The unemployment rate of India is 9.9 %
Yes but the "employment" rate for CPL holders must be around 9.9 %. I am sure i am not off the mark by much when i say that. The net capacity addition to the combined fleet of scheduled operators in the past 4 years has been less than 80. Number of FOs required? About 400. Lets assume another 200 positions were created due to promotions of existing FOs. Why just 200? Due to the availability of ex-military pilots with good quantity and quality of experience and low quality of civilian FOs. Lets say another 100 got jobs in the surprisingly small general aviation of the country. So around 700 people recruited in the last 4 years. Number of CPLs issued in the last 4 years alone? About 5000!!
So when you say that:
if you take out the statistics of the employment and vacancies for the last 4 years, you will notice a reasonable number of CPL holders with or without TR got hired.
, i beg to differ with your opinion.
when a vast multitude of people left for US,Canada Australia etc to get their CPL in 2006-2007 then there were not 6000 pilots sitting unemployed back at home, people who were getting back with CPL did not have to compete with 6000 competitors for a job, probably then they did not make a bad decision by getting into flying. but,now in 2013, if anyone wish to get a CPL,probably then he's on a career suicide path. consequences will be much worse.
Agree.
You are wrong, people are leaving for the type rating because they know airlines are creating more and more openings for the type rated people and they are preferring type rated pilots over the CPL lots. They know if they will get the rating then their prospect of getting into an airline will become much bright over the Non-typerated ones. (bright only for aspirants with aptitude and brains).
Agree. But what is going to happen in a year or two? Instead of just plain CPL holders cribbing about unemployment, we will have a sizable number of type rated CPL holders cribbing about unemployment. The size of Indian aviation is just not big enough to absorb a "reasonable" percentage of the unemployed CPL holders with or without a type rating!
I believe in free market dynamics. If people want to spend 45-50 lakhs just to attain the privilege to apply for a job in a fledgling industry, its their choice. But when making an investment, there is something known as "stop-loss." CPL holders who have not yet got a type-rating might want to read about it.
IndiGo conducted exams every month for more than a year from May 2010 to August 2011.
Really? That is news for me! No wonder they have a surplus of pilots now. No wonder they have put their Mar 2012 recruitment on hold and haven't yet declared the results of the April 2013 written.
So, if the above statistics which I presented about the vacancies and recruitment by different airlines are true then please tell me how did I spread misinformation when I said conditions have gone better in the last 4 years.
I suspect we have different methods of estimating the number of FOs hired. I use the number of aircraft inducted by operators. You seem to use the number of recruitment exercises. The reason why i don't use the recruitment exercises is because it does not come from official sources and is generally only word of the mouth. Sometimes just rumors.
The number of aircraft with different airlines in India can be verified from DGCA's website. Where can i go to find out the number of people hired by airlines?
Whether the conditions have gone better or worse can simply be judged by the eligibility requirements for airline positions. When airlines, especially the national airline, start asking for TR for most of the vacancies then i would not say that conditions have gone better. Infact with more and more people getting their CPLs everyday, the employment situation is getting worse.