occur close to the strengthened interfaces - production breaks - between major components. This explains the similarity in components of the debris after very different accidents.