Ulric,
Your last post claimed to rebut mine by pointing out that the turn point was not known. Good grief - where do I claim that it is? All I'm trying to do is accurately build the ATSB's first two performance models - for this project, then, "correct" means "what they were using as an assumption", not "where the plane actually turned". Please stay with me on that concept.
Why do I have confidence that my starting point - NW tip of Indonesia - is an accurate depiction of what the ATSB was assuming in late March?
1) That's what they said they used. On page 5 of their report. That was their assumed turn point for both March 17-27 (per p.5) and March 28-April 1 (per Appendix A) performance limits.
2) I have independently replicated their endurance line using a systematic endurance vs speed study from a paper by Delgado/Prats. When I calibrate one point of their model to the ATSB's endurance line, I find the Delgado/Prats model matches the ATSB line almost perfectly. The green line in my illustration is, in fact, the Delgado/Prats result. If I had a materially wrong starting turn point, the two curves (ATSB, Delgado/Prats) would have diverged. They match.
Last edited by Wind_Tunnel; 25th Jul 2014 at 20:32.
Reason: concision