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Old 6th Sep 2013, 00:50
  #1231 (permalink)  
Toadstool
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
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So more pieces to the puzzle.

BBC News - UK has new Syria chemical evidence - David Cameron

IMHO, this actually adds nothing to the debate which is based on one one of the following scenarios:

1. There was no chemical weapons attack in Damascus.
2. The Regime forces used chemical weapons against the rebels.
3. A Regime Commander used chemical weapons against the rebels without the authority of Al Assad.
4. The rebel forces used chemical weapons either by accident or on purpose.

The possibilities and outcomes of these scenarios, again IMHO are:

1. There was a chemical weapons attack in Damascus. The fact that we are awaiting the results from Porton Down or from the UN Weapons Inspectors is almost superfluous. The fact that there was some sort of chemical weapons attack has never really been in doubt. I suppose the US and those clamouring for action are trying to strengthen the case for military action of some sort by building up the evidence piece by piece.
2. This appears to be the stance by those advocating some sort of response against the Al Assad regime. The Germans, who want action but will not act themselves, have evidence of a Hizbollah commander reporting to Iran that Al Assad panicked and ordered this attack in response to attacks against Regime forces in Damascus. Hearsay or more evidence? The French, against all public opinion in France are ready to act with the US. The US are willing to act, partly based on Israeli intercept of a panicked Syrian MOD phone call asking a chemical weapons unit WTF just happened. This could be evidence of Al Assad ordering an attack without the MOD knowing .....or....
3. I imagine that Al Assad would have sole responsibility to order such an attack which makes the rogue officer scenario unlikely. That said, if this was a rogue officer interpreting orders incorrectly, does this make the case for military action against the regime?
4. There are just as many reports out there which suggest that this may have been mishandling of chemical weapons by rebel forces. There are fewer reports which indicate that rebel forces may have used these weapons on purpose.Either way, given this nightmare scenario, how would the world act?

Which ever way you look at it, with the US fleet, Russian fleet and now the possible arrival of a Chinese vessel, things are certainly hotting up. I do not envy Barrack Obama. That said, I certainly don't envy the Syrian people who are the losers whatever happens, unless we actually think that a surgical strike would somehow enable a regime change leading to democratic elections and a peaceful Syria. Somehow I can't see this happening in the short term.

Last edited by Toadstool; 6th Sep 2013 at 00:53.
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