F-35 Cancelled, then what ?

[GreenKnight121]

Unlike many, I was paying attention back on 2000-2002, and the RAF was pushing for the STOVL variant as a Harrier replacement, for short-range CAS and damaged/improvised runway operations. The RN was also looking specifically for a Sea Harrier replacement, and had planned for ~30,000 ton carriers in the late 1990s - basically larger Invincibles.

This was at a time when a separate aircraft/system was envisioned to replace Tornado, so long range and/or heavy payload were not part of the calculation that led to selection of the F-35B on 30 September 2002. Additionally, it was only in 2002 that the RN formally declared that the size of the carriers had grown to >50,000 tons - not to immediately enable larger or catapult-launched aircraft, but to allow sufficient internal volume for more stores, future growth (see below), and to allow dual use as an LPH (thus having room for troops and their equipment/supplies). The size was also driven by the more efficient operations (including a higher sortie rate) the larger flight deck would enable.

The RN had only this to say about catapults:

The carriers, expected to remain in service for 50 years, will be convertible to CATOBAR operations for the generation of aircraft after the F-35 JCA.

In other words, sometime after ~30 years of operation.


So:
1. Both services were looking for a direct Harrier/Sea Harrier replacement only.
2. The carriers were originally planned around STOVL operations, with a slow shift to allowing the possibility of future catapult operations only appearing late in the day - the RN had NOT been looking for a US-style attack carrier at all!