But even if the crew is overcome by smoke, hypoxia, etc - then there's the question of how the plane stays in the air for seven hours with a fire burning in the hold.
Thanks jugofpropwash for your response. It’s a valid point and something I thought about while composing the post. I certainly don’t have any answers. There was only a small quantity and maybe, if they caught fire, the fire burned out. You would imagine other parts of the aircraft would have also caught, or other pieces of cargo, so it’s a long bow to draw. As we know strange things have happened in aviation, but that’s hardly an adequate answer either.
The last paragraph was purely my conjecture and I don’t think your point alters the thrust of scenario C – a major event. Time will tell and that will only be known when the orange boxes are found, but I think this scenario is far more plausible than the previous ones.
The other point is the heading. The turn back was in a general south west direction but the last known radar trace was roughly west. It’s the same as above, who knows what was in the FMC? Maybe another waypoint or discontinuity - but purely conjecture again.
I made a spelling mistake and edited this out. It’s been a long time since I’ve visited Pprune and in an excellent example of finger trouble think I deleted my post in the process. With apologies to those who read it in the mean time I’ve copied it here:
I guess I’m no different to a lot of us. Throughout this whole tragic episode my anger has been steadily rising. It’s not just the disinformation but the so called experts who’ve conjured up theories based on what is obviously minimal aviation experience, if any. I can’t begin to imagine how this cuts into those poor people who’ve suffered so much already.
MH370 took off and climbed to cruising level. The ACARS sent out its routine 30 minute report. Shortly after voice communication was lost along with the transponder. The aircraft made a turn and the next 30 minute ACARS report didn’t send. Up until this point the flight operated normally with communication routine. From this three theories have been put forward.
A: Someone from the Popular Front for the Liberation of Somewhere seized the aircraft. This someone had an in depth understanding of the Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System, was a wiz with the Flight Director Autopilot System and had a deft hand when it came to the Flight Management Computer System.
Manipulating the controls, or forcing the pilots to, the hijacker is flush with a sense of satisfaction - this act of piracy will at last focus the world’s attention on the plight of the PFFTLOS.
There’s only one problem here, which should have been evident after a few days – and certainly after almost two weeks.
To add weight to this theory some expert from the Centre for Who Really Cares suggested the standard FIR handoff was a perfect position to turn the transponder off. As this was a sort of ‘No man’s land’ such a devious act would go unnoticed. We could talk about ATC coordination but suffice to say commercial RPT aircraft don’t fly in no man’s land.
B: A decent family man who’s been a loyal employee and worked his way up to check airman in MAS suddenly decides to make a radical political statement. Sure it was a Murdoch publication (so what would you expect?) but is someone in Australia who leans to Bill Shorten’s philosophy a radical extremist?
The FO is a young guy recently promoted from the 737 to the Tripler. His whole career ahead he will shortly marry.
They didn’t ask to be assigned together and if not acting in concert one would have to disable the other. The cockpit door is the most feasible theory but the question remains.
Here the scenario branches to; I’ve had enough - I can’t take it anymore – goodbye cruel world … in seven hours while in the mean time I sip on a brew or two from the Cameron Highlands.
I can’t believe some of these journalists, but then again pathetic journalism is nothing new. With the transponder out the aircraft disappeared off the radar. Radar’s been around since World War II. The transponder, as we know, identifies the radar blip. How do we know the aircraft flew back across Malaysia? It was tracked on radar. MH370 lost its ident but was the same physical object the radar beams bounced off seconds before.
Our simulator sessions are built on operational experience. Every time we do a sim check what happens? We take off and sometime after we have a problem. The problem is always serious enough so as not to continue the flight. We either return to our departure airport or an alternate. It’s a command decision but if serious enough the QRH is explicit – LAND AT THE NEAREST SUITABLE AIRPORT.
The radios are out, the transponder is out and contrary to first reports the ACARS ceased to function sometime between its standard 30 minute reports. It’s probably not a leap in faith to assume this happened when the other communication devices were lost. Who would continue on to Beijing? Through several FIRs, change altitude into metres, three different STARS assigned during the approach and numerous runway changes to add interest.
If you’ve flown a 737 around Malaysia and the region then you get very familiar with the airways and waypoints. Kuala Lumpur would be OK and Penang would be good. There are others as other pilots have pointed out. It would be a quick entry, if not the airway then a quick WMKK or WMKP. Entered into the FMCS and executed Lateral Nav will point the aircraft in the right direction and if not then Heading Select.
There were earlier reports of a climb to 1900’ above the service ceiling and then a dive to 23,000’. I haven’t heard any more of these and assume it went the same way as the erroneous ACARS report. If an event major enough to knock out the communications system then chances are there’ll be other damage. And so to what I believe is the most plausible theory.
C: The aircraft suffered a major problem. The pilots started working through the checklists and decided on an air return. Whatever the problem it was serious and some with greater aircraft engineering knowledge than me have suggested this led to a depressurisation. Whatever happened incapacitated the pilots. The aircraft flew on in LNAV or HDG SEL and at the MCP/VNAV altitude. If in LNAV and passing over the last waypoint the mode changed to HDG HOLD, as per its design. Returning in this direction was roughly South West and further south into the prevailing westerly winds. For a trip to Beijing there was approximately 8 hours endurance. Some used for climb and then traversing West Malaysia would mean, again approximately, 7 hours.
I didn’t make scenario C up. I added a bit from my local knowledge but it’s been out there. So why today do I open the paper and read the same old crap slandering two people, unable to defend themselves, who more than likely were busting their guts trying to save the aircraft and all on it? Some moron talked about ghosting, as if you could fly a 777 just below another aircraft through all the busy airways, some two-way, funnelling in and fanning out, level changes and the rest.
Now I will go out on a limb. It’s pure conjecture and I don’t pretend to have any expertise but it’s something I’m conscious of as I fly both passenger and freighter aircraft. Nearly every time I fly they’re there. In the cargo machines they can be half the load. In the pax aircraft they’re in the hold. I know they’re allowed and shipped in accordance with all the rules and regulations. But that was the case with the other types, before they brought down the UPS and Asiana 744Fs.
It was the one question I had and it wasn’t until today, buried deep in a secondary article, that this question was answered. A small quantity, all packed, shipped and loaded in accordance with the guidelines. But they were there.