Political wall.
The mathematics of gambling, or the laws of probability and complex systems have long fascinated me. For the amusement and delight of the Bar Room Barristers a 'book' with tote odds is often opened and beers are bet (that means shouts, so a one beer bet can get expensive). A book for the current Senate Inquiry was proposed and for the first time ever, I not too reluctantly declined.
There are too many imponderables to consider; Creamy has some parts of the negative correctly identified, Sunny adds to the matrix while generating further (unqualifiedly) aspects, such as public service mandarins with long sharp knives. Frank, Oleo and Sarcs provide equally variable options. All valid and to some extent, quantifiable.
Parts of the equation which puzzle are el Jefe's fury, the general disgust of the committee, residual anger from being 'white-papered' by their previous inquiry, a natural response to being treated with utter contempt (see AMROBA). Then there is the wonderful bipartisan atmosphere, Searle becoming a significant 'team' player. Then the certain knowledge that if there is another cock up like PA resulting in an international full audit or a down grade; the bone will be well and truly pointed at the politicos who took the soft options. This renders the selection of a coefficient well nigh impossible.
Then there are the variables to consider, e.g. the percentage chance of a preventable accident occurring have increased, due to several factors: among them a persistent arrogant disdain for accepting external suggestions from industry, coroners, overseas expert bodies or CASA generated and ignored evidence. The departure of good, honest, qualified, expert men (and women) and the almost useless replacement parts, makes identification of the variable very blurred.
There are one or two constants; for example, Xenophon has been a steady, able supporter of matters aeronautical and must, by now have a fairly good grip on the essentials: Fawcett is an able, qualified, experienced man and I believe a honest one. There are many other contestants which may be drafted into the equation.
But the real head scratching, bung twister is industry expression and public reaction to being spoon fed CASA manipulated safety reports which should provide a solid base line for mathematically reducing the odds against anyone ever going for an involuntary swim, fully clothed in the middle of the night; but don't. Once you accept being bullied, subjugated, or swindled – you're stuck with it. Bit like the old saw about boiling frogs.
Nope, you guys are braver, bolder men than I am to call it, but the equation S@i#t in :: S*it% out seems to hold.
Coffee Minnie – oh, and cancel the GWM meeting; Gobbles has got the Skype working.
Last edited by Kharon; 2nd May 2013 at 22:26.
Reason: PAIN - 2600 for the ICAO choccy frog comp.