It's approximately 280 days until the next UK general election, let alone 50 odd days until the Scottish Independence referendum. Against this political background I would suggest an MPA buy/lease either has to happen NOW, or it will have stormy political seas to navigate very soon.
A "yes" vote in the Scottish referendum in September is likely to create chaos in MOD (and indeed every major government department) with a frantic scramble to sort out and execute, or at least start to execute, the implications in approx. 18 months. This is most likely to create extra expenditure in the MOD in the short term (new facilities to provide an adequate base for SSBNs for example), making the funding of a new project problematic, with delays if not cancellation highly likely.
If, and all we have so far are unsubstantiated rumors from Sun Who and an MP on a fishing expedition, the MOD are seriously on the acquisition trail for P-8s, is/will the Labour party be on board? With the rise in UKIP likely to impact hard on the Tories, a Labour government is a distinct possibility, and I can't see any new Defence minister committing to £1Bn odd of "new" expenditure without a long hard think, especially if it does nothing for jobs in the UK (yes, I know, that shouldn't matter, but it does to politicians, and ultimately they make the decisions). Once again delays, and possible cancellation are a distinct possibility.
So, if it's going to happen - NOW is the best moment!
The next 18 months could see anything between a maintenance of the status quo, or a massive change in the political landscape of this country (countries).
Last edited by Biggus; 28th Jul 2014 at 15:07.