Capt Underpants
I think most of what you say is correct apart from the fact that it's only Ab Initio non HKID card holder applicants that the HK Immigration has a problem with.
The reason for the locals only recruitment at the moment is because CX grossly miscalculated how many SO's they needed hence a huge number who have interviewed and or passed flight grading waiting for start dates. They no longer need more than a trickle for now so locals will be able to make the numbers. Even if your local and qualify for the AE course you will have to sit through the whole ab course with the no timers as there aren't enough locals with hours to run the AE course.
If CX was so forward thinking and visionary they wouldn't have interviewed so many people in the first place. It's not immigration causing the problem it's HR not doing the numbers properly and screwing everyone around.
One poster here a few months back said he had never seen so many SO's on the bottom of the seniority list. No upgrades and no new planes means no movement.