My view of the future is a little more dystopian Tailwheel. When institutions go bad through corruption, for that is what we are talking about, the industry won't die, instead it will devolve to an African model.
What differentiates western first world economies from Third World economies is the levels of trust and cooperation in the society. This has been ignored by economists, wrongly, because the level of trust is inversely proportional to the transaction costs in doing business.
The less we trust CASA and vice versa, the more expensive it becomes to conduct business as both sides fight to protect themselves from each other. The net result is that nobody benefits because business just isn't transacted.
To put that another way, suppose you see an opportunity to build a sight seeing operation, you figure the market is big enough for four aircraft, Ten pilots and Two mechanics plus support staff. However our hypothetical corrupt regulator decides to sting you for establishment "fees" of $200,000 and ongoing costs associated with "audits" - in other words, a huge and ongoing transaction cost burden that adds no value to the business. Once you realize this, you forget about investing and everyone loses, tourists, investors and employees alike. The economy accordingly stops growing.
As a practical example, I dived in New Guinea with a well know live aboard operator. Few times. He eventually was forced out of the country by the burden of "fees" and the constant requests for "gifts" from officials of all sorts. Everyone lost, divers, local employees, the villagers who "owned" various dive sites, etc.
What will happen in Australia is that if you are "mates" with CASA then you will be allowed to operate provided you supply the lunches, free trips, "Christmas Presents", etc. that will become customary. The loser will be the Australian economy.
Last edited by Sunfish; 8th Jun 2013 at 01:05.