How do you know all that?
The government engaged PwC and co. to look at the debt guarantee. The government have stated that PwC and co. found no immediate reason for the debt guarantee. If PwC and co. saw looming funding/refinancing problems with Qantas debt/liabilities, they would have said so. This is the reputation of PwC in play here as well, they would have looked at near term debt refinancing.
The government debt guarantee was to be unsecured. Qantas could not come up with a reason for it. Did Qantas say they needed it to refinance debt? No! So why did Qantas want the urgent debt guarantee? Qantas has no major refinance due until 2015. Capital expenditure has been quashed. Qantas has $2.8b or odd in cash and undrawn credit. If nothing changed at all, they have several years of negative cash flow available. Finally, when the Qantas bluff was called, they backed straight down, why did they back down so readily? All this leads me to believe that the debt guarantee was simply about ending the capacity war as Virgin would have realised the $3b would change the game again. If Qantas got the debt guarantee, it would have sent a clear message to the owners of Virgin to back off, as pouring more money in would be futile. I truly believe it is that simple.
This is not to say Qantas is without some very severe structural problems. It is burning cash and would eventually face difficulties with financing. It needs to start generating positive cash. It's not good, but it's not dire!