Originally Posted by
rigbyrigz
Just from the perspective of technical feasibility, with no real theory (new or proposed) resulting:
a) pilot (or someone) pre-programs left-turn VAMPI before IGARI is reached. This is before 1:07 and so appears as an ACARS event
If the pilot or the F/O had pre-programmed VAMPI after IGARI, then you would see the aircraft turning left over IGARI or, much probably, slightly before IGARI. That simple. This is what you see every day when your aircraft is following the flight plan stored in the FMC. The right turn observed on the secondary radar and confirmed by official sources
does not support a scenario with VAMPI programmed as next waypoint. No way. In my opinion, the turn from 25° to 40° is a clear indication that the aircraft was still following the original flight plan to BITOD. And if you track any other flight of MAS370 (now MAS318) on flightradar24, you can see that this is exactly what happens every day with that flight as soon as it reaches IGARI.
I have no clue what the aircraft did after it turned off the transponder and disappeared from radar. However, I think it is safe to say that it was still following its original standard flight plan WMKK-ZBAA until the last blip reported by the secondary radar.
b) ACARS off or gone, no more events logged and reported
c) pilot (or someone) programs or turns 40 degree course correction for reasons unknown, but could be to lessen suspicion of Vietnam ATC. No ACARS so no record of this
I don't get your point. What do you mean with "someone programs a turn to 40°"? If you push HDG and select 40°, then the FMC is overridden and the aircraft follows your inputs, no matter whether the next waypoint programmed on FMC is also on 40°, or maybe 265°, 190° or whatever. And which is the logic in pre-programming a waypoint clearly off-course (VAMPI) then? Sorry, I can't see the rationale.
d) as soon as 40 degree turn is achieved, then left 180 degrees to VAMPI, no ACARS now so no report of this...
"As soon as 40 degree turn is achieved" means that the aircraft was still following its original flight plan on FMC to BITOD. Very simple. I can't see any other explanation.
Obviously it may actually have turned 180° left after it disappeared from radar, however I see no evidence that a "left-turn had been pre-programmed on the FMC" as reported by Daily Mail and other junk media. The behavior of MAS370 on radar does not support this claim.