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Old 17th Dec 2013, 05:17
  #1102 (permalink)  
Sunfish
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: moon
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Qantas has been managed so badly for so long that the only rational explanation is that the major shareholders want to minimise the share price to buy what they don't already own and take the business private.

The first attempt was the DIxon and Gregg takeover attempt. That failed, but the $5.+ offer price gives you an indication of what the airline is worth in the hands of a competent management motivated to maximise long term shareholder value.

After the failure of that bid, the second attempt was to install incompetent management committed to a fantasy business strategy that had no chance of working in order to drive the share price down so that an on market fire sale might be possible without the U.S. Hedge funds trying to blackmail management - as they did with the APA bid.

This strategy is/was possible. The only serious tremor was when Alan tied up with EMirates - offering QF a lifeline. The explosion from the former APA partners at Alans temerity made the press - which tells you all you need to know about motives.

My guess is that the APA Boyz are now lobbying the government NOT to bail out Qantas and instead let the tender mercies of the market deliver it to DIxon.

DIxon et als strategy on takeover is simple and direct.

1. Secure finance.

2. Roll JQ into Qantas, the JQ brand is worthless.

3. Cut loose/sell/kill the Asian subsidiaries, that was never going to work, never will work.

4. As a private company, renegotiate all awards, agreements, etc, with a profit sharing plan included. Employ competent HR people.

5. Cut destroy slash excessive layers of management. I would take the Wal Mart approach - eat your own dog food. All executive staff travel is in economy and NO exceptions, find a Fyffe to lead by example, that fixes morale.

6. Run a major rebranding advertising campaign, Singleton would have one ready to go now.

7. Lobby the Federal Government like mad to build barriers to entry again.

P.S. The fleet composition, new aircraft, etc. can be solved. Just go to Airbus and Boeing and state what you think you want and when you want it, the manufacturers are very creative people, Boeing gave us a tremendous deal at Ansett.

P.P.S. My guess is that Qantas is now running on the cash stuffed in all those hollow accounting logs that Dixon stuffed before the APA bid. THat is why Alan is desperate - no more hollow logs (eg depreciation, provisions, prepayments).
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