Well, that is your opinion, but it is a rather tortured logic.
That's only for CTC which has already been said is different.
Not really. They currently have a good market share, but they are no more or less immune to the market forces of supply and demand than is anybody else.
And if there isn't a significant number of people going through these courses and washing out into the market with everyone else for the none shiny jet jobs the current capacity can't be maintained. And if the capacity goes it takes years to gear up to get it back
Again supply and demand. In the cadet pilot "market" these schools are the principal suppliers. They are the principal suppliers for all of the reasons I have already stated. The jobs or placements for graduating "cadets" is also a function of supply and demand in the airline market. The volatility of the latter and the roughly two year lead time for supply is invariably going to result in frequent instability. That is unfortunate, but it is a fact of commercial life. If for some reason the supply of well trained cadets were to dry up to tomorrow, then the airlines concerned wouldn't be throwing up their hands in horror. They would simply satisfy their recruitment requirements from the established experienced labour markets. Most already do this. We take roughly equal third measures of cadets, experienced type rate pilots and experienced non-type rated (including ex-military) pilots. If one supply source becomes difficult it is relatively simple to switch to another.
And if they only took what was required the cost of the courses would nearly double.
They don't know what is required. They can make an educated guess, but they cannot possibly know. It is basic tenet of economics, that prices usually rise when demand outstrips supply, and fall when supply outstrips demand.
Once Ezy stop expanding which they pretty much have with all routes that can support a med Jet being supplied already by the loco's. They also have a relatively young Captains base. So then it will be dead mans shoes for job openings or reduction of flying hours as per Ryanair have been doing to be earning a pittance with the loans to fund.
Who knows? The expansion of the
Lo-co's has been providing much of the "demand" in the jobs market throughout the post 2008 global recession. However it isn't the only demand. As those large companies consolidate, so other more established companies who have been taking a lean & mean approach to their own cost bases in recent years, may well increase their own recruitment.
Yes I can understand you want to keep the capacity up. Once gone its gone and things get very expensive very quickly. But there just isn't the demand in the market to keep the current capacity in the supply.
It is of no interest to me what "capacity" is kept up. Within the presumed context, that is a matter for the training schools. That is a function of their business plan and how they see their own place within that particular market. Their capacity has no particular bearing on a partner airlines cost base. Training cadets (within an airline) is expensive. It is very expensive on scarce training resources, and any direct savings are usually limited to around 18 months. At that point (certainly as far as we are concerned) the cadet simply becomes a pilot employee on an identical cost structure as with any other pilot at their salary point. The fact that there is cadet scheme in place, provides fast track opportunities to a number of low hour pilots each year. We also offer engineering apprenticeships and administrative employment to school leavers.
Wanabees coming to these forums (however realistic or serious they may or may not be,) are frequently looking for the
fast track routes into major airlines. Those routes are few, fiercely competitive, and extremely difficult on so many levels. Nevertheless, they do exist and there are often specific criteria that need to be met, to even be in with a chance for one of them. I would be astonished if even 1% of anybody who expresses an opinion here or reads these threads were to embark on this route. Of those that do embark upon substantive training towards the goal of a CPL, I would be just as surprised if more than 5% embarked (by choice or selection) to an airline orientated integrated CPL/IR course with one of the major players in this market. However, some will, and it is from this group that the
fast track opportunities (however few or many there are at any given point in time,) are likely to be found.
The gamble of the family's assets is not viable in my opinion.
Yes, then don't do it. However for many people it will not be an insurmountable problem. It will nearly always be a risk. Raising large sums of finance for many things can be just as much of a risk or a speculative venture.
Indeed if you are going to argue that it is unwise to risk £90K at the roulette wheel playing red or black, then it is even more unwise to risk £50K on the
numbers when the odds of winning are exponentially even more unlikely and the potential reward sums exactly the same (although particularly in the case of the latter there may be a £30K charge to collect!)
So yes if they make the grade for the wings course go for it. But if they are offered anything else and the failure to progress to the shiny jet job would hamper/ cause financial grief for the family. The odds are its going to happen. If financially its just money on paper disappearing from the kids inheritance, again pay for what you like and I wish you every success.
I think I would broadly agree with this. However there are opportunities within some of these schools to assume a greater element of risk and follow the same course. In other words prove their initial assessment wrong, or prove yourself during the course. For those that are successful (and many are) the placement and subsequent job opportunities may well be offered upon or after completion. If you are borrowing sums of money that would ruin you, then yes don't do it. Don't do it for a "wings" course. Don't do it to play the stock market. Don't do it for any non essential reason.
On the other hand, if after a great deal of your own research, deliberation, risk awareness, and honesty, you decide that it is a viable option and you are committed to it, then make sure you understand exactly what it is that you want, and the realistic costs and practicalities of just how you might get there.